ECAM ETF TRADING SERVICE (BETA)
** NOTE:
The ETF trading service is currently within Beta testing and is subject to revision. We provide the following information to allow subscribers to become acquainted with our methodology and an opportunity to monitor the trading systems performance using "paper-trading". Those who choose to use the signals in live brokerage accounts do so at their own risk.
The ETF trading service is currently within Beta testing and is subject to revision. We provide the following information to allow subscribers to become acquainted with our methodology and an opportunity to monitor the trading systems performance using "paper-trading". Those who choose to use the signals in live brokerage accounts do so at their own risk.
LEGAL DISCLAIMER
Emirates Capital Asset Management (ECAM) is not a registered investment advisor in the United Arab Emirates and does not provide personalized financial or investment advice tailored to individual financial or personal circumstances. ECAM’s Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) trading program is an automated, algorithmic strategy analysis tool designed to generate trade signals based on the evaluation of a predefined set of funds.
The ETF trading strategy is not intended to replace diversified, multi-asset investments within a comprehensive retirement fund account. Due to the inherent volatility of this strategy, it may not be suitable for all investors. ECAM strongly advises that you carefully assess the appropriateness of this program for your financial objectives and consult a registered investment advisor if you are uncertain about the suitability of ETF trading strategies in meeting your personal financial goals.
By choosing to utilize ECAM’s ETF trading strategy, you acknowledge and agree to the following terms:
Past performance of any fund or strategy, including back-tested returns, is provided solely for illustrative purposes and reflects historical market conditions. Such performance does not guarantee future results or the recurrence of similar market conditions. It is your sole responsibility to evaluate the suitability of any provided information for your investment portfolio objectives and to bear full responsibility for the performance outcomes of your portfolio.
Under no circumstances shall Emirates Capital Asset Management or its affiliates be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, punitive, or consequential damages arising from your use, non-use, or reliance on the provided information, or resulting from errors, omissions, interruptions, deletions, defects, delays in operation or transmission, or any failure of performance.
The ETF trading strategy is not intended to replace diversified, multi-asset investments within a comprehensive retirement fund account. Due to the inherent volatility of this strategy, it may not be suitable for all investors. ECAM strongly advises that you carefully assess the appropriateness of this program for your financial objectives and consult a registered investment advisor if you are uncertain about the suitability of ETF trading strategies in meeting your personal financial goals.
By choosing to utilize ECAM’s ETF trading strategy, you acknowledge and agree to the following terms:
- You assume full fiduciary responsibility for all investment decisions made.
- You possess the capability to independently evaluate investment risks, both generally and in relation to specific transactions and strategies.
- You understand that determining appropriate asset allocations or the adequacy of an estimated income stream requires consideration of your other assets, income sources, and investments.
- You acknowledge that ETF trading carries inherent risks, including the potential loss of investment capital, and you accept full responsibility for any financial losses incurred.
Past performance of any fund or strategy, including back-tested returns, is provided solely for illustrative purposes and reflects historical market conditions. Such performance does not guarantee future results or the recurrence of similar market conditions. It is your sole responsibility to evaluate the suitability of any provided information for your investment portfolio objectives and to bear full responsibility for the performance outcomes of your portfolio.
Under no circumstances shall Emirates Capital Asset Management or its affiliates be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, punitive, or consequential damages arising from your use, non-use, or reliance on the provided information, or resulting from errors, omissions, interruptions, deletions, defects, delays in operation or transmission, or any failure of performance.
CLICK THE BELOW MAGENTA LINK TO ACCESS THE CURRENT ETF TRADING SELECTIONS
STRATEGY OVERVIEW
The Emirates Capital Asset Management (ECAM) ETF Trading Strategy is a sophisticated algorithmic trading program designed to select the optimal ETF (the "trend leader") from a carefully curated universe of ETFs determined by ECAM. The strategy aims to deliver capital gains that surpass the historical performance of the S&P 500 Index, our designated benchmark, while prioritizing lower risk and minimized portfolio drawdowns.
In bull market conditions, the algorithm identifies the ETF exhibiting the strongest momentum within the predefined universe. During periods of weakening bull markets, the strategy incorporates a defensive sector backstop mechanism, which evaluates the momentum of defensive assets to establish a performance floor for the momentum leader selection process. In bear market environments, the strategy shifts to a risk-averse approach, aiming to achieve positive returns by selecting momentum leaders from a group of defensive ETFs, including bonds, treasuries, gold, and other low-risk assets.
The strategy leverages advanced algorithmic techniques, including matched filter theory, differential signal processing, and forward-walk progressive tuning, complemented by AI-driven fuzzy logic and feedback loops. These technologies enhance the model’s ability to adapt dynamically and strengthen its defensive capabilities across varying market conditions.
In bull market conditions, the algorithm identifies the ETF exhibiting the strongest momentum within the predefined universe. During periods of weakening bull markets, the strategy incorporates a defensive sector backstop mechanism, which evaluates the momentum of defensive assets to establish a performance floor for the momentum leader selection process. In bear market environments, the strategy shifts to a risk-averse approach, aiming to achieve positive returns by selecting momentum leaders from a group of defensive ETFs, including bonds, treasuries, gold, and other low-risk assets.
The strategy leverages advanced algorithmic techniques, including matched filter theory, differential signal processing, and forward-walk progressive tuning, complemented by AI-driven fuzzy logic and feedback loops. These technologies enhance the model’s ability to adapt dynamically and strengthen its defensive capabilities across varying market conditions.
FUND UNIVERSE
Emirates Capital Asset Management (ECAM) provides the following list of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) utilized within our trading programs. We recognize that our global subscriber base may face varying levels of access to U.S.-listed ETFs, depending on their brokerage accounts. For investors seeking broader access to the complete universe of U.S.-listed ETFs, we recommend considering Interactive Brokers. This brokerage operates in multiple international jurisdictions and offers full access to U.S. ETF markets, which may enhance your ability to participate in our trading strategies.
BULL MARKET ETF UNIVERSE
|
SPY
SPYG QQQ IWY SPEU EEM |
S&P 500
S&P 500 Growth ETF NASDAQ 100 iShares Russell Top 200 Growth ETF SPDR Portfolio Europe ETF iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF |
BULL MARKET SECTOR BACKSTOP ETF UNIVERSE
|
XLB
XLE XLK XLV XLY XLP IAU DBC IEI ICSH QQQ XLRE |
Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund iShares Gold Trust Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF iShares Ultra Short Duration Bond Active ETF Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund |
BEAR MARKET ETF UNIVERSE
|
IEF
GLD SPY SPYG TOTL HYS BLV CORP SH MYY DOG HYG |
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
SPDR Gold Trust SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF SPDR DoubleLine Total Return Tactical ETF PIMCO 0-5 Year High Yield Corporate Bond Index ETF Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index Fund ETF PIMCO Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index Exchange-Traded Fund ProShares Short S&P500 ETF ProShares Short MidCap400 ProShares Short Dow30 iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF |
BACK-TESTED RESULTS
- The basic strategy uses only the SPY ETF as a stand-alone trading program. It is expected every global broker offers an ETF that tracks this broad-based U.S. index so this would be suitable to those who do not have U.S. ETF access. The bear market defensive strategy is USD cash.
- The full strategy uses the full universe of U.S. listed ETFs as shown above.
- All back-test graphics are as of 17 October 2025. Updates annual graphics will be provided during the first week of each new year.
- Painted Line = the "Trend Leader" system return
- White Line = the S&P 500 Index return
BASIC STRATEGY
Bull Market: SPY
Backstop Strategy: None
Bear Market: USD Cash
Bull Market: SPY
Backstop Strategy: None
Bear Market: USD Cash
- Strategy Annual Return (CAGR): 13.3%
- Relative Risk: 47% of the S&P 500 risk
- Sharpe Ratio: 0.92
- Sortino Ratio: 6.12
- Maximum Drawdown: -23.9% (13 Mar 2023)
- Trades: 2.2 per year
Annualized Past Yearly Returns
FULL STRATEGY
Bull Market: Full Universe
Backstop Strategy: Sector Backstop
Bear Market: Bear Market Universe
Bull Market: Full Universe
Backstop Strategy: Sector Backstop
Bear Market: Bear Market Universe
- Strategy Annual Return (CAGR): 30.4%
- Relative Risk: 49% of the S&P 500 risk
- Sharpe Ratio: 1.64
- Sortino Ratio: 11.7
- Maximum Drawdown: -20.3% (30 September 2008)
- Trades: 9.3 per year
Annualized Past Yearly Returns
