Sentry Page Protection
Market/Model Commentary
Currently the active model portfolio as defined by our 5-factor model is:
ECAM 5-Factor Composite Model
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YELLOW |
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ECONOMIC FACTOR SUB-MODEL
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TECHNICAL FACTOR SUB-MODEL
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VALUATION FACTOR SUB-MODEL
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SENTIMENT FACTOR SUB-MODEL
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LIQUIDITY (Stress) FACTOR SUB-MODEL
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"Slow and Steady wins the race"
The Hare and the Tortoise
Aesop (Greek slave & fable author 620 BC - 560 BC)
"Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball"
Carl Swenlin (Technical Analyst)
"Investing is the intersection of economics and psychology"
Seth Klarman (Hedge fund Manager, Baupost Group)
"Everyone's got a plan ..... until they get punched in the face"
Mike Tyson (Former World Heavyweight Boxing Champion)
The Hare and the Tortoise
Aesop (Greek slave & fable author 620 BC - 560 BC)
"Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball"
Carl Swenlin (Technical Analyst)
"Investing is the intersection of economics and psychology"
Seth Klarman (Hedge fund Manager, Baupost Group)
"Everyone's got a plan ..... until they get punched in the face"
Mike Tyson (Former World Heavyweight Boxing Champion)
Latest Updates
DOW JONES GLOBAL INDEX
(09 May 2025)
Global equities were almost unchanged this past week with a percentage return (as measured by the Dow Jones Global Index) of -0.10%. This week price closed above the 40 week moving average and above price resistance @ 623-626.
Technical Analysis Summary (Dow Jones Global Index)
Click to set custom HTML
Dow Jones Global Index Historical Monthly Returns
Global equities closed the month of April with a gain of +0.8%. We are now within May which has historically been a weak month within the seasonal cycle:
- -3.1% cumulative percentage return over the past 25 years.
- 44.0% win percentage.
- greatest gain +9.5% (2009)
- greatest loss -9.9% (2010)
Weekly Global Macro Review
U.S. Equities
Major US indexes finished the week narrowly mixed. Small- and mid-cap indexes led the way, posting gains for the fifth consecutive week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell modestly.
Major US indexes finished the week narrowly mixed. Small- and mid-cap indexes led the way, posting gains for the fifth consecutive week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell modestly.
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S&P 500:
DJIA: NASDAQ 100: S&P 400 Mid-cap: Russell 2000 Small Cap: |
-0.5%
-0.2% -0.2% +0.5% +0.2% |
Equities started the week lower, with the S&P 500 Index snapping a nine-day winning streak in a fairly quiet trading session on Monday. However, stocks recovered some losses on Wednesday following reports that U.S. and Chinese officials plan to meet in Switzerland this weekend for trade discussions, potentially paving the way for broader negotiations and tariff de-escalation. Stocks continued to gain through Thursday, buoyed by the U.S. and UK’s announcement of the first new trade deal since the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs were unveiled on April 2, which helped fuel investors’ hopes of more deals to come.
The highlight of the week’s economic calendar arguably came on Wednesday, as the Federal Reserve concluded its monetary policy meeting and announced it would be holding the fed funds target rate steady in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, as was widely expected. In the Fed’s post-meeting statement, policymakers noted that “economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace.” However, they cautioned that “uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further” and “the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.”
In a news conference following the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that, with regard to changing monetary policy, Fed officials remain in a “wait and see” mode as they continue to assess incoming data to determine the economic impacts of the Trump administration’s significant policy changes, particularly wide-ranging tariffs, which are “likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slowdown in economic growth, and an increase in unemployment.” Powell also acknowledged that policymakers could find themselves in a “challenging scenario” in which the Fed’s dual-mandate goals—maximum employment and price stability—are “in tension.”
The week’s calendar of economic data releases was relatively light compared with the prior week. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) did report its Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for April, which rose to 51.6% from March’s reading of 50.8%, the 10th consecutive month of expanding activity in the sector (readings above 50% indicate expansion). Three of the four subindexes (new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries) improved month over month, and the fourth (business activity) remained in expansion territory at 53.7%. The prices index rose to 65.1%, the highest reading in over two years, which was largely attributed to impacts from tariffs.
Meanwhile, ISM’s Manufacturing PMI, reported in the prior week, indicated a contraction in the sector for the second month in a row in April. According to Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, “Demand and production retreated and destaffing continued, as panelists’ companies responded to an unknown economic environment.”
US Bonds
U.S. Treasuries generated negative returns heading into Friday morning as yields fluctuated but generally increased in the wake of the Fed’s rate announcement and positive trade headlines. (Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.)
Volumes in the investment grade and high yield bond market were light during the week, with investors focused on earnings while awaiting commentary following the Fed’s policy meeting.
The highlight of the week’s economic calendar arguably came on Wednesday, as the Federal Reserve concluded its monetary policy meeting and announced it would be holding the fed funds target rate steady in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, as was widely expected. In the Fed’s post-meeting statement, policymakers noted that “economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace.” However, they cautioned that “uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further” and “the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.”
In a news conference following the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that, with regard to changing monetary policy, Fed officials remain in a “wait and see” mode as they continue to assess incoming data to determine the economic impacts of the Trump administration’s significant policy changes, particularly wide-ranging tariffs, which are “likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slowdown in economic growth, and an increase in unemployment.” Powell also acknowledged that policymakers could find themselves in a “challenging scenario” in which the Fed’s dual-mandate goals—maximum employment and price stability—are “in tension.”
The week’s calendar of economic data releases was relatively light compared with the prior week. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) did report its Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for April, which rose to 51.6% from March’s reading of 50.8%, the 10th consecutive month of expanding activity in the sector (readings above 50% indicate expansion). Three of the four subindexes (new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries) improved month over month, and the fourth (business activity) remained in expansion territory at 53.7%. The prices index rose to 65.1%, the highest reading in over two years, which was largely attributed to impacts from tariffs.
Meanwhile, ISM’s Manufacturing PMI, reported in the prior week, indicated a contraction in the sector for the second month in a row in April. According to Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, “Demand and production retreated and destaffing continued, as panelists’ companies responded to an unknown economic environment.”
US Bonds
U.S. Treasuries generated negative returns heading into Friday morning as yields fluctuated but generally increased in the wake of the Fed’s rate announcement and positive trade headlines. (Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.)
Volumes in the investment grade and high yield bond market were light during the week, with investors focused on earnings while awaiting commentary following the Fed’s policy meeting.
Europe/UK Equities
In local currency terms, the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index ended +0.3% higher, rising for a fourth consecutive week amid hopes for an easing in trade tensions between China and the U.S. Major stock indexes were mixed.
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German DAX:
French CAC: Italian MIB: Spanish IBEX: U.K. FTSE 100: |
+1.8%
-0.3% +2.7% +0.8% -0.5% |
The Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee voted 5–4 to cut its key policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.25%. However, the vote split prompted markets to price in reduced odds of a third rate cut this year, as two of the four dissenting members favored keeping rates unchanged. Moreover, the minutes indicated that most of the policymakers saw the May decision as “finely balanced” prior to the latest global developments. The BoE reiterated that a "gradual and careful" approach to future adjustments remains appropriate.
Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, kept its policy rate at 2.25% while signaling a change in outlook that suggested easier monetary policy ahead. The bank abandoned its previous position on steady rates, indicating that there were more downside than upside risks since the March inflation forecast because of the uncertainty resulting from the new U.S. trade policy.
Meanwhile, the Norwegian Norges Bank left its benchmark rate at 4.5%, maintaining a cautious approach as inflation remains above the 2% target. "If the policy rate is lowered prematurely, prices may continue to rise rapidly," Deputy Governor Pal Longva said. "The committee's current assessment of the outlook implies that the policy rate will most likely be reduced in the course of 2025," he added.
German industrial production jumped 3% sequentially in March, significantly exceeding consensus forecasts. Manufacturers increased output ahead of the imposition of new U.S. tariffs. Factory orders increased 3.6% sequentially, after coming in flat in February.
Activity in the UK housing market slowed in April after the end of a tax break on home purchases for first-time buyers, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said. The monthly house price balance fell to a nine-month low, and the number of sales dropped the most since August 2023.
Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, kept its policy rate at 2.25% while signaling a change in outlook that suggested easier monetary policy ahead. The bank abandoned its previous position on steady rates, indicating that there were more downside than upside risks since the March inflation forecast because of the uncertainty resulting from the new U.S. trade policy.
Meanwhile, the Norwegian Norges Bank left its benchmark rate at 4.5%, maintaining a cautious approach as inflation remains above the 2% target. "If the policy rate is lowered prematurely, prices may continue to rise rapidly," Deputy Governor Pal Longva said. "The committee's current assessment of the outlook implies that the policy rate will most likely be reduced in the course of 2025," he added.
German industrial production jumped 3% sequentially in March, significantly exceeding consensus forecasts. Manufacturers increased output ahead of the imposition of new U.S. tariffs. Factory orders increased 3.6% sequentially, after coming in flat in February.
Activity in the UK housing market slowed in April after the end of a tax break on home purchases for first-time buyers, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said. The monthly house price balance fell to a nine-month low, and the number of sales dropped the most since August 2023.
Japan
Japan’s stock markets gained over the holiday-shortened week, with the Nikkei 225 Index rising +1.8% and the broader TOPIX Index up +1.7%. The yen weakened past JPY 145 against the U.S. dollar, hovering around a one-month low as the USD strengthened notably on the announcement of a U.S.-UK trade deal and confirmation by China that its trade negotiations with the U.S. are due to begin. The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) rose to 1.35% from 1.26% at the end of the previous week, as safe-haven demand for JGBs dissipated on global trade optimism.
There were limited signs of progress in the ongoing bilateral trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan. The U.S. warned that a trade deal with Japan could take significantly more time to complete than the framework agreement with the UK that was announced during the week. Japan is urging the U.S. to review its series of tariff measures, seeking the full removal of reciprocal tariffs (President Donald Trump imposed a 24% tariff on Japanese goods before the 90-day pause was announced) and the additional 25% levies on autos, steel, and aluminum. For the U.S., agriculture is likely to be a focal point, as it seeks to further open Japan to American agricultural products.
The latest economic data raised some concerns about the outlook for Japan’s economy, which is already facing headwinds from tariff risks and their potential to delay the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy normalization process. Real (inflation-adjusted) wages fell for the third consecutive month in March, declining 2.1% year on year (y/y). Nominal wage growth of 2.1% y/y fell short of consensus estimates of 2.3% y/y and the previous month’s 2.7% y/y increase. The BoJ is watching for a cycle of wages rising in tandem with prices that boosts the economy, but the central bank recently warned of extremely high uncertainty on the outlook due to the impact of trade and other policies in each jurisdiction, with risks to economic activity and prices skewed to the downside.
China
Mainland Chinese stock markets advanced in an abbreviated trading week ahead of U.S. trade talks. The onshore benchmark CSI 300 Index rose +2.0%, and the Shanghai Composite Index added +1.9% in local currency terms. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index rose +1.6%. Markets in mainland China were closed on Monday, May 5, for the Labor Day holiday.
Chinese stocks rallied early in the week on news that U.S. and Chinese officials would travel to Switzerland for trade talks over the weekend. An unexpected policy boost by the central bank also added to positive sentiment. On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) reduced its seven-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.4% from 1.5% and cut its reserve requirement ratio by half a percentage point, a move that will release roughly RMB 1 trillion in long-term liquidity in the economy, the central bank governor said. The PBOC announced other loosening measures, including rate cuts on a range of relending tools and loans for policy banks.
The measures reflected China’s increased efforts to protect the economy after the Trump administration said it would hike tariffs on most Chinese goods to 145%. On Friday, China reported that exports to other countries rose a higher-than-expected 8.1% in April but were down from March’s 12% gain. U.S.-bound shipments decreased 21% from a year ago after Washington imposed the tariff hike in early April. But exports to India, Southeast Asian countries, and the European Union soared as Chinese companies offset the U.S. sales drop with sales to other markets.
Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are leading the trade talks, which are set to start on Saturday in Geneva and last for two days.
Weekly Performance
WEEKLY SUMMARY
U.S. Indices
Dow -0.2% to 41,249. S&P 500 -0.5% to 5,660. Nasdaq -0.3% to 17,929. Russell 2000 +0.1% to 2,023. CBOE Volatility Index -3.4% to 21.9.
S&P 500 Sectors
Consumer Staples -1.1%. Utilities +0.5%. Financials +0.1%. Telecom -2.4%. Healthcare -4.3%. Industrials +1.1%. Information Technology +0.3%. Materials -0.4%. Energy +0.4%. Consumer Discretionary +0.8%. Real Estate -0.8%.
World Indices
London -0.5% to 8,555. France -0.3% to 7,744. Germany +1.8% to 23,499. Japan +1.8% to 37,503. China +1.9% to 3,342. Hong Kong +1.6% to 22,868. India -1.3% to 79,454.
Commodities and Bonds
Crude Oil WTI +4.7% to $61.02/bbl. Gold +3.1% to $3,344./oz. Natural Gas +4.6% to 3.795. Ten-Year Bond Yield -0.2 bps to 4.381.
Forex and Cryptos
EUR/USD -0.42%. USD/JPY +0.28%. GBP/USD +0.26%. Bitcoin +7.4%. Litecoin +18.8%. Ethereum +27.8%. XRP +7.9%.
U.S. Indices
Dow -0.2% to 41,249. S&P 500 -0.5% to 5,660. Nasdaq -0.3% to 17,929. Russell 2000 +0.1% to 2,023. CBOE Volatility Index -3.4% to 21.9.
S&P 500 Sectors
Consumer Staples -1.1%. Utilities +0.5%. Financials +0.1%. Telecom -2.4%. Healthcare -4.3%. Industrials +1.1%. Information Technology +0.3%. Materials -0.4%. Energy +0.4%. Consumer Discretionary +0.8%. Real Estate -0.8%.
World Indices
London -0.5% to 8,555. France -0.3% to 7,744. Germany +1.8% to 23,499. Japan +1.8% to 37,503. China +1.9% to 3,342. Hong Kong +1.6% to 22,868. India -1.3% to 79,454.
Commodities and Bonds
Crude Oil WTI +4.7% to $61.02/bbl. Gold +3.1% to $3,344./oz. Natural Gas +4.6% to 3.795. Ten-Year Bond Yield -0.2 bps to 4.381.
Forex and Cryptos
EUR/USD -0.42%. USD/JPY +0.28%. GBP/USD +0.26%. Bitcoin +7.4%. Litecoin +18.8%. Ethereum +27.8%. XRP +7.9%.
WEEKLY ASSET CLASS MONITOR
(week ending 09 May 2025)
(week ending 09 May 2025)
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Asset Class
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Region
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ETF Ticker
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Weekly
Return |
2025 Return
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Equities
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World
U.S. Europe Asia Pacific ex-Japan Emerging Market |
VT
VTI VGK AAXJ VWO |
-0.23%
-0.30% -0.12% -0.26% -0.41% |
+1.45%
-3.75% +17.21% +5.32% +5.12% |
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Bonds
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U.S. Bonds
International Bonds Global Bonds |
BND
BNDX BNDW |
-0.18%
-0.10% -0.13% |
+2.21%
+1.10% +1.71% |
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Real Estate Equities
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Global Real Estate Equities
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REET
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-0.29%
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+2.70%
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Precious Metals Equities
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Global Gold Miners
Global Junior Gold Miners |
RING
GDXJ |
+7.63%
+9.57% |
+50.59%
+50.48% |
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET MONITOR
The past 4 years have been very challenging for global equities. They had a wicked roller-coaster ride in 2020 on the back of the Covid pandemic where they peaked on 12 Feb 2020 and fell dramatically (-34%) into their 23 Mar lows. They then rebounded and regained their losses by year-end.
For most of 2021 they remained largely in a "holding pattern" digesting their gains but declined considerably throughout 2022 before bottoming in October. Strong returns have been seen since the Oct/22 bottom with global equities exceeding past all-time highs before the recent correction (previous highs for all regions shown as red dotted line).
For most of 2021 they remained largely in a "holding pattern" digesting their gains but declined considerably throughout 2022 before bottoming in October. Strong returns have been seen since the Oct/22 bottom with global equities exceeding past all-time highs before the recent correction (previous highs for all regions shown as red dotted line).
Asset Class Return Monitor
(for week ending 09 May 2025)
(for week ending 09 May 2025)
Equities Legend:
Bonds Legend:
Currencies Legend:
Commodities Legend:
- Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT): (Cyan)
- Vanguard Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (VTI): (Red)
- Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK): (Lime Green)
- Ishares MSCI Asia ex-Japan ETF (AAXJ): (Dark Blue)
- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO): (Pink)
Bonds Legend:
- Vanguard Total U.S. Bond Market ETF (BND): (Black)
- Vanguard Total International ex-U.S. Bond ETF (BNDX): (Green)
Currencies Legend:
- U.S. Dollar Index (Cash Settlement EOD) ($USD): (Orange)
- Euro (Philadelphia Index) ($XEU): (Maroon)
Commodities Legend:
- PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC): (Purple)
- SPDR Gold ETF (GLD): (Sky Blue)
Past Week Asset Class returns
- Over the past week global equities (as measured by the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (shown in CYAN) lost -0.23%.
- European markets were the top performing equity region this past week with US markets lagging.
- U.S. bonds (Black) and International bonds (Green) were lower on the week.
- Commodities were higher on the week with the U.S. Dollar index up +0.31%.
Year-to-Date (2025) Asset Class returns
- In 2025 global equities (as measured by the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF shown in CYAN) have gained +1.45%.
- European market equities are the top performing equity region year-to-date with US markets lagging.
- Bonds have had positive returns in 2025 with U.S. bonds (Black) out-performing International Bonds (Green).
- The US Dollar index has lost -7.51% year-to-date.
The stock market is driven by a combination of corporate profits, trends, economic data, fund flows, expectations, greed, fear, opinions, analysis, geopolitical events and human nature. These variables are often in conflict with one another (especially in the short run) and form a sine-wave cycle of investor psychology which begins with optimism, peaks with euphoria, bottoms with despair and returns to optimism.
It must be reemphasized a complete market cycles is composed of 2 distinct cycles/phases: a "bull 1/2 cycle" and a "bear 1/2 cycle".
The Math of Losses
- a 20% loss requires a 25% gain to return to breakeven
- a 30% loss requires a 43% gain to return to breakeven
- a 40% loss requires a 67% gain to return to breakeven
- a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to return to breakeven
- a 60% loss requires a 150% gain to return to breakeven
This is why it is so important to not let losses continue in the face of a bear market decline and why we advocate phased movements into cash as our 5-factor model reverts to Red. The below graphic represents how we move within equity markets through a complete sine-wave market cycle:
World Regional Equity Monitor
We use the following U.S. exchange traded funds to monitor equity performance for the various world regions:
- World Equities: Vanguard Total World ETF (Cyan)
- U.S. Equity: Vanguard Total Market ETF (Red)
- European Equity: Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF: (Lime Green)
- Japan Equity: iShares Japan ETF (Black)
- Asia ex-Japan Equity: iShares MSCI All-Country Asia ex-Japan ETF (Blue)
- Emerging Market Equity: Vanguard FTSE Emerging Market ETF (Pink)
1 Year Rolling Regional Equity Performance
- Over the past 12 month rolling period regional equity performance has been positive for monitored regions.
- The strongest equity regions over the past 12 month have been European market equities with US/Japanese/Asia Pacific ex-Japan/Emerging markets lagging.
- Overall world equity performance (as measured by the Vanguard Total World ETF) have returned +12.77% (including dividends) over the past 12 month rolling period.
3 Month Rolling Regional Equity Performance
- Over the past 3 month rolling period the strongest performing world equity region has been European markets with US markets the weakest.
- Mixed equity returns have been evident over the past quarter (3 months) in monitored regions.
1 Month Rolling Regional Equity Performance
- Over the past 1 month rolling period the strongest performing world equity region has been Japanese markets with US markets the weakest.
- Positive equity returns have been achieved over the past month for monitored regions.
Past Week Regional Equity Performance
- Over the past week the major global equity regions were higher with Asia Pacific ex-Japan markets outperforming other regions.
Latest Global Equity "Big Picture"
World equity market returns are monitored via the following index and ETF equity charts:
- Dow Jones Global Market Index (cap-weighted)
- Value Line Geometric U.S. Index (equal-weighted)
- Global Dow Index (equal-weighted)
- MSCI ACWI ETF (cap-weighted)
Dow Jones Global Market Index
(market cap weighted index)
For the week the Dow Jones Global Index had a loss of -0.07%. Price closed below the 52 week moving average (green line) and below previous support @ 623-628.
Value Line Geometric Index and Global Dow Index
(equal weighted indexes)
The Value Line Geometric Index ($XVG) is the median price performance of 1700 U.S. companies equal weighted (as opposed to most indexes which are market cap weighted) into an index. The Global Dow index ($GDOW) is a measure of the top 150 international companies equal weighted within the index.
These indexes are important as they equal-weight the price performance of all the companies held within the respective index. This removes the distortions associated with a small group of highly valued companies (which may be performing well) masking the performance of struggling companies and represents a good overview of overall internal equity breadth/strength.
These indexes are important as they equal-weight the price performance of all the companies held within the respective index. This removes the distortions associated with a small group of highly valued companies (which may be performing well) masking the performance of struggling companies and represents a good overview of overall internal equity breadth/strength.
Value Line Geometric Index ($XVG) Weekly
Global Dow Index ($GDOW) Weekly
iShares MSCI ACWI ETF
(market cap weighted ETF)
The iShares MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) ETF is used as a benchmark to compare the performance of the various broad-based equity funds available in the Emirates Group Provident Scheme (EGPS) A/B/C accounts. It serves as a benchmark to determine how equity markets are performing on a worldwide basis. This assists in determining 2 parameters; whether to be invested in equities and also which funds within the EGPS offer the best performance relative to the benchmark.
The ETF is composed of the following regional components/weightings:
The ETF is composed of the following regional components/weightings:
ACWI Monthly Chart
Global equity markets bottomed in Oct 2022 and reached new all-time highs in Jan 2025.
For the month of May ACWI has gained +1.83%. It closed the month of April above the 12 month simple moving average (blue moving average on the chart above) keeping the long term trend BULLISH until month end.
For the month of May ACWI has gained +1.83%. It closed the month of April above the 12 month simple moving average (blue moving average on the chart above) keeping the long term trend BULLISH until month end.
ACWI Weekly Chart
This past week ACWI lost -0.23%. Price closed above the 40 week simple moving average (shown in GREEN) and above support @ 115.88.
World Equity Market Regional Relative Rotation Graphs
Below is a graph of 24 major regional equity market ETF's + ACWI (our world equity benchmark) shown on a Relative Rotation chart measured weekly with a 10 week look-back period (which forms the "tail" of the ETF). This graph allows us to observe over time how various regional ETF's are moving relative to both each other and also relative to cash.
- Leading (Green): (Momentum Positive + Price Relative Strength Positive)
- Weakening (Yellow): (Momentum Negative + Price Relative Strength Positive)
- Lagging (Red): (Momentum Negative + Price Relative Strength Negative)
- Improving (Blue): (Momentum Positive + Price Relative Strength Negative)
Given the cyclical nature of momentum and price within equity markets, in general the RRG charts will cycle in a clockwise manner (though not necessarily will each pass through all 4 quadrants as it is possible to rotate through an adjacent quadrant only).
Weekly Regional (Country) Relative Rotation Graphs (long term)
The RRG trend analysis status is currently BEARISH for world equities:
- ACWI Weekly Quadrant: LAGGING Quadrant
- 24 Country Net Score: POSITIVE
- ACWI price Relative Strength (horizontal axis): NEGATIVE
- ACWI price Momentum (vertical axis): NEGATIVE
Coincident Equity Market Indicators
Crude Oil
Crude oil was higher over the past week and remains below is recent range. The 3-month correlation between crude oil and global equities is positive.
Gold
Gold was higher over the past week and closed above its recent trading range. The 3-month correlation between gold and global equities is negative.
Commodities
Commodities were higher over the past week and closed back within their previous range. The 3-month correlation between commodities and global equities is positive.
U.S. 30 Year Treasury Bond
U.S. 30 year bond prices were lower over the past week. The 3-month correlation between US government bonds and global equities is neutral.
Current 5-Factor Model Indications
The combined 5-Factor quantitative model is currently YELLOW (neutral). This indicates an even level of risk at present. The 5-Factor model currently has the following sub-model readings:
Economic Model
The Economic model is currently YELLOW. The 1-year rate-of-change in global economic data had moved towards contraction but has stabilized over the past several months. The model is composed of numerous inputs including data from the following sources:
Forward Forecast Data:
Forward Forecast Data:
- OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI)
- J.P. Morgan Global Purchasing Managers (PMI) Index
- World Bank Monthly Global Economic Report
OECD Composite Leading Indicators
(data as of 07 May 2025)
The OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is designed to predict business cycle changes 6-9 months in advance. It provides early signals of turning points in business cycles showing fluctuation of the economic activity around its long term potential level.
Click to set custom HTML
Below is our latest heat-map of the Composite Leading Indicators for various monitored regions.
Ideally we want to see the majority of regions indicating a CLI > 100 as well as steady/improving trends month-over-month and year-over-year.
- Red/Green numbers indicates above/below average future projected economic growth.
- Red/Green boxes indicates CLI change month/month and year/year.
Ideally we want to see the majority of regions indicating a CLI > 100 as well as steady/improving trends month-over-month and year-over-year.
Click to set custom HTML
J.P. Morgan Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
(07 May 2025)
(07 May 2025)
The J.P. Morgan monthly PMI Report is based on the results of manufacturing and service sector surveys covering over 18,000 purchasing executives in over 40 countries. Together these countries account for an estimated 89% of global gross domestic product (GDP).
Questions are asked about real events and are not opinion based. Data are presented in the form of diffusion indices, where an index reading above 50.0 indicates an increase in the variable since the previous month and below 50.0 a decrease. As such, using the PMI data gives us a real-time look at global growth.
Questions are asked about real events and are not opinion based. Data are presented in the form of diffusion indices, where an index reading above 50.0 indicates an increase in the variable since the previous month and below 50.0 a decrease. As such, using the PMI data gives us a real-time look at global growth.
- readings > 50 indicate economic expansion
- readings < 50 indicate economic contraction.
Latest Key Findings:
- Global Composite Output Index decreased to 50.8 (52.1 the previous month) and remains in fractional expansion. It remains below its long term average Global PMI measure of 53.2.
- Global Manufacturing decreased to 50.2 (50.3 the previous month) and remains in fractional expansion.
- Global Services decreased to 50.8 (52.7 the previous month) and remains in fractional expansion.
Global Composite PMI
Below is our PMI monitor for selected regions/countries.
- numerical values > 50 (GREEN) indicate economic expansion in progress.
- numerical values < 50 (RED) indicating economic contraction in progress.
- trend box GREEN indicates improvement over the past month with RED indicating a decline over the previous month.
The latest data points to slow/steady global growth as we enter 2025. The Global Composite Index remains in modest expansion (reading above 50).
World Bank Global Monthly Outlook
(March 2025)
(March 2025)
U.S. Economic Growth & Inflation
Year-over-Year GDP growth
The U.S. economy grew 2.0% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, down from 2.5% in the previous quarter and marking the slowest pace since Q4 2022, according to an advance estimate. The slowdown was largely driven by a 13.4% surge in imports, as businesses and consumers rushed to stockpile goods ahead of expected tariff hikes under the Trump administration.
Quarter-over-Quarter GDP growth
The U.S. economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first decline since the first quarter of 2022. This was a sharp reversal from 2.4% growth in the previous quarter and came in below market expectations of 0.3% growth, according to an advance estimate. A 41.3% surge in imports contributed to the slowdown, as businesses and consumers rushed to stockpile goods in anticipation of higher costs following a series of tariff announcements by the Trump administration. Consumer spending growth also cooled to 1.8%, the slowest pace since Q2 2023, while federal government expenditures fell 5.1%, the steepest drop since Q1 2022. In contrast, fixed investment surged 7.8%, the most since Q2 2023.
Annualized Inflation
The annual inflation rate in the US eased for a second consecutive month to 2.4% in March 2025, the lowest since September, down from 2.8% in February, and below forecasts of 2.6%. Prices for gasoline (-9.8% vs -3.1%) and fuel oil (-7.6% vs -5.1%) fell more while natural gas prices soared (9.4% vs 6%). Inflation also slowed for shelter (4% vs 4.2%), used cars and trucks (0.6% vs 0.8%), and transportation (3.1% vs 6%) while prices were unchanged for new vehicles (vs -0.3%). On the other hand, inflation accelerated for food (3% vs 2.6%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI decreased 0.1%, the first fall since May 2020, compared to expectations of a 0.1% gain. The index for energy fell 2.4%, as a 6.3% decline in gasoline more than offset increases in electricity (0.9%) and natural gas (3.6%). Meanwhile, annual core inflation eased to 2.8%, the lowest since March 2021, and below forecasts of 3%. On a monthly basis, the core CPI edged up 0.1%, below expectations of 0.3%.
Eurozone Economic Growth & Inflation
Year-over-Year GDP growth
The Eurozone economy grew by 1.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, matching the previous quarter’s pace and surpassing market expectations for a 1% expansion, a flash estimate showed. Among the Eurozone's largest economies, Germany remained in recession, with GDP contracting by 0.2% year-on-year in Q1. Meanwhile, France and Italy posted modest growth of 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively, while Spain outpaced its peers with a strong 2.8% expansion.
Quarter-over-Quarter GDP growth
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) In the Euro Area expanded 0.40 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. GDP Growth Rate in Euro Area averaged 0.37 percent from 1995 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 11.60 percent in the third quarter of 2020 and a record low of -11.10 percent in the second quarter of 2020.
Annualized Inflation
Annual inflation in the Euro Area eased to 2.2% in March 2025, the lowest rate since November 2024 and slightly below market expectations of 2.3%, a preliminary estimate showed. Services inflation slowed to a 33-month low (3.4% vs. 3.7% in February), while energy costs declined (-0.7% vs. 0.2%). However, inflation remained steady for both non-energy industrial goods (0.6%) and processed food, alcohol & tobacco (2.6%), and unprocessed food prices surged (4.1% vs. 3.0%). Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell to 2.4%, slightly below market forecasts of 2.5% and marking its lowest level since January 2022. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.6% in March, following a 0.4% advance in February.
Japan Economic Growth & Inflation
Year-over-Year GDP growth
The Japanese economy expanded by 2.2% on an annualized basis in Q4 2024, falling short of the preliminary estimate of 2.8% but accelerating from an upwardly revised 1.4% growth in Q3. This marked the third consecutive yearly expansion, driven by a solid rebound in capital expenditure and the fourth consecutive quarter of rising government spending. Additionally, net trade made a strong contribution for the first time in five quarters, as exports continued to grow despite concerns over US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats, while imports declined after two consecutive quarters of growth. Meanwhile, private consumption rose for the third straight quarter, though its pace slowed significantly due to elevated inflation and higher borrowing costs.
Quarter-over-Quarter GDP growth
Japan's GDP grew by 0.6% qoq in Q4 2024, below the flash estimate of 0.7% but higher than an upwardly revised 0.4% expansion in Q3, marking the third consecutive quarter of growth. Private consumption saw a slight downward revision, remaining flat instead of a 0.1% growth reported in the flash estimate, following a 0.7% increase in Q3. Meanwhile, business investment gained 0.6%, compared to a preliminary reading of 0.5% and after a 0.1% drop in Q3, surpassing forecasts of a 0.3% rise. Simultaneously, government spending expanded for the fourth successive quarter, rising by 0.4%, up from an initial estimate of 0.3% and a 0.1% gain in Q3. Net trade contributed 0.7 percentage points to overall growth, as exports rose for the third straight quarter despite concerns over US tariff threats (1.0% vs 1.5% in Q3), while imports fell for the first time since Q1 2024 (-2.1% vs. 2.0% in Q3). On an annualized basis, the economy advanced 2.2%, quickening from an upwardly revised 1.4% in Q3.
Annualized Inflation
Japan's annual inflation rate edged to 3.6% in March 2025 from 3.7% in the prior month, marking the lowest print since last November. Food prices rose the least in three months (7.4% vs 7.6% in February) even as rice costs jumped by 92.1% yoy due to poor harvests, rising demand from record tourist numbers, and emergency government stockpile releases. In addition, prices of electricity (8.7% vs 9.0% ) and gas (2.4% vs 3.4%) eased further amid energy subsidies. Inflation also eased slightly for recreation (2.0% vs 2.1%), while education cost fell further (-1.2% vs -1.1%). In contrast, inflation was stable for housing (at 0.8%) and miscellaneous items (at 1.1%) but accelerated for clothing (3.0% vs 2.8%), healthcare (2.0% vs 1.7%), transport (2.7% vs 2.4%), furniture and household items (4.5% vs 4.0%), and communications (1.0% vs 0.1%). However, the core inflation rate rose to 3.2% from 3.0%, in line with market estimates. Monthly, the CPI increased 0.3%, after a 0.1% drop in February.
China Economic Growth & Inflation
Year-over-Year GDP growth
China’s economy grew 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 of 2025, maintaining the same pace as in Q4 and exceeding market expectations of 5.1%. It remained the strongest annual growth rate in 1-1/2 years amid Beijing's ongoing stimulus. The latest GDP readings were also buoyed by robust March activity: industrial output rose at its fastest pace since June 2021, retail sales posted the biggest gain in over a year, and the surveyed jobless rate eased from a two-year high. Fixed asset investment also slightly surpassed expectations in the first quarter. On the trade front, exports recorded their strongest growth since October as firms accelerated shipments ahead of looming tariffs, while a drop in imports narrowed. The statistics bureau said the Chinese economy was “off to a good and steady start” and highlighted the growing role of innovation. However, intensifying trade tensions with the U.S. have quickly darkened the outlook, increasing pressure on Beijing to roll out additional support measures.
Quarter-over-Quarter GDP growth
The Chinese GDP grew by a seasonally adjusted 1.2% in Q1 of 2025, slowing from a 1.6% rise in Q4 and falling short of the market consensus of 1.4%. It marked the softest quarterly expansion since Q2 of 2024 while representing the 11th consecutive quarter of advance. Since February, U.S. President Donald Trump has sharply raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, prompting Beijing to retaliate with duties on American imports. China's policymakers have emphasized that the nation has ample tools to support its economic output, with Premier Li Qiang recently pledging further stimulus. Boosting consumption remains a top priority this year as the government seeks to offset the impact of surging U.S. duties. The Politburo is expected to meet later in April to outline upcoming policy plans. In March, China announced increased fiscal spending, including a higher budget deficit, and officials have signaled more fiscal and monetary support ahead, following a wave of easing measures late last year.
Annualized Inflation
China's consumer prices fell by 0.1% year-on-year in March 2025, missing market expectations of a 0.1% increase and marking the second consecutive month of drop, as the ongoing trade dispute with the U.S. threatens to exert further downward pressure on prices. Still, the latest drop was significantly milder than February’s 0.7% fall, supported by a smaller decline in food prices as pork prices accelerated and fresh fruit costs rebounded. Meanwhile, non-food prices rose by 0.2%, reversing a slight dip of 0.1% in February, driven by increases in housing (0.1% vs 0.1%), healthcare (0.1% vs 0.2%), and education (0.8% vs -0.5%), despite a continued decline in transport costs (-2.6% vs -2.5%). Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose 0.5% in March, rebounding from a 0.1% decrease in February. On a monthly basis, the CPI declined by 0.4%, a steeper fall than a 0.2% drop in February, marking the second straight month of contraction.
Valuation Model
The Valuation model is currently YELLOW. Equity valuations are currently at the upper region of "fair value" relative to underlying current global economic fundamentals.
Technical Model
The Technical model is currently YELLOW. Global equity markets have been in a trending advance since Oct 2023 following their Jul-Oct/23 correction.
Sentiment Model
The Sentiment model is currently GREEN. Overall sentiment has turned neutral (sentiment acts as an inverse shorter-term trading indicator).
Liquidity/Economic Stress Model
The Liquidity/Economic Stress model is currently RED.
World Bond Asset Class Return Monitor
We use the following U.S. exchange traded funds to monitor bond performance for the various bond asset classes:
Total Market Bond Basket:
- U.S. Total Bond Market (BND): (Red)
- International (ex-U.S.) Total Bond Market (BNDX): (Blue)
- U.S. Gov't Treasury Bonds (GOVT): (Orange)
- Foreign Developed Market Gov't Treasury Bonds (BWX): (Pink)
- U.S. Corporate Bonds (LQD): (Maroon)
- International Corporate Bonds (PICB): (Black)
- U.S. High Yield Bonds (JNK): (Purple)
- International High Yield Bonds (IHY): (Green)
- U.S. Gov't Inflation Protected Bonds (TIP): (Lime Green)
- International Gov't Inflation-Protected Bonds (WIP): (Cyan)
1 Year Rolling Bond Performance
- Over the past 12 months rolling period the top performing bond asset class has been Int'l High Yield Bonds with Int'l Gov't Inflation Protected Treasury Bonds the worst performing.
- The U.S. Total Bond Market (RED) and the International (ex-U.S.) Total Bond Market (BLUE) have delivered positive returns over the past year.
3 Month Rolling Bond Performance
- Over the past 3 month rolling period the top performing bond asset class has been Int'l Corporate Bonds with US High Yield Bonds lagging.
- U.S. Total Bond Market (RED) and International (ex-U.S.) Total Bond Market (BLUE) have delivered positive returns over the past quarter (3 months).
1 Month Rolling Bond Performance
- Over the past 1 month rolling period the top performing bond asset class has been Int'l Corporate Bonds with US Treasury Bonds lagging.
- The U.S. Total Bond Market (RED) and the International (ex-U.S.) Total Bond Market (BLUE) have delivered positive returns over the past month.
Past Week Bond Asset Class Performance
- Over the past week US Gov't Inflation Protected Bonds were the top performing bond class.
- The U.S. Total Bond Market (RED) and the International (ex-U.S.) Total Bond Market (BLUE) posted lower returns over the past week.
Commentary:
It has been shown in repeated studies over many years a balanced portfolio consisting of both equities and bonds (with percentage holdings in each adjusted according to personal risk tolerances) remains the best methodology in managing a long term retirement portfolio (due to the independent/low correlated function each takes when navigating though various market cycles and economic conditions).
It is best to think of bonds and equities as 2 independent brains each looking at the market from a different perspective:
As such, historically both serve a useful purpose in a balanced portfolio.
It is best to think of bonds and equities as 2 independent brains each looking at the market from a different perspective:
- Equities: Corporate profits focused.
- Bonds: Economic growth and Inflation focused.
As such, historically both serve a useful purpose in a balanced portfolio.
ETF Bond Proxy
Global aggregate bonds posted a loss of -0.13% over the past week. They have remained rangebound since Jul/2024 and closed the week above the 52 week moving average.
It is important to note since late 2021 global bonds have acted as a poor portfolio diversifier as they have largely been correlated with global equities. We are monitoring closely for the first indication of a decoupling.
It is important to note since late 2021 global bonds have acted as a poor portfolio diversifier as they have largely been correlated with global equities. We are monitoring closely for the first indication of a decoupling.
U.S. 10 year Treasury Yield
The most recent global bear market in bonds began in mid-2020 when the US Federal Reserve pushed interest rates to 0% to combat deflation. Below is charts for the various US Treasury yields from their peak (bond prices move inverse to yields so falling treasury yields are bullish for bond prices).
U.S. treasury yields rose in a parabolic manner into Oct, 2023 before their recent decline. This past week yields closed below resistance @ 4.67% and above the 52 week moving average.
German 10 year Bund Yield
German 10 year treasury yields bottomed in early 2020 during the depths of the European Covid shutdowns. They rebounded in a parabolic manner into Oct, 2023 before their recent decline. This past week yields closed above the 52 week moving average and below resistance @ 2.89%.
Japanese 10 year Treasury Yield
Japan had been fighting deflation for decades but recent unprecedented monetary policy by the BOJ appears to be having effect upon inflation (and rising yields).
After bottoming at near -0.28% in mid-2016, yields have risen and were able to finally break above 0.15% in early 2022. They are currently employing yield curve control (YCC) to keep rates pegged below 1.0% (increased from 0.5% in Jul/2023). This past week yields closed above support @ 1.075% and above the 52 week moving average.
After bottoming at near -0.28% in mid-2016, yields have risen and were able to finally break above 0.15% in early 2022. They are currently employing yield curve control (YCC) to keep rates pegged below 1.0% (increased from 0.5% in Jul/2023). This past week yields closed above support @ 1.075% and above the 52 week moving average.
Currencies
Below is the 12/3/1 month and weekly rolling returns for the 6 currencies that make up the U.S. Dollar index. The U.S. Dollar index is composed of a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value relative to the 6 currencies in the following list:
In addition, we also include the following for comparison purposes:
- Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight.
- Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight.
- U.K. Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight.
- Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight.
- Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight.
- Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight.
In addition, we also include the following for comparison purposes:
- The Australian Dollar (not a part of the USD Index) as it is a popular commodity currency.
- Gold (priced in USD) as it typically acts more like a currency void of fiat printing.
1 Year Rolling Currency Performance
- Over the past 12 months rolling period the top performing major currency has been Gold with the US Dollar Index the worst performing.
3 Month Rolling Currency Performance
- Over the past 3 month rolling period the top performing currency has been Gold with the US Dollar Index lagging.
1 Month Rolling Currency Performance
- Over the past 1 month rolling period the top performing currency has been Gold with the US Dollar Index lagging.
Past Week Currency Performance
- Over the past week the top performing major currency was Gold with the Canadian Dollar lagging.
U.S. Dollar: (Bearish Bias)
Commentary:
The USD was up +0.31% over the past week. It had been rangebound and confined to an 8-point consolidation range since late 2022 before its recent breakout.
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon respective time period closing price):
Weekly: 98.86 / 103.50
Monthly: 98.66 / 100.52
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon respective time period closing price):
Weekly: 98.86 / 103.50
Monthly: 98.66 / 100.52
US Dollar Index Daily charts
The 2 year daily chart (above) shows the trading range the USD has been confined to since late 2022.
Over the past week the USD closed below its short term trend 50 and 200 day moving averages.
(Short Term Bearish)
(Short Term Bearish)
US Dollar Index Weekly charts
The weekly chart shows the recent trading range since late 2023. Price closed the week below the intermediate term trend 20 and 65 week moving averages.
(Intermediate Term Bearish)
(Intermediate Term Bearish)
A longer term 20 year look-back at the USD shows the 79.05-104.32 price (yellow) area has been a very significant bull/bear battle zone since 1987.
US Dollar Index Monthly chart
For the month of May the U.S. Dollar index has gained +0.88%. Price remains confined to the rising price channel from the 2011 lows and has broken out of a 16 month consolidation zone between 101.03-106.49.
Price closed April below the long term trend 10 month moving average keeping the long term bias to Bearish until months end.
(Long Term Bearish)
Price closed April below the long term trend 10 month moving average keeping the long term bias to Bearish until months end.
(Long Term Bearish)
Euro (Bullish Bias)
The Euro was down -0.45% over the past week. It has remained largely range bound between 105-112 over the past year before its most recent breakdown.
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon respective time period closing price):
Weekly: 112.32 / 114.62
Monthly: 111.32 / 114.47
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon respective time period closing price):
Weekly: 112.32 / 114.62
Monthly: 111.32 / 114.47
Euro Daily Charts
The Euro topped out in early 2018 @ 125.10 and had been on a steady decline until March 2020. It rose dramatically into the end of 2020 had remained range bound in 2021 until its recent breakdown.
On the 2nd daily chart price it can be seen how important the yellow band daily resistance zone @ 114.61-116.04 is going back to 2015. Other areas of daily support/resistance are seen at 108.24-108.66 and 103.90-105.69.
The Euro closed the week above the short term trend 50 and 200 day moving averages.
(Short Term Bullish)
On the 2nd daily chart price it can be seen how important the yellow band daily resistance zone @ 114.61-116.04 is going back to 2015. Other areas of daily support/resistance are seen at 108.24-108.66 and 103.90-105.69.
The Euro closed the week above the short term trend 50 and 200 day moving averages.
(Short Term Bullish)
Euro Weekly Chart
The Euro peaked in 2008 and achieved a bottom in 2022. It has been on a steady decline but recently broke above important resistance @ 104.51-104.96 (which now should act as support).
This past week the Euro closed the week above the intermediate trend 20 week + 65 week moving averages.
(Intermediate Term Bullish)
This past week the Euro closed the week above the intermediate trend 20 week + 65 week moving averages.
(Intermediate Term Bullish)
Euro Monthly
For the month of May the Euro has lost -0.69%. On a monthly closing basis it closed the month of April above the long term trend 10 month moving average keeping the long term outlook bearish until months end.
(Long Term Bullish)
(Long Term Bullish)
UK Pound (Bullish Bias)
U.K. Pound Daily Charts
U.K. Pound Weekly Charts
U.K. Pound Monthly Charts
The British Pound was up +0.28% over the past week. It continues to recover from lows last seen 37 years ago. Historically since 1987 the Pound has traded within a range of 1.40 to 2.00 with brief excursions above/below this range. The previous all-time low over the past 200 years was 1.0520 (daily low @ 1.0438) seen in the 1st quarter of 1985 which was revisited in September 2022 (close 1.0696 27 Sep 2022).
This past week the Pound closed the week above its short term trend daily 50 +200 day moving averages and above the intermediate term trend 20 + 65 week moving averages. For the month of May it has lost -0.18% and closed the month of April above its long term 10 month moving average (which technically switches the long term bullish until months end).
(Short Term Bullish)
(Intermediate Term Bullish)
(Long Term Bullish)
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon respective time period closing price):
Weekly: 132.94 / 136.76
Monthly: 121.33 / 133.09
This past week the Pound closed the week above its short term trend daily 50 +200 day moving averages and above the intermediate term trend 20 + 65 week moving averages. For the month of May it has lost -0.18% and closed the month of April above its long term 10 month moving average (which technically switches the long term bullish until months end).
(Short Term Bullish)
(Intermediate Term Bullish)
(Long Term Bullish)
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon respective time period closing price):
Weekly: 132.94 / 136.76
Monthly: 121.33 / 133.09
Australian Dollar (Bearish Bias)
Australian Dollar Daily Chart
Australian Dollar Weekly Charts
Australian Dollar Monthly Chart
The Australian Dollar lost -0.37% over the past week. It topped in Apr/2021 and has been on a steady downtrend to present.
For the month of April the Aussie dollar has gained +0.49%. It closed the week between the short term trend 50 + 200 day moving averages and between the intermediate term trend 20 + 65 week moving averages. It closed the month of April below the long term trend 10 month moving average keeping the long term outlook bearish until months end.
(Short Term Neutral)
(Intermediate Term Neutral)
(Long Term Bearish)
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon respective time period closing price):
Weekly: 62.86 / 67.35
Monthly: 61.48 / 63.58
For the month of April the Aussie dollar has gained +0.49%. It closed the week between the short term trend 50 + 200 day moving averages and between the intermediate term trend 20 + 65 week moving averages. It closed the month of April below the long term trend 10 month moving average keeping the long term outlook bearish until months end.
(Short Term Neutral)
(Intermediate Term Neutral)
(Long Term Bearish)
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon respective time period closing price):
Weekly: 62.86 / 67.35
Monthly: 61.48 / 63.58
Canadian Dollar (Bearish Bias)
Canadian Dollar Daily Chart
Canadian Dollar Weekly Chart
Canadian Dollar Monthly Chart
The Canadian dollar lost -1.12% over the past week. It remains one of the weakest major global currencies at present and is near 9 year lows.
The Loonie closed the week above the short term trend 50 + 200 day moving averages and between the intermediate term trend 20 + 65 week moving averages. For the month of May the Loonie has lost -1.34%. It closed the month of April above the long term trend 10 month moving average switching the long term bullish until months end.
(Short Term Bullish)
(Intermediate Term Neutral)
(Long Term Bullish)
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon respective time period closing price)
Weekly: 69.61 / 71.94
Monthly: 72.07 / 75.83
The Loonie closed the week above the short term trend 50 + 200 day moving averages and between the intermediate term trend 20 + 65 week moving averages. For the month of May the Loonie has lost -1.34%. It closed the month of April above the long term trend 10 month moving average switching the long term bullish until months end.
(Short Term Bullish)
(Intermediate Term Neutral)
(Long Term Bullish)
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon respective time period closing price)
Weekly: 69.61 / 71.94
Monthly: 72.07 / 75.83
Key Weekly Returns (week ending 09 May 2025):
|
Countries/Regions
World Equities ACWI (iShares MSCI ACWI Index Fund) North American Equities SPY (S&P 500 SPDRs) QQQ (PowerShares QQQ Trust) IWM (Russell 2000 iShares) EWC (Canada iShares) |
Characteristics
Global Equity Fund U.S. Large Cap S&P 500 Index U.S. NASDAQ 100 Fund U.S. Russell 2000 Small Cap Fund Canada |
Week % Change
-0.23% -0.43% -0.18% +0.16% +0.02% |
Non-North America Equities
|
VGK (Vanguard European VIPERs) EPP (iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan ) EWJ (Japan iShares) EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets) ILF (Latin America 40 Index iShares) Bonds
BND (Vanguard Total U.S. Bond Market) BNDX (Vanguard International Bond ETF) TIP (iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund) PCY (PowerShares Emerging Markets Debt Portfolio) |
Europe/U.K Pacific ex-Japan (inc. Australia + NZ) Japan Emerging Markets Latin America US Total Bond (44% Gov't Tsy, 56%Corp) World Investment Grade Bonds ex-US Inflation Protected Gov't Bonds Emerging Market Sovereign Debt |
-0.12% -0.47% +0.17% -0.20% +2.17% -0.18% -0.10% +0.04% -0.00% |
|
Commodities
DBC (DB Commodities Tracking Index Fund) DBA (PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund) GLD (SPDR Gold Trust Shares) SLV (iShares Silver Trust) DBB (PowerShares Metals Fund) USO (United States Oil Fund) |
Commodity Basket Soft Commodity Basket Gold Bullion Silver Bullion Industrial Metals Light Crude Oil |
+1.73% +0.60% +2.97% +2.34% +0.85% +4.06% |
Currencies
|
UUP (PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish Fund)
FXA (Currency Shares Australian Dollar Trust) FXB (Currency Shares British Pound Sterling Trust) FXC (Currency Shares Canadian Dollar Trust) FXE (Currency Shares Euro Trust) FXY (Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust) |
U.S. Dollar
Australian Dollar U.K. Sterling Canadian Dollar Euro Japanese Yen |
+0.47%
-0.52% +0.31% -0.85% -0.38% -0.17% |
Important Charts to Watch
Commodity Basket Index
Commodities (as measured by the Reuters/Jefferies CRB index; a basket of 19 commodities) bottomed in April, 2020 and peaked in June, 2022. They were highly impacted by the Covid pandemic actions and have been attempting to stabilize near 8 year highs.
Resistance @ 298.17 was broken at the start of 2025. Commodity prices strongly influence inflation so the recent breakout is indicative of returning global inflationary pressures post-Covid.
Resistance @ 298.17 was broken at the start of 2025. Commodity prices strongly influence inflation so the recent breakout is indicative of returning global inflationary pressures post-Covid.
Equity Market Volatility
The Volatility Index (VIX) is a measure of expected price fluctuations of options on the S&P 500 index options over the next 30 days (technically the VIX is quoted in percentage points and represents the expected range of movement in the S&P 500 index over the next year, at a 68% confidence level i.e. one standard deviation of the normal probability curve). For example, if the VIX is 15, this represents an expected annualized change, with a 68% probability, of less than 15% up or down.
In general it can be said there are four VIX volatility regimes:
The VXV uses the same calculation as the VIX but looks forward 3 months. When the VIX is greater than the VXV ($VIX:$VXV ratio > 1.0) the volatility structure is termed to be in "contango". It indicates traders are much more concerned about short term volatility than they are about longer term volatility and when that ratio returns to "normal" (< 0.93) it is typically a good sign market stress is easing (and a good time to add to equity positions).
As of this weeks market close volatility closed below the "VIX Event End Line" area with the VIX above 20. The volatility structure is currently BEARISH for equities.
In general it can be said there are four VIX volatility regimes:
- < 20 is trending bullish for equities
- ≈ 20-25 is choppy bullish for equities
- ≈ 25-30 is choppy bearish for equities
- > 30 is trending bearish for equities
The VXV uses the same calculation as the VIX but looks forward 3 months. When the VIX is greater than the VXV ($VIX:$VXV ratio > 1.0) the volatility structure is termed to be in "contango". It indicates traders are much more concerned about short term volatility than they are about longer term volatility and when that ratio returns to "normal" (< 0.93) it is typically a good sign market stress is easing (and a good time to add to equity positions).
As of this weeks market close volatility closed below the "VIX Event End Line" area with the VIX above 20. The volatility structure is currently BEARISH for equities.
Global Banks
Up until recently US banks were thought to be quite stable. However, several recent failures have now brought US banks into focus. Below is a chart of the KBE (US Bank ETF) and KRE (US Regional Bank ETF). We are watching closely for further signs of stress following the recent declines.
Since the 2009 market bottom Europe has been the weakest major equity growth region. As such, we continue to monitor European financial stocks (represented below using the iShares MSCI European Financials ETF).
European financials bottomed in March, 2022 and have been very strong.
European financials bottomed in March, 2022 and have been very strong.
Chinese Equities
The Shanghai Composite index was higher over the past week and closed above important resistance @ 3270-3397. It has remained rangebound since 2015.
Chinese growth remains key to both Emerging market performance as well as an indication of Developed markets demand. From its peak in mid-2015, the Shanghai index lost more than -50% to its recent lows. We would like to see significant strength return to China further indicating world economic growth has positively turned the corner.
Chinese growth remains key to both Emerging market performance as well as an indication of Developed markets demand. From its peak in mid-2015, the Shanghai index lost more than -50% to its recent lows. We would like to see significant strength return to China further indicating world economic growth has positively turned the corner.
PRECIOUS METALS
Precious metals (and their respective producers) are an area we recommend all investors consider having a small position within. Precious metals perform well during times when real (inflation adjusted) interest rates are falling and/or when the USD is weak. The following charts can be utilized to determine when the risk/reward is favorable.
Below is a ratio price chart of gold stocks (HUI; the "Gold Bugs" Index) to gold bullion going back to 1996 when the Gold Bugs Index first came into existence. As can be seen, whenever the HUI:GOLD ratio dips to below approximately 0.14 (the GREEN zone on the chart) has been a low-risk opportunity to acquire gold stocks.
Gold stocks remain in the "low-risk vs. high-reward" range and until recently remain near their cheapest valuations in 8 years. Historically purchases of gold equities when within the green-zone have been a very good long term buy-and-hold opportunities.
Gold stocks remain in the "low-risk vs. high-reward" range and until recently remain near their cheapest valuations in 8 years. Historically purchases of gold equities when within the green-zone have been a very good long term buy-and-hold opportunities.
Equally bullish is Silver (chart below) which remains at a price ratio relative to the price of gold (GREEN zone on the chart) which has historically been a low risk entry point over the past 40 years.
Silver remains cheap relative to gold.
To put the valuation into a longer term perspective, below is a chart of the Gold/Silver ratio (the opposite ratio to Silver/Gold) going back to 1687. Clearly it can be seen a gold:silver ratio > 80 has historically been an outlier over the past 100+ years (and greater than 100 is historic):
The current Gold:Silver ratio recently exceeded 120 for the 1st time in history and remains near the top end of 40 year highs. It can be seen each instance in the past 40 years where the ratio has crossed above 80 has resulted in very good long term gains in silver.
The move in Silver we have been anticipating appears to have begun but there remains plenty of room to allow the ratio to fall to the "sell" level near 45.
EVEN MORE BULLISH is the price of Platinum (chart below) which has exceeded the "buy zone" last seen in 1982! Platinum is 15-20 times rarer than gold and has rarely in history traded at a price below the price of gold (only 9.7% of the time going back to 1971). It is now the cheapest it has been GOING BACK TO AUGUST 1971 WHEN THE U.S. LEFT THE GOLD STANDARD on a relative basis:
- The current Platinum:Gold ratio remains below 0.85 (red line on the chart below).
- A Platinum/Gold ratio < 0.85 has only occurred 4.7% of the time back to 1971.
- Prior to recent lows, the lowest Platinum:Gold ratio since August 1971 (when the USD was removed from the gold standard) was hit on 20 Sept 1982 when it hit a ratio low of 0.689 (Platinum $300.40/Gold $436.00).
- If Platinum were to return to its most common ratio relative to Gold (1.0x-1.25x which has been common 35% of the time) it would imply a price rise of approximately 50-90% from recent levels.
Platinum now sits on a price support extending back to 2004 and, combined with its ratio relative to the price of gold, represents a compelling long term buy point.
The following charts and commentary (in italics; bold print is our emphasis) are sourced from Kitco from commentary sourced in Feb 2017 when the ratio was near 0.85 (Platinum has become even cheaper on a relative basis since the data was published):
Platinum to gold ratios show wide variance over the 46 year period ranging from highs above 2.5 before and soon after Nixon began taking the United States off the gold standard to periodic lows below 1.0:
Platinum to gold ratios show wide variance over the 46 year period ranging from highs above 2.5 before and soon after Nixon began taking the United States off the gold standard to periodic lows below 1.0:
Our data set covers 553 months beginning in January 1971. The distribution of ratios in both tabular and chart format follows:
Platinum/Gold Ratio: % of Months
Platinum/Gold Ratio: % of Months
- < 0.85: 4.7%
- .85-1.01: 5.0%
- 1.0-1.25: 34.7%
- 1.25-1.5: 19.3%
- 1.5-2.0: 15.4%
- 2.0-2.5: 8.9%
- > 2.5: 2.0%
From our data set and the distributions of monthly average platinum-gold ratios from January 1971 thru January 2017, I glean the following:
From a compendium of sources, the average crustal abundance of both metals is around 4 ppb. Based solely on this fact, platinum and gold should trade at about the same price.
And indeed, our compilation shows that for nearly 50% of the time since gold was decoupled from the world’s reserve currency and allowed to trade freely on exchanges, the price ratio has ranged from 0.85 to 1.25. That said, since January 1971, the average price of platinum has been $637/oz and gold has been $518/oz for an overall ratio of 1.23:1. Clearly there are other factors other than the nearly equal crustal abundances that account for this historic price relationship.
A variety of supply and demand factors cause platinum to trade at a premium to gold:
Fluctuations in the relative prices of platinum and gold are largely driven by:
Platinum functions both as a precious and industrial metal. It is usually tied to the price of gold in both short- and long-term trading patterns. In times of financial distress and economic turmoil, platinum tends to behave more like gold with widespread hoarding.
The platinum-gold ratio can be used to ascertain whether one metal is over- or undervalued with respect to the other. The current monthly average ratio below 0.85 is unusual and indicates that platinum is severely undervalued with respect to gold *
* The ratio recently hit 0.55 and remains near a record low.
- A ratio of less than 0.75 is a single outlier that occurred once during the second half of 1982 when overall ratios averaged 0.81.
- Ratios <0.85 are quite unusual at 4.7%. They occurred for two months in the first quarter of 1975, the aforementioned six months in 1982, in June-July of 1985, and for an ongoing run of 16 months that commenced in October 2015.
- Ratios from 0.85 to 1.0 constitute 15.0% of the record.
- Pt:Au from 1.0 to 1.25 is the most common range and comprises 34.7% of ratios since 1971.
- The ratios between 1.25 and 1.5 occur 19.3% of the time.
- Ratios from 1.5 to 2.0 make up 15.4% of the record.
- The 2.0-2.5 interval covers 8.9% of the months in our compendium.
- The 11 monthly outliers at >2.5 comprise 2.0% of the total record and have not occurred since 1971.
From a compendium of sources, the average crustal abundance of both metals is around 4 ppb. Based solely on this fact, platinum and gold should trade at about the same price.
And indeed, our compilation shows that for nearly 50% of the time since gold was decoupled from the world’s reserve currency and allowed to trade freely on exchanges, the price ratio has ranged from 0.85 to 1.25. That said, since January 1971, the average price of platinum has been $637/oz and gold has been $518/oz for an overall ratio of 1.23:1. Clearly there are other factors other than the nearly equal crustal abundances that account for this historic price relationship.
A variety of supply and demand factors cause platinum to trade at a premium to gold:
- Platinum is a much smaller market. Cumulative world production of platinum is estimated to be about 5% of gold (9400 tonnes versus 182,000 tonnes). From 1994-2014, 3700 tonnes of platinum were mined versus 52,600 tonnes of gold or about 7% (source: USGS).
- Platinum is largely an industrial metal. Catalytic converters, electronics, petroleum and chemical catalysts, medical technologies, and many minor uses constitute over 60% of its annual demand. Around 30% is used in jewelry and 10% for investment demand. Also, 30% of the annual platinum supply now comes from recycling, mostly from catalytic converters. Some demand is consumed and lost to the marketplace.
- Gold is overwhelmingly a precious metal; 90% is used in jewelry and investments and only 10% in industrial applications. An estimated 98% of all the gold ever mined in the world remains available and held in jewelry, by central banks, in private hoards, and as fabricated products (source: USGS).
- About 70% of yearly platinum mine supply comes from South Africa, a geopolitically risky country. Much new platinum is a by-product of nickel-copper mining and smelting; therefore, annual platinum production is dependent on the supply-demand fundamentals and prices of these primary metals.
Fluctuations in the relative prices of platinum and gold are largely driven by:
- the overall growth and health of the world’s economy and in the case of platinum, the automotive industry;
- labor, power, currency, and political issues in South Africa that cause major perturbations in the platinum supply;
- safe haven hoarding of gold and to a much lesser extent, platinum, in times of economic uncertainty and major geopolitical events; speculators moving in and out of paper markets of both metals (bullion exchanges, ETFs, and derivatives) and to a lesser extent, central bank trading of physical gold.
Platinum functions both as a precious and industrial metal. It is usually tied to the price of gold in both short- and long-term trading patterns. In times of financial distress and economic turmoil, platinum tends to behave more like gold with widespread hoarding.
The platinum-gold ratio can be used to ascertain whether one metal is over- or undervalued with respect to the other. The current monthly average ratio below 0.85 is unusual and indicates that platinum is severely undervalued with respect to gold *
* The ratio recently hit 0.55 and remains near a record low.
U.S. Equity Market Valuation
Crestmont Price/Earnings Ratio
(Source: Crestmont Research)
(Source: Crestmont Research)
A large part of the expected declines in bear markets hinges upon how "expensive" markets were when the bear market begins. In this measure, we have a long way to fall given the overvaluation at the market peak.
We illustrate the recent market overvaluation via 3 charts produced by Crestmont Research (as of 01 May 2025 with data from 1871-to-Present). While it is not necessary to understand exactly how the data is plotted, it is important for every investor to realize where current valuations stand relative to this 154 years of history.
In the following graphs note the following:
We illustrate the recent market overvaluation via 3 charts produced by Crestmont Research (as of 01 May 2025 with data from 1871-to-Present). While it is not necessary to understand exactly how the data is plotted, it is important for every investor to realize where current valuations stand relative to this 154 years of history.
In the following graphs note the following:
- the Crestmont Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio remains near the most expensive market valuation in U.S. stock market history (> 3 standard deviations about its geometric mean).
- when compared to inflation the current Crestmont P/E has now exceeded the upper extreme portion of the bubble zone defining the 1998-2000 bubble peak as shown on the 2nd chart.
- pay particular attention to chart #2 where it can be seen high equity valuations are historically supported by inflation in the 0-3% range. Inflation remains inside this corridor so markets remain vulnerable should inflation increase > 3%.
U.S. (NYSE) Margin Debt
(Source: Advisor Perspectives)
We continue to monitor with interest the current margin debt on US markets. For those who are unfamiliar, margin debt is the amount of "loans" taken out by market speculators to leverage up their equity positions. During normal bull markets margin debt will increase as the market continues to climb. This increased margin debt amplifies equity market prices. However, at some point speculators become nervous and begin to reduce their margin positions. This reduction in margin is like letting the air out of a balloon and deflates equity asset prices.
As can be seen on the below graphic, both the 2000 and 2007 market tops were signaled in advance by tops in margin debt (margin debt not inflation adjusted on this chart):
As can be seen on the below graphic, both the 2000 and 2007 market tops were signaled in advance by tops in margin debt (margin debt not inflation adjusted on this chart):
The following chart (source: D. Short) shows US equity margin debt adjusted for inflation. As can be seen, in both 2000 and 2007 inflation-adjusted margin debt peaked and then began to decline leading to the tops in the S&P 500 index. As such, margin debt rollovers acts as a good lead indicator of possible future market weakness.
A year-over-year contraction in margin debt tends to be negative for stocks as liquidity is removed from equity markets. Below is the latest YoY rate of change in margin debt (source: Yardini). Note in both the 2000 and 2007 bear markets margin debt bottomed below -40% (but the recent bottoming and return to growth in margin debt is encouraging).
U.S. Equity market Valuation Models
(Source: D. Short)
Below is a graph representing 4 different long-term valuation measures plotted back to 1900 (123 years):
As of 01 May 2025 the average of these 4 measures places the U.S. stock market (S&P 500 index) as being 134% above its long term geometric mean. This remains near the highest valuation in the history of the stock market going back to 1900 (greater than 2 standard deviations above the geometric mean).
- The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio
- The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
- The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
- The relationship of the S&P Composite price to a regression trendline
As of 01 May 2025 the average of these 4 measures places the U.S. stock market (S&P 500 index) as being 134% above its long term geometric mean. This remains near the highest valuation in the history of the stock market going back to 1900 (greater than 2 standard deviations above the geometric mean).
Another popular valuation metric is know as the "Buffett-Indicator". In an interview with Fortune magazine back in 2001 Warren Buffett remarked "it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment."
The indicator measures the price of Corporate Equities (Mkt Cap) to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a ratio going back to 1950. As can be seen below, the ratio of equity prices relative to last reported GDP has now moved well below its recent peak and is currently in the "Overvalued" zone (> 31.7% above the detrended regression line).
7-Year Asset Class Real Return Forecast
(Source: GMO LLC)
Each month GMO (Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co.) publishes a forward forecast for expected annual real rates of return (i.e. inflation adjusted) for a number of different asset classes with a 7 year forward outlook. They have historically had a very good track record (0.97 correlation) of estimating forward 7 year asset class returns based primarily upon current valuations combined with mean reversion. Charts are published following analysis of the previous months data.
We have followed GMO's methodology with interest for many years. In our experience we have found them to be conservative over the shorter term with a tenancy to make calls too early. HOWEVER, similar to Dr. John Hussman of Hussman Funds, they also tend to be right over the longer term. As such, we use their outlook as part of the valuation model within the ECAM 5 Factor model.
Above is their current forecast of expected real returns (after inflation) for the next 7 years broken down by asset class. It is clear based upon current market valuations GMO forecasts well below average annual investment returns in all asset classes with a 7 year forward time horizon (the dotted line is the historical real return of U.S. equities of +6.5% per year). This is important for those who may be soon retiring and expecting "average" returns on their equity and bond investments over the next 7 years. Current high market valuations make it a certainty forward returns over the next 7-10 years will be well below historical averages.
We have followed GMO's methodology with interest for many years. In our experience we have found them to be conservative over the shorter term with a tenancy to make calls too early. HOWEVER, similar to Dr. John Hussman of Hussman Funds, they also tend to be right over the longer term. As such, we use their outlook as part of the valuation model within the ECAM 5 Factor model.
Above is their current forecast of expected real returns (after inflation) for the next 7 years broken down by asset class. It is clear based upon current market valuations GMO forecasts well below average annual investment returns in all asset classes with a 7 year forward time horizon (the dotted line is the historical real return of U.S. equities of +6.5% per year). This is important for those who may be soon retiring and expecting "average" returns on their equity and bond investments over the next 7 years. Current high market valuations make it a certainty forward returns over the next 7-10 years will be well below historical averages.
Global Asset Class 10-year Expected Nominal Return Forecast
(data as of 31 March, 2025)
(Source: Research Affiliates)
(data as of 31 March, 2025)
(Source: Research Affiliates)
Below is the projected 10 year nominal (non-inflation adjusted) returns for the majority of global asset classes.
Data continues to point to Emerging market, Developed market ex-US and European equities as providing the greatest equity returns over the next 10 years.
Data continues to point to Emerging market, Developed market ex-US and European equities as providing the greatest equity returns over the next 10 years.
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Cycle Commentary
Below is a 20 year chart of the seasonal monthly performance of the Dow Jones Global Index. The number at the top of the column is the percentage of time the month had a positive return and at the bottom is the average percentage gain/loss for the month.
Dow Jones Global Index Market ($DJW)
As can be seen, over the past 20 years (2006-2025) the period October-April yearly offers the highest potential global equity market returns (cumulative +6.4% average return) while the period May-September offers little in total return relative to risk (0.0% cumulative average return). The month of April remains the strongest month of the calendar year with an 84% success rate and an average return of +2.3% .
S&P 500 Seasonality (historical 20 year look-back annual seasonality)
The S&P 500 Index 20 year seasonal tendency:
- flat for Jan
- in a rising trend for the first 2 weeks of Feb
- falls into an early March low
- a rising trend into a September peak
- pulls back to an early October low
- rises into year-end
Ned Davis Research 2025 Composite Model
The following is the composite directional model forecast for the S&P 500 index for 2025 based upon the following parameters (each equal weighted within the composite model) for data from 1928-2024:
- 10-year Decennial Market Cycle
- 4-year Presidential Market Cycle
- 1-year Annual Seasonal Market Cycle
The levels are not as important as the general trends/turning points as indicated by the Composite model.
The 2025 composite model indicates the following historical "glidepath" based upon previous composite cycles from 1928-2024:
- a modest up-trending market into early Feb
- a downward consolidation until late Mar
- a rising market into early Jul-late Aug
- pullback in Sep
- a rising market into year-end
U.S. 4-Year Presidential Election Cycle
* 2025 is Year-1 ("1st Presidential Year") of the 4-year cycle
Presidential Cycle S&P 500 returns (inc. dividends):
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1988-Year 4: +12.40%
1989-Year1: +27.25% 1990-Year 2: -6.56% 1991-Year 3: +26.31% 1992-Year 4: +4.46% 1993-Year 1: +7.06% 1994-Year 2: -1.54% 1995-Year 3: +34.11% 1996-Year 4: +20.26% 1997-Year 1: +31.01% 1998-Year 2: +26.67% 1999-Year 3: +19.53% 2000-Year 4: -10.14% |
2001-Year 1: -13.04%
2002-Year 2: -23.37% 2003-Year 3: +26.38% 2004-Year 4: +8.99% 2005-Year 1: +3.00% 2006-Year 2: +13.62% 2007-Year 3: +3.53% 2008-Year 4: -38.49% 2009-Year 1: +23.45% 2010-Year 2: +12.78% 2011-Year 3: +0.00% 2012-Year 4: +13.41% 2013-Year 1: +29.60% |
2014-Year 2: +11.39%
2015-Year 3: -0.73% 2016-Year 4: +11.96% 2017-Year 1: +21.83% 2018-Year 2: -4.38% 2019-Year 3: +31.49% 2020-Year 4: +16.26% 2021-Year 1: +26.89% 2022-Year 2: -19.44% 2023-Year 3: +24.23% 2024-Year 4: +23.31% 2025-Year 1: TBD |
U.S. S&P 500 Index Bear Markets
(source: Ben Carlson, CFA)
(source: Ben Carlson, CFA)
Recessionary Bear Markets (1928-2022):
Non-Recessionary Bear Markets (1928-2022):
Recessionary vs Non-Recessionary Bear Market Returns (1928-2022):
