Sentry Page Protection
Market/Model Commentary
Currently the active model portfolio as defined by our 5-factor model is:
ECAM 5-Factor Composite Model
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YELLOW |
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ECONOMIC FACTOR SUB-MODEL
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TECHNICAL FACTOR SUB-MODEL
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VALUATION FACTOR SUB-MODEL
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SENTIMENT FACTOR SUB-MODEL
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LIQUIDITY (Stress) FACTOR SUB-MODEL
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"Slow and Steady wins the race"
The Hare and the Tortoise
Aesop (Greek slave & fable author 620 BC - 560 BC)
"Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball"
Carl Swenlin (Technical Analyst)
"Investing is the intersection of economics and psychology"
Seth Klarman (Hedge fund Manager, Baupost Group)
"Everyone's got a plan ..... until they get punched in the face"
Mike Tyson (Former World Heavyweight Boxing Champion)
The Hare and the Tortoise
Aesop (Greek slave & fable author 620 BC - 560 BC)
"Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball"
Carl Swenlin (Technical Analyst)
"Investing is the intersection of economics and psychology"
Seth Klarman (Hedge fund Manager, Baupost Group)
"Everyone's got a plan ..... until they get punched in the face"
Mike Tyson (Former World Heavyweight Boxing Champion)
Latest Updates
DOW JONES GLOBAL INDEX
(15 May 2026)
Global equities were lower this past week with a percentage return (as measured by the Dow Jones Global Index) of -0.77%. This week price closed above the 40 week moving average and above price support @ 796.44.
Technical Analysis Summary (Dow Jones Global Index)
Click to set custom HTML
Dow Jones Global Index Historical Monthly Returns
Global equities closed the month of April with a gain of +9.9%. We are now within May which has historically been a poor month within the seasonal cycle:
- 2.4% cumulative percentage return over the past 26 years.
- 46.2% win percentage.
- greatest gain +9.5% (2009)
- greatest loss -9.9% (2010)
Weekly Global Macro Review
U.S. Equities
US equity markets rallied, buoyed by strong corporate earnings. As of May 7, about 85% of the S&P 500 Index had reported quarterly results. Data from FactSet indicated that a little less than 85% of these companies announced earnings that topped the consensus estimate. In aggregate, the magnitude of the positive earnings surprise was about 19%. Within the S&P 500 Index, information technology led the way, lifted by encouraging news flow for companies exposed to artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and consumption. The energy and utilities sectors, however, lost ground.
US equity markets rallied, buoyed by strong corporate earnings. As of May 7, about 85% of the S&P 500 Index had reported quarterly results. Data from FactSet indicated that a little less than 85% of these companies announced earnings that topped the consensus estimate. In aggregate, the magnitude of the positive earnings surprise was about 19%. Within the S&P 500 Index, information technology led the way, lifted by encouraging news flow for companies exposed to artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and consumption. The energy and utilities sectors, however, lost ground.
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S&P 500:
DJIA: NASDAQ 100: S&P 400 Mid-cap: Russell 2000 Small Cap: |
+2.3%
+0.2% +5.5% +1.6% +1.7% |
New claims for unemployment benefits came in at 200,000 for the week ended May 2, compared with 190,000 in the preceding seven-day period. This reading was below a consensus estimate for 205,000 new applications. Continuing claims—or the number of people receiving jobless benefits—slipped to 1.77 million, the lowest level since 2024.
Nonfarm payrolls in April increased for the second consecutive month. The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs, topping a consensus estimate for 62,000. Job gains in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail were notable drivers. Payroll growth for March, meanwhile, was revised higher to 185,000 from the previous estimate of 178,000. All told, this marked the strongest two-month period for nonfarm payroll increases since 2024. The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. However, the percentage of people working or seeking work fell to the lowest level since October 2021.
Monthly data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicated that layoffs increased 38% sequentially in April but declined 21% year over year. Information technology companies announced the most job cuts, with many attributing the reductions in force to AI.
The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that U.S. labor productivity gains, measured by nonfarm employee output per hour, slowed in the first quarter to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 0.8%, compared with the 1.6% increase logged in the final three months of 2024. Year over year, labor productivity increased by 2.9%.
Census Bureau data indicated that U.S. construction spending rebounded by 0.6% in March after declining 0.2% month over month in February. New single-family housing projects were an area of strength.
A separate Census Bureau report indicated that new orders for goods from U.S. factories increased 1.5% sequentially in March after growing 0.3% in February. Surging demand for electronic products was a key driver, reflecting the ongoing build-out of AI infrastructure.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index tumbled to 48.2 in early May, its lowest reading on record. An accompanying press release indicated that roughly one-third of survey participants mentioned higher gasoline prices and about 30% cited tariffs in their responses.
Nonfarm payrolls in April increased for the second consecutive month. The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs, topping a consensus estimate for 62,000. Job gains in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail were notable drivers. Payroll growth for March, meanwhile, was revised higher to 185,000 from the previous estimate of 178,000. All told, this marked the strongest two-month period for nonfarm payroll increases since 2024. The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. However, the percentage of people working or seeking work fell to the lowest level since October 2021.
Monthly data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicated that layoffs increased 38% sequentially in April but declined 21% year over year. Information technology companies announced the most job cuts, with many attributing the reductions in force to AI.
The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that U.S. labor productivity gains, measured by nonfarm employee output per hour, slowed in the first quarter to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 0.8%, compared with the 1.6% increase logged in the final three months of 2024. Year over year, labor productivity increased by 2.9%.
Census Bureau data indicated that U.S. construction spending rebounded by 0.6% in March after declining 0.2% month over month in February. New single-family housing projects were an area of strength.
A separate Census Bureau report indicated that new orders for goods from U.S. factories increased 1.5% sequentially in March after growing 0.3% in February. Surging demand for electronic products was a key driver, reflecting the ongoing build-out of AI infrastructure.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index tumbled to 48.2 in early May, its lowest reading on record. An accompanying press release indicated that roughly one-third of survey participants mentioned higher gasoline prices and about 30% cited tariffs in their responses.
Europe/UK Equities
The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index ended a volatile week with modest gains in local currency terms. Across the region, sentiment improved early in the week on easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and generally strong corporate earnings results. However, U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to put “much higher” tariffs on the EU if the bloc does not reduce its tariffs on U.S. goods to zero pressured markets toward the end of the week.
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German DAX:
French CAC: Italian MIB: Spanish IBEX: U.K. FTSE 100: |
+0.7%
-0.5% +1.2% +0.5% -0.0% |
The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to raise interest rates at its next meeting, according to comments from Joachim Nagel, president of the Deutsche Bundesbank and a member of the eurozone’s central bank. He remarked that the ECB must be prepared to act again unless it sees “a substantial and sustained improvement in the inflation outlook.”
Producer price inflation in Eurozone rises by the most in over four years
Eurozone producer price inflation accelerated in March, up 3.4% month on month and 2.1% year over year, according to Eurostat, the official statistical office of the EU. This represents the biggest monthly increase since August 2022. Sharply higher energy prices drove most of the rise.
March saw a 5.0% surge in factory orders in Germany. This was significantly higher than both the 1.0% increase that had been expected and the 1.4% uptick recorded in February. Growth was broad-based and included electrical equipment, data processing equipment, and mechanical engineering goods. Conversely, German construction activity fell sharply in April, with the S&P Global Germany Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) falling to 42.1, its lowest level since last March.
After falling 0.9% in February, industrial production in Spain rose by 1.8% year over year in March. This marked the first expansion since November and was driven by consumer goods.
The S&P Global UK Composite PMI came in at 52.6 in April, up from its March reading of 50.3. (PMI readings greater than 50 indicate an expansion.) The uptick reflected improvement in both the manufacturing output and services activity.
Producer price inflation in Eurozone rises by the most in over four years
Eurozone producer price inflation accelerated in March, up 3.4% month on month and 2.1% year over year, according to Eurostat, the official statistical office of the EU. This represents the biggest monthly increase since August 2022. Sharply higher energy prices drove most of the rise.
March saw a 5.0% surge in factory orders in Germany. This was significantly higher than both the 1.0% increase that had been expected and the 1.4% uptick recorded in February. Growth was broad-based and included electrical equipment, data processing equipment, and mechanical engineering goods. Conversely, German construction activity fell sharply in April, with the S&P Global Germany Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) falling to 42.1, its lowest level since last March.
After falling 0.9% in February, industrial production in Spain rose by 1.8% year over year in March. This marked the first expansion since November and was driven by consumer goods.
The S&P Global UK Composite PMI came in at 52.6 in April, up from its March reading of 50.3. (PMI readings greater than 50 indicate an expansion.) The uptick reflected improvement in both the manufacturing output and services activity.
Japan
Japan’s equity markets were closed Monday through Wednesday for the Golden Week holiday. In the shortened trading week, the Nikkei 225 Index surged +5.4%, reaching a record high on Thursday, while the broader TOPIX Index advanced +2.7%. Gains were led by a sharp rally in technology and semiconductor shares, supported by continued enthusiasm around AI-related demand and optimism that a potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic breakthrough could ease geopolitical tensions.
The yen was volatile amid speculation about fresh foreign exchange intervention by Japanese authorities to stem further weakness in the currency during the Golden Week holiday. Nevertheless, the Japanese currency ended the week little changed relative to the U.S. dollar. Currency movements remain closely monitored by policymakers given the impact of yen weakness on imported inflation and household purchasing power.
On the economic data front, inflation-adjusted wages rose 1.0% year over year in March. Although the reading was below consensus expectations of 1.8% and February’s 2.0% increase, it marked the first time since 2021 that real wages have risen for three consecutive months. The trend suggests that nominal wage growth is increasingly outpacing inflation, adding to evidence that Japan may be establishing a more durable wage-price cycle and reinforcing the case for the Bank of Japan to continue the gradual normalization of monetary policy.
China
Chinese equities advanced during the holiday-shortened week as mainland markets reopened following the May 1–5 break. The CSI 300 Index rose +1.3% for the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index gained +1.6% in local currency terms. Hong Kong equities also strengthened, with the Hang Seng Index rising +2.4%, led by technology and select consumer-related shares. Markets were further supported by signs of resilient domestic demand and hopes that Washington and Beijing would focus on maintaining near-term stability in bilateral trade relations.
China’s services activity expanded at a faster-than-expected pace in April, a private sector survey showed. The RatingDog China General Services PMI rose to 52.6 from 52.1 in March, while the composite PMI output index increased to 53.1 from 51.5. S&P Global said the improvement was driven mainly by stronger domestic demand and faster new business growth, although export orders declined for a second consecutive month. The data suggested that domestic activity remained relatively resilient despite ongoing tariff uncertainty and softer external demand.
Ahead of the planned May 14–15 meeting between Trump and President Xi Jinping in Beijing, U.S. and Chinese officials reportedly intensified discussions on extending the current trade truce and exploring potential agreements related to agricultural purchases, AI safeguards, and supply chain resilience. Markets interpreted the ongoing preparations as a signal that both sides remain focused on preventing renewed escalation in tariffs and export restrictions, despite persistent tensions surrounding Taiwan, technology controls, and broader geopolitical issues. Expectations for continued dialogue on semiconductors and rare earth supply chains helped support broader Asia risk sentiment and Hong Kong technology shares during the week. However, officials on both sides cautioned that the likelihood of a major breakthrough remains limited.
According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, domestic trips during the May 1–5 holiday rose 3.6% year over year. Total domestic tourism spending increased 2.9% from a year earlier to RMB 185.5 billion. However, spending per trip declined modestly to RMB 571 from RMB 574.1 a year earlier, based on Reuters calculations using official data. The divergence between travel volumes and per-trip spending suggests that consumers remain cautious on discretionary expenditures despite stable travel demand.
Japan’s equity markets were closed Monday through Wednesday for the Golden Week holiday. In the shortened trading week, the Nikkei 225 Index surged +5.4%, reaching a record high on Thursday, while the broader TOPIX Index advanced +2.7%. Gains were led by a sharp rally in technology and semiconductor shares, supported by continued enthusiasm around AI-related demand and optimism that a potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic breakthrough could ease geopolitical tensions.
The yen was volatile amid speculation about fresh foreign exchange intervention by Japanese authorities to stem further weakness in the currency during the Golden Week holiday. Nevertheless, the Japanese currency ended the week little changed relative to the U.S. dollar. Currency movements remain closely monitored by policymakers given the impact of yen weakness on imported inflation and household purchasing power.
On the economic data front, inflation-adjusted wages rose 1.0% year over year in March. Although the reading was below consensus expectations of 1.8% and February’s 2.0% increase, it marked the first time since 2021 that real wages have risen for three consecutive months. The trend suggests that nominal wage growth is increasingly outpacing inflation, adding to evidence that Japan may be establishing a more durable wage-price cycle and reinforcing the case for the Bank of Japan to continue the gradual normalization of monetary policy.
China
Chinese equities advanced during the holiday-shortened week as mainland markets reopened following the May 1–5 break. The CSI 300 Index rose +1.3% for the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index gained +1.6% in local currency terms. Hong Kong equities also strengthened, with the Hang Seng Index rising +2.4%, led by technology and select consumer-related shares. Markets were further supported by signs of resilient domestic demand and hopes that Washington and Beijing would focus on maintaining near-term stability in bilateral trade relations.
China’s services activity expanded at a faster-than-expected pace in April, a private sector survey showed. The RatingDog China General Services PMI rose to 52.6 from 52.1 in March, while the composite PMI output index increased to 53.1 from 51.5. S&P Global said the improvement was driven mainly by stronger domestic demand and faster new business growth, although export orders declined for a second consecutive month. The data suggested that domestic activity remained relatively resilient despite ongoing tariff uncertainty and softer external demand.
Ahead of the planned May 14–15 meeting between Trump and President Xi Jinping in Beijing, U.S. and Chinese officials reportedly intensified discussions on extending the current trade truce and exploring potential agreements related to agricultural purchases, AI safeguards, and supply chain resilience. Markets interpreted the ongoing preparations as a signal that both sides remain focused on preventing renewed escalation in tariffs and export restrictions, despite persistent tensions surrounding Taiwan, technology controls, and broader geopolitical issues. Expectations for continued dialogue on semiconductors and rare earth supply chains helped support broader Asia risk sentiment and Hong Kong technology shares during the week. However, officials on both sides cautioned that the likelihood of a major breakthrough remains limited.
According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, domestic trips during the May 1–5 holiday rose 3.6% year over year. Total domestic tourism spending increased 2.9% from a year earlier to RMB 185.5 billion. However, spending per trip declined modestly to RMB 571 from RMB 574.1 a year earlier, based on Reuters calculations using official data. The divergence between travel volumes and per-trip spending suggests that consumers remain cautious on discretionary expenditures despite stable travel demand.
Weekly Performance
U.S. Indices
Dow +0.2% to 49,609. S&P 500 +2.3% to 7,399. Nasdaq +4.5% to 26,247. Russell 2000 +1.7% to 2,861. CBOE Volatility Index +1.2% to 17.19.
S&P 500 Sectors
Consumer Staples -0.2%. Utilities -4%. Financials -1.4%. Telecom +1.9%. Healthcare -1.2%. Industrials +0.2%. Information Technology +7%. Materials +0.6%. Energy -5.4%. Consumer Discretionary +1.8%. Real Estate flat.
World Indices
London -1.3% to 10,233. France flat at 8,113. Germany +0.2% to 24,339. Japan +5.4% to 62,714. China +1.7% to 4,180. Hong Kong +2.4% to 26,394. India +0.5% to 77,328.
Commodities and Bonds
Crude Oil WTI -6.4% to $95.42/bbl. Gold +1.9% to $4,730.7/oz. Natural Gas -0.8% to 2.757. Ten-Year Bond Yield -0.2 bps to 4.364.
Forex and Cryptos
EUR/USD +0.55%. USD/JPY -0.25%. GBP/USD +0.43%. Bitcoin +2.1%. Litecoin +5.8%. Ethereum -0.1%. XRP +2.4%.
Dow +0.2% to 49,609. S&P 500 +2.3% to 7,399. Nasdaq +4.5% to 26,247. Russell 2000 +1.7% to 2,861. CBOE Volatility Index +1.2% to 17.19.
S&P 500 Sectors
Consumer Staples -0.2%. Utilities -4%. Financials -1.4%. Telecom +1.9%. Healthcare -1.2%. Industrials +0.2%. Information Technology +7%. Materials +0.6%. Energy -5.4%. Consumer Discretionary +1.8%. Real Estate flat.
World Indices
London -1.3% to 10,233. France flat at 8,113. Germany +0.2% to 24,339. Japan +5.4% to 62,714. China +1.7% to 4,180. Hong Kong +2.4% to 26,394. India +0.5% to 77,328.
Commodities and Bonds
Crude Oil WTI -6.4% to $95.42/bbl. Gold +1.9% to $4,730.7/oz. Natural Gas -0.8% to 2.757. Ten-Year Bond Yield -0.2 bps to 4.364.
Forex and Cryptos
EUR/USD +0.55%. USD/JPY -0.25%. GBP/USD +0.43%. Bitcoin +2.1%. Litecoin +5.8%. Ethereum -0.1%. XRP +2.4%.
WEEKLY ASSET CLASS MONITOR
(week ending 15 May 2026)
(week ending 15 May 2026)
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Asset Class
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Region
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ETF Ticker
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Weekly
Return |
2026 Return
(inc. Dividends) |
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Equities
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World
U.S. Europe Asia Pacific ex-Japan Emerging Market |
VT
VTI VGK AAXJ VWO |
-1.07%
-0.04% -2.64% -4.02% -3.47% |
+9.09%
+8.53% +3.09% +21.11% +8.71% |
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Bonds
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U.S. Bonds
International Bonds Global Bonds |
BND
BNDX BNDW |
-1.10%
-1.18% -1.13% |
-0.51%
-0.66% -0.58% |
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Real Estate Equities
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Global Real Estate Equities
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REET
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-2.19%
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+7.98%
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Precious Metals Equities
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Global Gold Miners
Global Junior Gold Miners |
RING
GDXJ |
-7.55%
-7.53% |
+3.23
+2.28% |
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET MONITOR
The past 5 years have been very challenging for global equities. They had a wicked roller-coaster ride in 2020 on the back of the Covid pandemic where they peaked on 12 Feb 2020 and fell dramatically (-34%) into their 23 Mar lows. They then rebounded and regained their losses by year-end.
For most of 2021 they remained largely in a "holding pattern" digesting their gains but declined considerably throughout 2022 before bottoming in October. Strong returns have been seen since the Oct/22 bottom with a significant drop/rise "V" reversal in April 2025 as US tariffs were announce and then revised lower as the year progressed.
At present the war in the Middle East is whipsawing all markets as oil price increases have a pronounced effect upon inflation with another "V" reversal having occurred in Mar 2026.
For most of 2021 they remained largely in a "holding pattern" digesting their gains but declined considerably throughout 2022 before bottoming in October. Strong returns have been seen since the Oct/22 bottom with a significant drop/rise "V" reversal in April 2025 as US tariffs were announce and then revised lower as the year progressed.
At present the war in the Middle East is whipsawing all markets as oil price increases have a pronounced effect upon inflation with another "V" reversal having occurred in Mar 2026.
Asset Class Return Monitor
(for week ending 08 May 2026)
(for week ending 08 May 2026)
Equities Legend:
Bonds Legend:
Currencies Legend:
Commodities Legend:
- Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT): (Cyan)
- Vanguard Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (VTI): (Red)
- Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK): (Lime Green)
- Ishares MSCI Asia ex-Japan ETF (AAXJ): (Dark Blue)
- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO): (Pink)
Bonds Legend:
- Vanguard Total U.S. Bond Market ETF (BND): (Black)
- Vanguard Total International ex-U.S. Bond ETF (BNDX): (Green)
Currencies Legend:
- U.S. Dollar Index (Cash Settlement EOD) ($USD): (Orange)
- Euro (Philadelphia Index) ($XEU): (Maroon)
Commodities Legend:
- PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC): (Purple)
- SPDR Gold ETF (GLD): (Sky Blue)
Past Week Asset Class returns
- Over the past week global equities (as measured by the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (shown in CYAN) gained +2.47%.
- Asia Pacific ex-Japan markets were the top performing equity region this past week with European markets lagging.
- U.S. bonds (Black) and International bonds (Green) were higher on the week.
- Commodities were lower on the week with the U.S. Dollar index down -0.32%.
Year-to-Date (2026) Asset Class returns
- In 2026 global equities (as measured by the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF shown in CYAN) have gained +10.27%.
- Asia Pacific ex-Japan market equities are the top performing equity region year-to-date with European markets lagging.
- Bonds have had positive returns in 2026 with U.S. bonds (Black) out-performing International Bonds (Green).
- The US Dollar index has lost -0.45% year-to-date.
The stock market is driven by a combination of corporate profits, trends, economic data, fund flows, expectations, greed, fear, opinions, analysis, geopolitical events and human nature. These variables are often in conflict with one another (especially in the short run) and form a sine-wave cycle of investor psychology which begins with optimism, peaks with euphoria, bottoms with despair and returns to optimism.
It must be reemphasized a complete market cycles is composed of 2 distinct cycles/phases: a "bull 1/2 cycle" and a "bear 1/2 cycle".
The Math of Losses
- a 20% loss requires a 25% gain to return to breakeven
- a 30% loss requires a 43% gain to return to breakeven
- a 40% loss requires a 67% gain to return to breakeven
- a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to return to breakeven
- a 60% loss requires a 150% gain to return to breakeven
This is why it is so important to not let losses continue in the face of a bear market decline and why we advocate phased movements into cash as our 5-factor model reverts to Red. The below graphic represents how we move within equity markets through a complete sine-wave market cycle:
World Regional Equity Monitor
We use the following U.S. exchange traded funds to monitor equity performance for the various world regions:
- World Equities: Vanguard Total World ETF (Cyan)
- U.S. Equity: Vanguard Total Market ETF (Red)
- European Equity: Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF: (Lime Green)
- Japan Equity: iShares Japan ETF (Black)
- Asia ex-Japan Equity: iShares MSCI All-Country Asia ex-Japan ETF (Blue)
- Emerging Market Equity: Vanguard FTSE Emerging Market ETF (Pink)
1 Year Rolling Regional Equity Performance
- Over the past 12 month rolling period regional equity performance has been positive for monitored regions.
- Overall world equity performance (as measured by the Vanguard Total World ETF) have returned +31.84% (including dividends) over the past 12 month rolling period.
3 Month Rolling Regional Equity Performance
- Over the past 3 month rolling period the strongest performing world equity region has been Asia Pacific ex-Japan markets with European markets the weakest.
- Positive equity returns have been evident over the past quarter (3 months) in monitored regions.
1 Month Rolling Regional Equity Performance
- Over the past 1 month rolling period the strongest performing world equity region has been Asia Pacific ex-Japan markets with Japan markets the weakest.
- Positive equity returns have been achieved over the past month for monitored regions.
Past Week Regional Equity Performance
- Over the past week the major global equity regions were higher with Japan markets outperforming other regions.
Latest Global Equity "Big Picture"
World equity market returns are monitored via the following index and ETF equity charts:
- Dow Jones Global Market Index (cap-weighted)
- Value Line Geometric U.S. Index (equal-weighted)
- Global Dow Index (equal-weighted)
- MSCI ACWI ETF (cap-weighted)
Dow Jones Global Market Index
(market cap weighted index)
For the week the Dow Jones Global Index had a loss of -0.77%. Price closed above the 52 week moving average (green line) and above support @ 796.44.
Value Line Geometric Index and Global Dow Index
(equal weighted indexes)
The Value Line Geometric Index ($XVG) is the median price performance of 1700 U.S. companies equal weighted (as opposed to most indexes which are market cap weighted) into an index. The Global Dow index ($GDOW) is a measure of the top 150 international companies equal weighted within the index.
These indexes are important as they equal-weight the price performance of all the companies held within the respective index. This removes the distortions associated with a small group of highly valued companies (which may be performing well) masking the performance of struggling companies and represents a good overview of overall internal equity breadth/strength.
These indexes are important as they equal-weight the price performance of all the companies held within the respective index. This removes the distortions associated with a small group of highly valued companies (which may be performing well) masking the performance of struggling companies and represents a good overview of overall internal equity breadth/strength.
Value Line Geometric Index ($XVG) Weekly
The equal-weight Value Line Geometric Index closed with a weekly loss of -2.86%.
Global Dow Index ($GDOW) Weekly
The equal-weight Global Dow Index closed with a weekly loss of -0.78%.
iShares MSCI ACWI ETF
(market cap weighted ETF)
The iShares MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) ETF is used as a benchmark to compare the performance of the various broad-based equity funds available in the Emirates Group Provident Scheme (EGPS) A/B/C accounts. It serves as a benchmark to determine how equity markets are performing on a worldwide basis. This assists in determining 2 parameters; whether to be invested in equities and also which funds within the EGPS offer the best performance relative to the benchmark.
The ETF is composed of the following regional components/weightings:
The ETF is composed of the following regional components/weightings:
ACWI Monthly Chart
Global equity markets bottomed in Oct 2022 and reached new all-time highs in February 2026.
For the month of May ACWI has gained +1.68%. It closed the month of April above the 12 month simple moving average (blue moving average on the chart above) keeping the long term trend BULLISH until month end.
For the month of May ACWI has gained +1.68%. It closed the month of April above the 12 month simple moving average (blue moving average on the chart above) keeping the long term trend BULLISH until month end.
ACWI Weekly Chart
This past week ACWI lost -0.84%. Price closed above the 40 week simple moving average (shown in GREEN) and above support.
World Equity Market Regional Relative Rotation Graphs
Below is a graph of 24 major regional equity market ETF's + ACWI (our world equity benchmark) shown on a Relative Rotation chart measured weekly with a 10 week look-back period (which forms the "tail" of the ETF). This graph allows us to observe over time how various regional ETF's are moving relative to both each other and also relative to cash.
- Leading (Green): (Momentum Positive + Price Relative Strength Positive)
- Weakening (Yellow): (Momentum Negative + Price Relative Strength Positive)
- Lagging (Red): (Momentum Negative + Price Relative Strength Negative)
- Improving (Blue): (Momentum Positive + Price Relative Strength Negative)
Given the cyclical nature of momentum and price within equity markets, in general the RRG charts will cycle in a clockwise manner (though not necessarily will each pass through all 4 quadrants as it is possible to rotate through an adjacent quadrant only).
Weekly Regional (Country) Relative Rotation Graphs (long term)
The RRG trend analysis status is currently BULLISH for world equities:
- ACWI Weekly Quadrant: LEADING Quadrant
- 24 Country Net Score: NEGATIVE
- ACWI price Relative Strength (horizontal axis): POSITIVE
- ACWI price Momentum (vertical axis): POSITIVE
Coincident Equity Market Indicators
Crude Oil
Crude oil was lower over the past week and closed back above its previous range. The 3-month correlation between crude oil and global equities is negative.
Gold
Gold was higher over the past week and closed within its recent trading range. The 3-month correlation between gold and global equities is neutral.
Commodities
Commodities were lower over the past week and closed above their previous range. The 3-month correlation between commodities and global equities is neutral.
U.S. 30 Year Treasury Bond
U.S. 30 year bond prices were higher over the past week and remain within their current range. The 3-month correlation between US government bonds and global equities is positive.
Current 5-Factor Model Indications
The combined 5-Factor quantitative model is currently YELLOW (neutral). The 5-Factor model currently has the following sub-model readings:
Economic Model
The Economic model is currently GREEN. The 1-year rate-of-change in global economic data had moved towards contraction but has stabilized over the past several months. The model is composed of numerous inputs including data from the following sources:
Forward Forecast Data:
Forward Forecast Data:
- OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI)
- J.P. Morgan Global Purchasing Managers (PMI) Index
- World Bank Monthly Global Economic Report
OECD Composite Leading Indicators
(data as of 07 May 2026)
(data as of 07 May 2026)
The OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is designed to predict business cycle changes 6-9 months in advance. It provides early signals of turning points in business cycles showing fluctuation of the economic activity around its long term potential level.
A CLI reading above (below) 100 is always an indication that anticipates levels of GDP above (below) long-term trend.
A CLI reading above (below) 100 is always an indication that anticipates levels of GDP above (below) long-term trend.
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J.P. Morgan Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
(06 May 2026)
(06 May 2026)
The J.P. Morgan monthly PMI Report is based on the results of manufacturing and service sector surveys covering over 18,000 purchasing executives in over 40 countries. Together these countries account for an estimated 89% of global gross domestic product (GDP).
Questions are asked about real events and are not opinion based. Data are presented in the form of diffusion indices, where an index reading above 50.0 indicates an increase in the variable since the previous month and below 50.0 a decrease. As such, using the PMI data gives us a real-time look at global growth.
Questions are asked about real events and are not opinion based. Data are presented in the form of diffusion indices, where an index reading above 50.0 indicates an increase in the variable since the previous month and below 50.0 a decrease. As such, using the PMI data gives us a real-time look at global growth.
- readings > 50 indicate economic expansion
- readings < 50 indicate economic contraction.
Global Composite Output Index
- Global Composite Output Index increased to 51.8 (51.0 the previous month) and remains in modest expansion.
- It remains below its long term average Global PMI measure of 53.2.
World Bank Global Monthly Outlook
(April 2026)
(April 2026)
U.S. Economic Growth & Inflation
Year-over-Year GDP growth
The US economy expanded 2.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, slightly above the previous period's growth of 2.0%, according to preliminary estimates. GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.15 percent from 1948 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 13.40 percent in the fourth quarter of 1950 and a record low of -7.40 percent in the second quarter of 2020.
Quarter-over-Quarter GDP growth
The US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.0% in Q1 2026, up from 0.5% in the previous quarter but below market expectations of 2.3%, according to a preliminary estimate. Government spending rebounded by 4.4%, recovering from a 5.6% contraction in Q4 2025, as activity resumed following the end of the government shutdown. Gross private domestic investment increased by 8.7%, compared to 2.3% in the previous quarter, with business investment in equipment and structures surging 10.4%, the fastest in nearly three years, driven in part by rapid spending on artificial intelligence technologies. Consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of economic activity, rose at a slower pace of 1.6% in Q1, following a 1.9% increase in Q4, supported by demand for services. Net trade contributed negatively to GDP, as exports rose by 12.9% while imports jumped at a faster rate of 21.4%
Annualized Inflation
The annual inflation rate in the US accelerated to 3.8% in April 2026, the highest since May 2023, and compared to 3.3% in March. Figures came above forecasts of 3.7% as the oil shock triggered by the war with Iran continues to push prices higher. Energy costs jumped 17.9%, the steepest annual increase since September 2022, compared to 12.5% in March, mostly due to gasoline (28.4% vs 18.9%) and fuel oil (54.3%). Inflation also accelerated for shelter (3.3% vs 3%) and food (2.3% vs 2.7%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI was up 0.6%, easing from the 0.9% rise recorded in March, which was the largest monthly gain since June 2022, and in line with forecasts. Core inflation rate also edged higher, albeit at a more moderate pace, to 2.8% year-on-year, the highest level since September, from 2.6% in March and above forecasts of 2.7%. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices increased by 0.4%, up from 0.2% in both February and March and forecasts of 0.3%.
Eurozone Economic Growth & Inflation
Year-over-Year GDP growth
The Euro Area GDP expanded by 0.8% from the previous year in the first quarter of 2026, below expectations of a 0.9% growth rate and dropping from the 1.3% last quarter to mark the softest pace of expansion since the second quarter of 2022. The slowdown was aligned with the energy crunch from the Middle East following the outbreak of war in the region, which triggered surges in the cost of major energy goods since the start of March. Lower household consumption was noted among the largest economies of the bloc, with growth slowing for France (1.1% vs 1.3% in 2025Q4), Germany (0.3% vs 0.4%), Italy (0.7% vs 0.9%), and the Netherlands (1.2% vs 1.8%). Spain remained the outperformer in GDP growth, expanding 2.7% from the 2.6% last quarter
Quarter-over-Quarter GDP growth
The Eurozone GDP expanded by 0.1% from the previous quarter in the first quarter of 2026, missing the market consensus of a 0.2% expansion, and slowing from the 0.2% increase from the earlier period. The data reflected pressure from the tight supply of energy that is essential for major economies in the currency bloc, after the outbreak of war in the Middle East halted flows of oil, its byproducts, and liquified natural gas. The inflationary pressure from shortage risks drove ECB policymakers to consider higher rates this year and its largest members to revise growth downwards. French GDP projections were trimmed and its Q1 GDP unexpectedly stalled (vs 0.2% in Q4), while Italy (0.2% vs 0.3%) revised its projection lower and hinted it may not meet its fiscal projections despite. In turn, the German GDP expanded faster (0.3% vs 0.2%) amid infrastructure and defense deficit spending. Slower output was also seen from the Netherlands (0.1% vs 0.4%).
Annualized Inflation
Euro area annual inflation climbed to 3% in April 2026, the highest since September 2023, up from 2.6% in March and slightly above market expectations of 2.9%, according to a preliminary estimate. Energy costs soared 10.9%, the most since February 2023, driven by the Middle East conflict. Also, prices rose faster for non-energy industrial goods (0.8% vs 0.5%), and food, alcohol, and tobacco (2.5% vs 2.4%). On the other hand, services inflation slowed to 3.0%, from 3.2%. The core rate, excluding volatile energy, also cooled to 2.2% from 2.3%. Among the Eurozone’s largest economies, inflation accelerated in Germany (2.9% vs 2.8%), France (2.5% vs 2%), Italy (2.9% vs 1.6%) and Spain (3.5% vs 2.4%).
Japan Economic Growth & Inflation
Year-over-Year Annual GDP growth
The gross domestic product in Japan expanded by just 0.1% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, easing from a 0.6% growth in the previous period, and marking the softest expansion since Q2 2024.
Quarter-over-Quarter GDP growth
Japan’s GDP grew 0.3% qoq in Q4 2025, higher than the flash estimate of 0.1% and in line with market expectations. The reading followed a 0.7% contraction in Q3, amid upward revisions to private consumption, business investment, and government spending. Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of the economy, was revised up to a 0.3% increase (vs 0.1% in an earlier estimate and after 0.5% growth in Q3), partly supported by Tokyo’s fiscal measures aimed at easing cost-of-living pressures. Business investment was also adjusted sharply higher to 1.2% (vs 0.2% previously, after flat growth in Q3), pointing to stronger corporate spending on capacity and equipment. Government spending rose 0.4% (vs 0.1% in the flash reading, after 0.1% in Q3), reflecting continued fiscal support. Meanwhile, net trade made no contribution to growth, as both exports (-0.3% vs -1.4%) and imports (-0.3% vs -0.1%) declined, partly due to softer external demand and weaker domestic import needs.
Annualized Inflation
Japan’s annual inflation rose to 1.5% in March 2026 from February’s near four-year low of 1.3%, with transport costs posting the fastest increase in four months (2.1% vs 0.5% in February), amid the effects of the Middle East tensions. Inflation also accelerated for household items (2.7% vs 1.2%), communications (7.0% vs 6.8%), recreation (2.3% vs 2.2%), and miscellaneous goods (0.7% vs 0.6%). Price growth held steady for clothing (at 2.1%) and housing (at 1.0%), but eased for healthcare (0.2% vs 0.4%). Food inflation slowed to a 17-month low (3.6% vs 4.0%), driven by the softest rise in rice prices in two years. Meanwhile, electricity prices (-8.0% vs -8.0) and gas (-5.2% vs -5.1%) fell further, reflecting subsidy effects. Core inflation accelerated to 1.8% from February's 1.6%, but remained below the central bank’s 2% target for the second month. Monthly, the CPI increased 0.4%, reversing a 0.2% decline in January and February and marking the highest reading since January 2025.
China Economic Growth & Inflation
Year-over-Year GDP growth
China’s economy expanded 5.0% yoy in Q1 2026, accelerating from 4.5% in Q4 and beating forecasts of 4.8%. It marked the fastest annual growth in three quarters, supported largely by resilient export performance although Beijing braces for potential fallout from the Iran conflict. So far, the economy has managed to absorb the shock with limited disruption, supported by ample oil reserves, a diversified energy mix, and state controls that help contain price volatility. However, the underlying momentum appeared uneven in March, as industrial output rose more than expected, but retail sales growth missed estimates. Exports slowed sharply in the month while imports surged. Meantime, fixed-asset investment in the January to March period continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace. Despite the stronger start, economists expect China’s growth momentum to weaken over the rest of the year, weighed down by mounting external headwinds, particularly if the Middle East crisis is prolonged.
Quarter-over-Quarter GDP growth
China’s GDP grew 1.3% qoq in Q1 2026, matching market expectations and following a 1.2% increase in Q4. The latest result marked the strongest quarterly expansion since Q4 of 2024, supported by continued policy backing from Beijing. However, the statistics agency warned of an “acute” imbalance between “strong supply and weak demand,” adding that the external environment is becoming increasingly complex and volatile. The government has set a budget deficit target of around 4% of GDP for this year and plans sizable bond issuance to help sustain growth. Meanwhile, the central bank has signaled it will maintain an accommodative monetary stance, although the scope for aggressive rate cuts remains constrained by rising inflation. Economists currently expect a 20bp cut in banks’ reserve requirement ratio in Q3 to support liquidity. The Politburo is expected to convene later this month to review the economic outlook and policy direction.
Annualized Inflation
China’s annual inflation accelerated to 1.2% in April 2026 from 1.0% in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 0.8%. Non-food inflation climbed (1.8% vs 1.2% in March), with transport costs picking up significantly (4.6% vs 0.9%), amid higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions linked to the prolonged Middle East conflict. Also, prices continued to rise for clothing (1.5% vs 1.6%), healthcare (2.2% vs 1.9%), and education (1.3% vs 1.1%). In contrast, a decline in housing costs lingered (-0.2% vs -0.2%). On the food side, prices fell 1.6%, reversing a 0.3% increase in March and marking the first drop since January, reflecting persistently weak pork prices and declines in costs of fresh vegetables and fresh fruits. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 1.2% yoy, after March's 1.1% gain. On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3%, swinging from a 0.7% fall previously and defying consensus for a 0.1% decline.
Valuation Model
The Valuation model is currently YELLOW. Equity valuations are currently near their "fair value" relative to underlying current global economic fundamentals.
Technical Model
The Technical model is currently GREEN. Global equity markets have been in a strong uptrend since bottoming 30 Mar 2026 on hopes of a conclusion to the Middle East war.
Sentiment Model
The Sentiment model is currently YELLOW. Overall sentiment has turned bearish (sentiment acts as an inverse shorter-term trading indicator).
Liquidity/Economic Stress Model
The Liquidity/Economic Stress model is currently GREEN.
World Bond Asset Class Return Monitor
We use the following U.S. exchange traded funds to monitor bond performance for the various bond asset classes:
Total Market Bond Basket:
- U.S. Total Bond Market (BND): (Red)
- International (ex-U.S.) Total Bond Market (BNDX): (Blue)
- U.S. Gov't Treasury Bonds (GOVT): (Orange)
- Foreign Developed Market Gov't Treasury Bonds (BWX): (Pink)
- U.S. Corporate Bonds (LQD): (Maroon)
- International Corporate Bonds (PICB): (Black)
- U.S. High Yield Bonds (JNK): (Purple)
- International High Yield Bonds (IHY): (Green)
- U.S. Gov't Inflation Protected Bonds (TIP): (Lime Green)
- International Gov't Inflation-Protected Bonds (WIP): (Cyan)
1 Year Rolling Bond Performance
- Over the past 12 months rolling period the top performing bond asset class has been Int'l Gov't Inflation-Protected Bonds with Int'l Gov't Treasury Bonds the worst performing.
- The U.S. Total Bond Market (RED) and the International (ex-U.S.) Total Bond Market (BLUE) have delivered positive returns over the past year.
3 Month Rolling Bond Performance
- Over the past 3 month rolling period the top performing bond asset class has been Int'l Gov't Inflation-Protected Bonds with Int'l Corporate Bonds lagging.
- U.S. Total Bond Market (RED) and International (ex-U.S.) Total Bond Market (BLUE) have delivered mixed returns over the past quarter (3 months).
1 Month Rolling Bond Performance
- Over the past 1 month rolling period the top performing bond asset class has been Int'l Gov't Inflation-Protected Bonds with US Gov't Treasury Bonds lagging.
- The U.S. Total Bond Market (RED) and the International (ex-U.S.) Total Bond Market (BLUE) have delivered mixed returns over the past month.
Past Week Bond Asset Class Performance
- Over the past week Int'l Corporate Bonds were the top performing bond class.
- The U.S. Total Bond Market (RED) and the International (ex-U.S.) Total Bond Market (BLUE) posted higher returns over the past week.
Commentary:
It has been shown in repeated studies over many years a balanced portfolio consisting of both equities and bonds (with percentage holdings in each adjusted according to personal risk tolerances) remains the best methodology in managing a long term retirement portfolio (due to the independent/low correlated function each takes when navigating though various market cycles and economic conditions).
It is best to think of bonds and equities as 2 independent brains each looking at the market from a different perspective:
As such, historically both serve a useful purpose in a balanced portfolio.
It is best to think of bonds and equities as 2 independent brains each looking at the market from a different perspective:
- Equities: Corporate profits focused.
- Bonds: Economic growth and Inflation focused.
As such, historically both serve a useful purpose in a balanced portfolio.
ETF Bond Proxy
Global aggregate bonds posted a loss of -1.13% over the past week. They have remained rangebound since to mid-2025 and closed Feb/2026 at a 5 year high. They closed the week above support and above the 52 week moving average.
It is important to note since late 2021 global bonds have acted as a poor portfolio diversifier as they have largely been correlated with global equities. We are monitoring closely for the first indication of a decoupling.
It is important to note since late 2021 global bonds have acted as a poor portfolio diversifier as they have largely been correlated with global equities. We are monitoring closely for the first indication of a decoupling.
U.S. 10 year Treasury Yield
The most recent global bear market in bonds began in mid-2020 when the US Federal Reserve pushed interest rates to 0% to combat deflation. Below is charts for the various US Treasury yields from their peak (bond prices move inverse to yields so falling treasury yields are bullish for bond prices).
U.S. treasury yields rose in a parabolic manner into Oct, 2023 before their recent decline. This past week yields closed above support @ 4.213% and above the 52 week moving average.
German 10 year Bund Yield
German 10 year treasury yields bottomed in early 2020 during the depths of the European Covid shutdowns. They rebounded in a parabolic manner into Oct, 2023 before their recent decline. This past week yields closed above the 52 week moving average and above support @ 2.89%.
Japanese 10 year Treasury Yield
Japan had been fighting deflation for decades but recent unprecedented monetary policy by the BOJ appears to be having effect upon inflation (and rising yields).
After bottoming at near -0.28% in mid-2016, yields rose and were able to finally break above 0.15% in early 2022.
The BOJ ended yield curve control (YCC) at the end of March, 2024 and since this period rates have been set by market demand . This past week yields closed above support @ 2.11% and above the 52 week moving average.
After bottoming at near -0.28% in mid-2016, yields rose and were able to finally break above 0.15% in early 2022.
The BOJ ended yield curve control (YCC) at the end of March, 2024 and since this period rates have been set by market demand . This past week yields closed above support @ 2.11% and above the 52 week moving average.
Currencies
Below is the 12/3/1 month and weekly rolling returns for the 6 currencies that make up the U.S. Dollar index. The U.S. Dollar index is composed of a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value relative to the 6 currencies in the following list:
In addition, we also include the following for comparison purposes:
- Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight.
- Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight.
- U.K. Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight.
- Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight.
- Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight.
- Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight.
In addition, we also include the following for comparison purposes:
- The Australian Dollar (not a part of the USD Index) as it is a popular commodity currency.
- Gold (priced in USD) as it typically acts more like a currency void of fiat printing.
1 Year Rolling Currency Performance
- Over the past 12 months rolling period the top performing major currency has been Gold with the Japanese Yen the worst performing.
3 Month Rolling Currency Performance
- Over the past 3 month rolling period the top performing currency has been the Australian Dollar with Gold lagging.
1 Month Rolling Currency Performance
- Over the past 1 month rolling period the top performing currency has been the Australian Dollar with the US Dollar Index lagging.
Past Week (7-day) Currency Performance
- Over the past week the top performing major currency was the Japanese Yen with Gold lagging.
U.S. Dollar: (Bearish Bias)
Commentary:
The USD was down -0.32% over the past week. It had been rangebound and confined to an 8-point consolidation range since late 2022 before its recent breakdown.
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon respective time period closing price):
Weekly: 96.92 / 101.09
Monthly: 93.03 / 100.21
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon respective time period closing price):
Weekly: 96.92 / 101.09
Monthly: 93.03 / 100.21
US Dollar Index Daily charts
The 2 year daily chart (above) shows the trading range the USD has been confined to since Apr 2025. The 100.26-100.39 remains an important resistance zone with daily support @ 96.63.
Over the past week the USD closed below its short term trend 50 and 200 day moving averages.
(Short Term Bearish)
(Short Term Bearish)
US Dollar Index Weekly charts
The weekly chart shows the recent trading range in 2025. Price closed the week below the intermediate term trend 20 and 65 week moving averages.
(Intermediate Term Bearish)
(Intermediate Term Bearish)
A longer term 20 year look-back at the USD shows the 79.05-104.32 price (yellow) area has been a very significant bull/bear battle zone since 1987.
US Dollar Index Monthly chart
For the month of May the U.S. Dollar index has lost -0.22%. Price remains confined to the rising price channel from the 2011 lows and remains below strong monthly resistance @ 98.66-100.21.
Price closed April below the long term trend 10 month moving average switching the long term bias bearish until months end.
(Long Term Bearish)
Price closed April below the long term trend 10 month moving average switching the long term bias bearish until months end.
(Long Term Bearish)
Euro (Bullish Bias)
The Euro was up +0.53% over the past week. It has remained largely range bound between 105-112 over the past year before its most recent breakout.
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon respective time period closing price):
Weekly: 114.11 / 118.68
Monthly: 113.81 / 117.89
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon respective time period closing price):
Weekly: 114.11 / 118.68
Monthly: 113.81 / 117.89
Euro Daily Charts
The Euro topped out in late 2020 @ 123.28 and had been on a steady decline until September 2022. It rose dramatically into the end of 2022 and had remained range bound in 2023-24 before its recent breakout.
On the 2nd daily chart price it can be seen how important the yellow band daily resistance zone @ 114.61-116.04 is going back to 2015 (which should now act as support).
The Euro closed the week above the short term trend 50 and 200 day moving averages.
(Short Term Bullish)
On the 2nd daily chart price it can be seen how important the yellow band daily resistance zone @ 114.61-116.04 is going back to 2015 (which should now act as support).
The Euro closed the week above the short term trend 50 and 200 day moving averages.
(Short Term Bullish)
Euro Weekly Chart
The Euro peaked in 2008 and achieved a bottom in 2022. It has been on a steady decline but recently broke above important resistance @ 104.51-104.96 (which now should act as support).
This past week the Euro closed the week above the intermediate trend 20 week + 65 week moving averages.
(Intermediate Term Bullish)
This past week the Euro closed the week above the intermediate trend 20 week + 65 week moving averages.
(Intermediate Term Bullish)
Euro Monthly
For the month of May the Euro has gained +0.46%. On a monthly closing basis it closed the month of April above the long term trend 10 month moving average switching the long term outlook bullish until months end.
(Long Term Bullish)
(Long Term Bullish)
UK Pound (Bullish Bias)
U.K. Pound Daily Chart
U.K. Pound Weekly Charts
U.K. Pound Monthly Charts
The British Pound was up +0.39% over the past week. It continues to recover from lows last seen 37 years ago. Historically since 1987 the Pound has traded within a range of 1.40 to 2.00 with brief excursions above/below this range. The previous all-time low over the past 200 years was 1.0520 (daily low @ 1.0438) seen in the 1st quarter of 1985 which was revisited in September 2022 (close 1.0696 27 Sep 2022).
This past week the Pound closed the week above its short term trend daily 50 +200 day moving averages and above the intermediate term trend 20 + 65 week moving averages. For the month of May it has gained +0.19% and closed the month of April above its long term 10 month moving average (which technically switches the long term bullish until months end).
(Short Term Bullish)
(Intermediate Term Bullish)
(Long Term Bullish)
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon respective time period closing price):
Weekly: 130.98 / 137.20
Monthly: 132.64 / 133.30
This past week the Pound closed the week above its short term trend daily 50 +200 day moving averages and above the intermediate term trend 20 + 65 week moving averages. For the month of May it has gained +0.19% and closed the month of April above its long term 10 month moving average (which technically switches the long term bullish until months end).
(Short Term Bullish)
(Intermediate Term Bullish)
(Long Term Bullish)
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon respective time period closing price):
Weekly: 130.98 / 137.20
Monthly: 132.64 / 133.30
Australian Dollar (Bullish Bias)
Australian Dollar Daily Chart
Australian Dollar Weekly Charts
Australian Dollar Monthly Chart
The Australian Dollar gained +0.70% over the past week. It bottomed in Apr/2025 and has been on a steady uptrend to present.
For the month of May the Aussie dollar has gained +0.65%. It closed the week above the short term trend 50 + 200 day moving averages and above the intermediate term trend 20 + 65 week moving averages. It closed the month of April above the long term trend 10 month moving average keeping the long term outlook bullish until months end.
(Short Term Bullish)
(Intermediate Term Bullish)
(Long Term Bullish)
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon respective time period closing price):
Weekly: 71.71 / 73.40
Monthly: 70.17 / 76.59
For the month of May the Aussie dollar has gained +0.65%. It closed the week above the short term trend 50 + 200 day moving averages and above the intermediate term trend 20 + 65 week moving averages. It closed the month of April above the long term trend 10 month moving average keeping the long term outlook bullish until months end.
(Short Term Bullish)
(Intermediate Term Bullish)
(Long Term Bullish)
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon respective time period closing price):
Weekly: 71.71 / 73.40
Monthly: 70.17 / 76.59
Canadian Dollar (Bullish Bias)
Canadian Dollar Daily Chart
Canadian Dollar Weekly Chart
Canadian Dollar Monthly Chart
The Canadian dollar lost -0.59% over the past week. Until recently it has been one of the weakest major global currencies but has recovered from 9 year lows in 2025.
The Loonie closed the week above the short term trend 50 + 200 day moving averages and above the intermediate term trend 20 + 65 week moving averages. For the month of May the Loonie has lost -0.64%. It closed the month of April above the long term trend 10 month moving average switching the long term bullish until months end.
(Short Term Bullish)
(Intermediate Term Bullish)
(Long Term Bullish)
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon respective time period closing price)
Weekly: 70.91 / 73.62
Monthly: 72.07 / 75.83
The Loonie closed the week above the short term trend 50 + 200 day moving averages and above the intermediate term trend 20 + 65 week moving averages. For the month of May the Loonie has lost -0.64%. It closed the month of April above the long term trend 10 month moving average switching the long term bullish until months end.
(Short Term Bullish)
(Intermediate Term Bullish)
(Long Term Bullish)
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon respective time period closing price)
Weekly: 70.91 / 73.62
Monthly: 72.07 / 75.83
Important Charts to Watch
Commodity Basket Index
Commodities (as measured by the Reuters/Jefferies CRB index; a basket of 19 commodities) bottomed in April, 2020 and peaked in June, 2022.
Over the past month they experienced a multi-year breakout on the back of the US/Israel/Iran war.
Over the past month they experienced a multi-year breakout on the back of the US/Israel/Iran war.
Equity Market Volatility
The Volatility Index (VIX) is a measure of expected price fluctuations of options on the S&P 500 index options over the next 30 days (technically the VIX is quoted in percentage points and represents the expected range of movement in the S&P 500 index over the next year, at a 68% confidence level i.e. one standard deviation of the normal probability curve). For example, if the VIX is 15, this represents an expected annualized change, with a 68% probability, of less than 15% up or down.
In general it can be said there are four VIX volatility regimes:
The VXV uses the same calculation as the VIX but looks forward 3 months. When the VIX is greater than the VXV ($VIX:$VXV ratio > 1.0) the volatility structure is termed to be in "contango". It indicates traders are much more concerned about short term volatility than they are about longer term volatility and when that ratio returns to "normal" (< 0.93) it is typically a good sign market stress is easing (and a good time to add to equity positions).
As of this weeks market close volatility closed below the "VIX Event End Line" area with the VIX below 20. The volatility structure is currently BULLISH for equities.
In general it can be said there are four VIX volatility regimes:
- < 20 is trending bullish for equities
- ≈ 20-25 is choppy bullish for equities
- ≈ 25-30 is choppy bearish for equities
- > 30 is trending bearish for equities
The VXV uses the same calculation as the VIX but looks forward 3 months. When the VIX is greater than the VXV ($VIX:$VXV ratio > 1.0) the volatility structure is termed to be in "contango". It indicates traders are much more concerned about short term volatility than they are about longer term volatility and when that ratio returns to "normal" (< 0.93) it is typically a good sign market stress is easing (and a good time to add to equity positions).
As of this weeks market close volatility closed below the "VIX Event End Line" area with the VIX below 20. The volatility structure is currently BULLISH for equities.
Global Banks
An important measure of economic stability is the performance of bank stocks. Below is a chart of the KBE (US Bank ETF) and KRE (US Regional Bank ETF). Both remain near recent highs indicating very little financial stress in the US.
Similarly, European financial stocks (represented below using the iShares MSCI European Financials ETF) continue to advance from their Oct/2022 lows and currently exhibit very little European financial stress.
Chinese Equities
The Shanghai Composite index was higher over the past week and closed above important support @ 3558-3703. It has remained rangebound since 2015 before the most recent breakout.
Chinese growth remains key to both Emerging market performance as well as an indication of Developed markets demand. From its peak in mid-2015, the Shanghai index lost more than -50% to its recent lows. Significant strength returning to China further indicates that world economic growth has positively turned the corner.
Chinese growth remains key to both Emerging market performance as well as an indication of Developed markets demand. From its peak in mid-2015, the Shanghai index lost more than -50% to its recent lows. Significant strength returning to China further indicates that world economic growth has positively turned the corner.
PRECIOUS METALS
Precious metals (and their respective producers) are an area we recommend all investors consider having a small position within. Precious metals perform well during times when real (inflation adjusted) interest rates are falling and/or when the USD is weak. The following charts can be utilized to determine when the risk/reward is favorable.
Below is a ratio price chart of gold stocks (HUI; the "Gold Bugs" Index) to gold bullion going back to 1996 when the Gold Bugs Index first came into existence. As can be seen, whenever the HUI:GOLD ratio dips to below approximately 0.14 (the GREEN zone on the chart) has been a low-risk opportunity to acquire gold stocks.
Gold stocks have recently broken out of their "low-risk vs. high-reward" range and are approaching the crucial 0.20 range which has capped gold stocks since 2014. Historically purchases of gold equities when within the green-zone have been a very good long term buy-and-hold opportunities.
Gold stocks have recently broken out of their "low-risk vs. high-reward" range and are approaching the crucial 0.20 range which has capped gold stocks since 2014. Historically purchases of gold equities when within the green-zone have been a very good long term buy-and-hold opportunities.
Silver (chart below) broke out of the price ratio relative to the price of gold (GREEN zone on the chart) which has historically been a low risk entry point over the past 40 years.
Silver recently reached its sell zone on a relative basis to gold.
To put the valuation into a longer term perspective, below is a chart of the Gold/Silver ratio (the opposite ratio to Silver/Gold) going back to 1687. Clearly it can be seen a gold:silver ratio > 80 has historically been an outlier over the past 100+ years (and greater than 100 is historic):
The current Gold:Silver ratio has now broken below the 65 area which has been the limit to silver advances over the past 10 years. The next silver target sell area is the 45 ratio which has historically been a very reliable sell zone.
EVEN MORE BULLISH is the price of Platinum (chart below) which has exceeded the "buy zone" last seen in 1982! Platinum is 15-20 times rarer than gold and has rarely in history traded at a price below the price of gold (only 9.7% of the time going back to 1971). It remains the cheapest it has been GOING BACK TO AUGUST 1971 WHEN THE U.S. LEFT THE GOLD STANDARD on a relative basis:
- The current Platinum:Gold ratio remains below 0.85 (red line on the chart below).
- A Platinum/Gold ratio < 0.85 has only occurred 4.7% of the time back to 1971.
- Prior to recent lows, the lowest Platinum:Gold ratio since August 1971 (when the USD was removed from the gold standard) was hit on 20 Sept 1982 when it hit a ratio low of 0.689 (Platinum $300.40/Gold $436.00).
- If Platinum were to return to its most common ratio relative to Gold (1.0x-1.25x which has been common 35% of the time) it would imply a price rise of approximately 50-90% from recent levels.
Platinum has now broken out and is rapidly trying to regain its historic price level greater than the price of gold.
The following charts and commentary (in italics; bold print is our emphasis) are sourced from Kitco from commentary sourced in Feb 2017 when the ratio was near 0.85 (Platinum has become even cheaper on a relative basis since the data was published):
Platinum to gold ratios show wide variance over the 46 year period ranging from highs above 2.5 before and soon after Nixon began taking the United States off the gold standard to periodic lows below 1.0:
Platinum to gold ratios show wide variance over the 46 year period ranging from highs above 2.5 before and soon after Nixon began taking the United States off the gold standard to periodic lows below 1.0:
Our data set covers 553 months beginning in January 1971. The distribution of ratios in both tabular and chart format follows:
Platinum/Gold Ratio: % of Months
Platinum/Gold Ratio: % of Months
- < 0.85: 4.7%
- .85-1.01: 5.0%
- 1.0-1.25: 34.7%
- 1.25-1.5: 19.3%
- 1.5-2.0: 15.4%
- 2.0-2.5: 8.9%
- > 2.5: 2.0%
From our data set and the distributions of monthly average platinum-gold ratios from January 1971 thru January 2017, I glean the following:
From a compendium of sources, the average crustal abundance of both metals is around 4 ppb. Based solely on this fact, platinum and gold should trade at about the same price.
And indeed, our compilation shows that for nearly 50% of the time since gold was decoupled from the world’s reserve currency and allowed to trade freely on exchanges, the price ratio has ranged from 0.85 to 1.25. That said, since January 1971, the average price of platinum has been $637/oz and gold has been $518/oz for an overall ratio of 1.23:1. Clearly there are other factors other than the nearly equal crustal abundances that account for this historic price relationship.
A variety of supply and demand factors cause platinum to trade at a premium to gold:
Fluctuations in the relative prices of platinum and gold are largely driven by:
Platinum functions both as a precious and industrial metal. It is usually tied to the price of gold in both short- and long-term trading patterns. In times of financial distress and economic turmoil, platinum tends to behave more like gold with widespread hoarding.
The platinum-gold ratio can be used to ascertain whether one metal is over- or undervalued with respect to the other. The current monthly average ratio below 0.85 is unusual and indicates that platinum is severely undervalued with respect to gold *
* The ratio recently hit 0.55 and remains near a record low.
- A ratio of less than 0.75 is a single outlier that occurred once during the second half of 1982 when overall ratios averaged 0.81.
- Ratios <0.85 are quite unusual at 4.7%. They occurred for two months in the first quarter of 1975, the aforementioned six months in 1982, in June-July of 1985, and for an ongoing run of 16 months that commenced in October 2015.
- Ratios from 0.85 to 1.0 constitute 15.0% of the record.
- Pt:Au from 1.0 to 1.25 is the most common range and comprises 34.7% of ratios since 1971.
- The ratios between 1.25 and 1.5 occur 19.3% of the time.
- Ratios from 1.5 to 2.0 make up 15.4% of the record.
- The 2.0-2.5 interval covers 8.9% of the months in our compendium.
- The 11 monthly outliers at >2.5 comprise 2.0% of the total record and have not occurred since 1971.
From a compendium of sources, the average crustal abundance of both metals is around 4 ppb. Based solely on this fact, platinum and gold should trade at about the same price.
And indeed, our compilation shows that for nearly 50% of the time since gold was decoupled from the world’s reserve currency and allowed to trade freely on exchanges, the price ratio has ranged from 0.85 to 1.25. That said, since January 1971, the average price of platinum has been $637/oz and gold has been $518/oz for an overall ratio of 1.23:1. Clearly there are other factors other than the nearly equal crustal abundances that account for this historic price relationship.
A variety of supply and demand factors cause platinum to trade at a premium to gold:
- Platinum is a much smaller market. Cumulative world production of platinum is estimated to be about 5% of gold (9400 tonnes versus 182,000 tonnes). From 1994-2014, 3700 tonnes of platinum were mined versus 52,600 tonnes of gold or about 7% (source: USGS).
- Platinum is largely an industrial metal. Catalytic converters, electronics, petroleum and chemical catalysts, medical technologies, and many minor uses constitute over 60% of its annual demand. Around 30% is used in jewelry and 10% for investment demand. Also, 30% of the annual platinum supply now comes from recycling, mostly from catalytic converters. Some demand is consumed and lost to the marketplace.
- Gold is overwhelmingly a precious metal; 90% is used in jewelry and investments and only 10% in industrial applications. An estimated 98% of all the gold ever mined in the world remains available and held in jewelry, by central banks, in private hoards, and as fabricated products (source: USGS).
- About 70% of yearly platinum mine supply comes from South Africa, a geopolitically risky country. Much new platinum is a by-product of nickel-copper mining and smelting; therefore, annual platinum production is dependent on the supply-demand fundamentals and prices of these primary metals.
Fluctuations in the relative prices of platinum and gold are largely driven by:
- the overall growth and health of the world’s economy and in the case of platinum, the automotive industry;
- labor, power, currency, and political issues in South Africa that cause major perturbations in the platinum supply;
- safe haven hoarding of gold and to a much lesser extent, platinum, in times of economic uncertainty and major geopolitical events; speculators moving in and out of paper markets of both metals (bullion exchanges, ETFs, and derivatives) and to a lesser extent, central bank trading of physical gold.
Platinum functions both as a precious and industrial metal. It is usually tied to the price of gold in both short- and long-term trading patterns. In times of financial distress and economic turmoil, platinum tends to behave more like gold with widespread hoarding.
The platinum-gold ratio can be used to ascertain whether one metal is over- or undervalued with respect to the other. The current monthly average ratio below 0.85 is unusual and indicates that platinum is severely undervalued with respect to gold *
* The ratio recently hit 0.55 and remains near a record low.
U.S. Equity Market Valuation
Crestmont Price/Earnings Ratio
(Source: Crestmont Research)
(Source: Crestmont Research)
The Crestmont P/E ratio is a valuation metric used to assess the stock market's price-to-earnings ratio with a focus on long-term, inflation-adjusted earnings. It was developed by Crestmont Research and is designed to provide a more stable and consistent measure of market valuation compared to traditional P/E ratios.
What It Measures:
We illustrate the recent market overvaluation via 3 charts produced by Crestmont Research. In the following graphs note the following:
What It Measures:
- Price-to-Earnings Ratio: Like the standard P/E ratio, it compares the market's price (e.g., the level of a stock index like the S&P 500) to its earnings per share (EPS).
- Cyclically Adjusted Earnings: Instead of using a single year's earnings, the Crestmont P/E uses a 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings (similar to the CAPE ratio by Robert Shiller). This smooths out short-term fluctuations in earnings due to economic cycles.
- Inflation Adjustment: Earnings are adjusted for inflation to ensure consistency over time, accounting for changes in purchasing power.
- Long-Term Perspective: By focusing on a decade of earnings, it aims to reduce the impact of temporary economic booms or busts, providing a clearer view of whether the market is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly priced.
We illustrate the recent market overvaluation via 3 charts produced by Crestmont Research. In the following graphs note the following:
- the Crestmont Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio remains at the most expensive market valuation in U.S. stock market history (> 3 standard deviations about its geometric mean).
- when compared to inflation the current Crestmont P/E has now exceeded the upper extreme portion of the bubble zone defining the 1998-2000 bubble peak as shown on the 2nd chart.
- pay particular attention to chart #2 where it can be seen high equity valuations are historically supported by inflation in the 0-3% range. Inflation remains outside this corridor so markets remain vulnerable.
U.S. (NYSE) Margin Debt
(Source: Advisor Perspectives)
We continue to monitor with interest the current margin debt on US markets. For those who are unfamiliar, margin debt is the amount of "loans" taken out by market speculators to leverage up their equity positions. During normal bull markets margin debt will increase as the market continues to climb. This increased margin debt amplifies equity market prices. However, at some point speculators become nervous and begin to reduce their margin positions. This reduction in margin is like letting the air out of a balloon and deflates equity asset prices.
As can be seen on the below graphic, both the 2000 and 2007 market tops were signaled in advance by tops in margin debt (margin debt not inflation adjusted on this chart):
As can be seen on the below graphic, both the 2000 and 2007 market tops were signaled in advance by tops in margin debt (margin debt not inflation adjusted on this chart):
The following chart (source: D. Short) shows US equity margin debt adjusted for inflation. As can be seen, in both 2000 and 2007 inflation-adjusted margin debt peaked and then began to decline leading to the tops in the S&P 500 index. As such, margin debt rollovers acts as a good lead indicator of possible future market weakness.
A year-over-year contraction in margin debt tends to be negative for stocks as liquidity is removed from equity markets. Below is the latest YoY rate of change in margin debt (source: Yardini). Note in both the 2000 and 2007 bear markets margin debt bottomed below -40% and the recent bottoming and the return to growth in margin debt is encouraging.
U.S. Equity market Valuation Models
(Source: D. Short)
Below is a graph representing 4 different long-term valuation measures plotted back to 1900 (123 years):
As of 01 May 2026 the average of these 4 measures places the U.S. stock market (S&P 500 index) as being 172% above its long term geometric mean. This remains the highest valuation in the history of the stock market going back to 1900 (greater than 3 standard deviations above the geometric mean).
- The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio
- The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
- The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
- The relationship of the S&P Composite price to a regression trendline
As of 01 May 2026 the average of these 4 measures places the U.S. stock market (S&P 500 index) as being 172% above its long term geometric mean. This remains the highest valuation in the history of the stock market going back to 1900 (greater than 3 standard deviations above the geometric mean).
Another popular valuation metric is know as the "Buffett-Indicator". In an interview with Fortune magazine back in 2001 Warren Buffett remarked "it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment."
The indicator measures the price of Corporate Equities (Mkt Cap) to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a ratio going back to 1950. As can be seen below, the ratio of equity prices relative to last reported GDP has now moved below its recent peak and is currently in the "Strongly Overvalued" zone (> 64.5% above the detrended regression line).
7-Year Asset Class Real Return Forecast
(Source: GMO LLC)
Each month GMO (Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co.) publishes a forward forecast for expected annual real rates of return (i.e. inflation adjusted) for a number of different asset classes with a 7 year forward outlook. They have historically had a very good track record (0.97 correlation) of estimating forward 7 year asset class returns based primarily upon current valuations combined with mean reversion. Charts are published following analysis of the previous months data.
We have followed GMO's methodology with interest for many years. In our experience we have found them to be conservative over the shorter term with a tenancy to make calls too early. HOWEVER, similar to Dr. John Hussman of Hussman Funds, they also tend to be right over the longer term. As such, we use their outlook as part of the valuation model within the ECAM 5 Factor model.
Above is their current forecast of expected real returns (after inflation) for the next 7 years broken down by asset class. It is clear based upon current market valuations GMO forecasts well below average annual investment returns in all asset classes with a 7 year forward time horizon (the historical real return of U.S. equities is +6.5% per year). This is important for those who may be soon retiring and expecting "average" returns on their equity and bond investments over the next 7 years. Current high market valuations make it a certainty forward returns over the next 7-10 years will be well below historical averages.
We have followed GMO's methodology with interest for many years. In our experience we have found them to be conservative over the shorter term with a tenancy to make calls too early. HOWEVER, similar to Dr. John Hussman of Hussman Funds, they also tend to be right over the longer term. As such, we use their outlook as part of the valuation model within the ECAM 5 Factor model.
Above is their current forecast of expected real returns (after inflation) for the next 7 years broken down by asset class. It is clear based upon current market valuations GMO forecasts well below average annual investment returns in all asset classes with a 7 year forward time horizon (the historical real return of U.S. equities is +6.5% per year). This is important for those who may be soon retiring and expecting "average" returns on their equity and bond investments over the next 7 years. Current high market valuations make it a certainty forward returns over the next 7-10 years will be well below historical averages.
Global Asset Class 10-year Expected Nominal Return Forecast
(data as of 30 April, 2026)
(Source: Research Affiliates)
(data as of 30 April, 2026)
(Source: Research Affiliates)
Below is the projected 10 year nominal (non-inflation adjusted) returns for the majority of global asset classes.
Data continues to point to developed market Small, developed Large Caps ex-US, Europe and Emerging market equities as providing the greatest equity returns over the next 10 years.
Data continues to point to developed market Small, developed Large Caps ex-US, Europe and Emerging market equities as providing the greatest equity returns over the next 10 years.
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Cycle Commentary
Below is a 20 year chart of the seasonal monthly performance of the Dow Jones Global Index. The number at the top of the column is the percentage of time the month had a positive return and at the bottom is the average percentage gain/loss for the month.
Dow Jones Global Index Market ($DJW)
As can be seen, over the past 20 years (2006-2025) the period October-April yearly offers the highest potential global equity market returns (cumulative +6.4% average return) while the period May-September offers little in total return relative to risk (0.0% cumulative average return). The month of April remains the strongest month of the calendar year with an 84% success rate and an average return of +2.3% .
S&P 500 Seasonality (historical 20 year look-back annual seasonality)
The S&P 500 Index 20 year seasonal tendency:
- flat for Jan
- in a rising trend for the first 2 weeks of Feb
- falls into an early March low
- a rising trend into a September peak
- pulls back to an early October low
- rises into year-end
Ned Davis Research 2026 Composite Model
The Ned Davis Research S&P 500 Cycle Composite Model is a predictive graphic that blends historical patterns:
It averages daily S&P 500 data over many decades to project a "typical" path for the index in a given year — in this case, a forecast for 2026 (a mid-term election year).
Recent analyses (as of late 2025) describe the 2026 Cycle Composite as showing:
- The 1-year seasonal cycle
- The 4-year Presidential election cycle
- The 10-year decennial cycle
It averages daily S&P 500 data over many decades to project a "typical" path for the index in a given year — in this case, a forecast for 2026 (a mid-term election year).
Recent analyses (as of late 2025) describe the 2026 Cycle Composite as showing:
- A strong start to the year with a rally into mid-April
- Potential weakness or a pullback in the summer/early fall (around mid-term election volatility)
- A low point in October
- A strong recovery into a positive year-end finish
The levels are not as important as the general trends/turning points as indicated by the Composite model.
U.S. 4-Year Presidential Election Cycle
* 2026 is Year-2 ("2nd Presidential Year") of the 4-year cycle
Presidential Cycle S&P 500 returns (inc. dividends):
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1988-Year 4: +12.40%
1989-Year1: +27.25% 1990-Year 2: -6.56% 1991-Year 3: +26.31% 1992-Year 4: +4.46% 1993-Year 1: +7.06% 1994-Year 2: -1.54% 1995-Year 3: +34.11% 1996-Year 4: +20.26% 1997-Year 1: +31.01% 1998-Year 2: +26.67% 1999-Year 3: +19.53% 2000-Year 4: -10.14% |
2001-Year 1: -13.04%
2002-Year 2: -23.37% 2003-Year 3: +26.38% 2004-Year 4: +8.99% 2005-Year 1: +3.00% 2006-Year 2: +13.62% 2007-Year 3: +3.53% 2008-Year 4: -38.49% 2009-Year 1: +23.45% 2010-Year 2: +12.78% 2011-Year 3: +0.00% 2012-Year 4: +13.41% 2013-Year 1: +29.60% |
2014-Year 2: +11.39%
2015-Year 3: -0.73% 2016-Year 4: +11.96% 2017-Year 1: +21.83% 2018-Year 2: -4.38% 2019-Year 3: +31.49% 2020-Year 4: +16.26% 2021-Year 1: +26.89% 2022-Year 2: -19.44% 2023-Year 3: +24.23% 2024-Year 4: +23.31% 2025-Year 1: 16.39% 2026-Year 2: TBA |
U.S. S&P 500 Index Bear Markets
(source: Ben Carlson, CFA)
(source: Ben Carlson, CFA)
Recessionary Bear Markets (1928-2022):
Non-Recessionary Bear Markets (1928-2022):
Recessionary vs Non-Recessionary Bear Market Returns (1928-2022):
