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"Slow and Steady wins the race"
The Hare and the Tortoise
Aesop (Greek slave & fable author 620 BC - 560 BC)
"Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball"
Carl Swenlin (Technical Analyst)
"Investing is the intersection of economics and psychology"
Seth Klarman (Hedge fund Manager, Baupost Group)
The Hare and the Tortoise
Aesop (Greek slave & fable author 620 BC - 560 BC)
"Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball"
Carl Swenlin (Technical Analyst)
"Investing is the intersection of economics and psychology"
Seth Klarman (Hedge fund Manager, Baupost Group)
Market Overview
- Global equities had another strong week with a Dow Jones Global Index return of +0.77% (5 consecutive weeks of gains). Significantly, both the daily and weekly closing prices remain above their respective trading ranges they have been stuck within for the past 1 1/2 years and are now challenging all time highs.
- Global bonds had negative returns over the past week in both U.S. and International ex-U.S. bonds. Bonds have continued to perform very well in this slowing global macro environment but have now reached a critical point where it may be appropriate to take some profits on the past year of strong returns (bonds are substantially over-valued). Next week will be pivotal for bonds.
- All equity regions have experienced positive returns from the 24 Dec 2018 bottom. U.S. equities continue to lead with Emerging markets regions lagging. This is likely a function of the current tariff wars and any resolution would be very positive for ex-U.S. regions.
- Global economic growth remains near 3 year lows with stagnant movement in global services offsetting contraction in global manufacturing (the latest World Bank monthly report is in the Economics section below where they reconfirm global growth remains at a critical juncture). The ongoing trade war between the U.S. and its major trading partners continues to have an effect upon global economic growth.
- Our array of global macroeconomic indicators continues to show the 1st signs of significant weakness since 2015. It would appear global Central Banks are seeing the same as a coordinated rate cutting cycle is beginning to appear globally. Central Banks have a patchy track record of acting with appropriate timing and magnitude so we are now entering a potentially critical period as we near the end of the growth cycle.
- Per the above, the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) announced their 1st rate cut in 10 years at their 31 July meeting and have now cut rates three times from their peak. The FED has a poor history of timing rate cuts with declining economic fundamentals so we have now entered a critical period for equities. Any signs of deterioration in corporate profits or consumer confidence (70% of US GDP is consumption) will be the 1st sign the bull market may be over.
DOW JONES GLOBAL INDEX (DAILY CLOSE)
DOW JONES GLOBAL INDEX (WEEKLY CLOSE)
Weekly Global Macro Review
Global equities had another good week with a benchmark global equity return (the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF) of +0.88%. Asia Pacific equities were the top performing equity region again this week (+0.97%) with European equities under-performing (+0.34%).
U.S. Equities
The Dow Jones Industrial Average joined the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes in record territory, as optimism grew about a “phase one” trade deal between the U.S. and China. A sharp increase in longer-term bond yields and the continued release of third-quarter corporate earnings reports also drove markets. On a sector basis, financials outperformed as rising long-term interest rates favored banks’ lending margins. Increasing bond yields weighed heavily on real estate and utilities shares, however, as their typically above-average dividends became less appealing in comparison.
The week’s economic data offered some conflicting signals. Weekly jobless claims fell more than expected, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary gauge of consumer sentiment in November rose a bit. On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management reported that its gauge of U.S. service sector activity rose sharply in October. In contrast, IHS Markit’s rival service sector index declined and reached its lowest level since early 2016, while its composite index stood just barely in expansion territory.
US Bonds
Recession worries also receded notably in the bond market. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note surged for the second week in a row, bringing it to its highest level since the end of July. (Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.) It would appear that hopes for a trade deal and technical factors appeared to be behind the surge in yields.
While weighing on Treasury bond prices, trade optimism supported the investment-grade corporate bond market, which saw a contraction in credit spreads, or the extra yield offered over similar-maturity Treasuries—an inverse measure of the sector’s relative appeal. Sentiment in the high yield market also benefited, and the heavily represented energy sector got a further boost from higher oil and natural gas prices following predictions for a cold winter in much of the country. However, somewhat mixed corporate earnings reports later sparked volatility in the sector.
Europe
Equity markets in Europe were mostly higher, buoyed by a rally on Wall Street, optimism about a U.S.-China trade deal, and generally solid corporate earnings reports. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index rose for the fifth week in a row, gaining about 1.4%. France's CAC40 jumped 2.2% with the German DAX up 2.1%, Spain's IBEX 35 equities index up 0.7% and Italy's FTSE MIB index surged 2.6%.
As earnings season winds down, 80% of the STOXX 600 have reported 3rd quarter numbers and 50% of companies have surpassed consensus estimates on both the topline and bottom line (the highest level in the last six quarters). The health care and basic materials sectors have beaten the most on earnings per share so far, while utilities and consumer goods have trailed.
In economic news, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that the eurozone is likely to grow less than expected in 2019 and that the recession in the manufacturing sector could spill into the services sector. The IMF forecast that the eurozone would grow by 1.2%, down from its April estimate of 1.3%. That comes after a 1.96% expansion in 2018. The IMF largely attributed the slowdown to slow growth in Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, and stagnation in Italy, the region’s third-largest economy. The IMF also revised lower its growth forecast for Germany to 0.5%. To alleviate the slowing, the IMF has called on eurozone governments to respond with fiscal measures.
In Germany, exports rose a higher-than-expected 1.5% in September after adjusting for seasonal and calendar effects, according to the Federal Statistics Office. Factory orders moved 1.3% higher compared with the previous month, after falling for two months.
UK
UK’s FTSE 100 Index gained about 0.8% on the week. The UK All Sector Output Index was released during the week (a weighted average of the UK Manufacturing Output Index, the UK Total Construction Activity Index and the UK Services Business Activity Index) and showed continued weakness. The Index remained below 50.0 for the third month running in October, the longest negative sequence for ten-and-a-half years and signaling a further contraction in total private sector output. That said, the Index rose to 49.5, from 48.8 in September, indicating a slower, marginal rate of contraction.
All three sectors continued to register lower intakes of new business in October, the first successive broad-based decline since March-April 2009. Total new work fell for the third month running, and at one of the fastest rates for over a decade.
Japan
Japanese markets were closed on Monday for the Culture Day holiday. In the holiday-shortened trading week, the Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 2.4%, while the broader measures of the Japanese market, the large-cap TOPIX Index and the TOPIX Small Index, also advanced but slightly lagged the Nikkei 225.
Equities advanced amid signs of improving U.S.-China trade relations and hopes that their trade representatives would soon finalize the phase one partial trade deal. While there is growing optimism that a U.S.-China trade deal and this year’s interest rate cuts from various global central banks could have a favorable impact on global growth next year, economic data in Japan remain discouraging. As reported by the Financial Times, the Japanese services sector—as measured by the Jibun Bank Japan Services Purchasing Managers’ Index—contracted in October for the first time in about three years. One of the main factors behind the contraction was the October 1 increase in the consumption tax, from 8% to 10%. On Thursday, the Reuters Tankan survey of Japanese manufacturers in November showed that sentiment in the sector was at its lowest level in more than six years.
China
Chinese stocks advanced for the week, as hopes rose for a comprehensive U.S.-China trade agreement following news that both sides agreed to roll back tariffs on each other’s goods as part of a so-called phase one trade deal. For the week, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index edged up 0.2%, and the large-cap CSI 300 Index, which tracks blue chips listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, rose 0.5%. Both indexes fell Friday, however, as Beijing and Washington sent mixed messages about the likelihood of an imminent breakthrough and reports surfaced of fierce internal opposition within the White House to any tariff rollback. Nevertheless, news of a plan to remove tariffs in stages boosted sentiment, as investors viewed it as a sign of de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade war that is increasingly dragging on the global economy.
Buying ahead of a widely expected announcement from MSCI to boost the weighting of mainland Chinese stocks in its influential Emerging Markets Index also supported Chinese stocks. On Thursday, MSCI said that A shares—yuan-denominated shares of companies that trade on China’s domestic exchanges—would rise to a weight of 4.1% in its widely used Emerging Markets Index from a current 2.6% weight. The increase marked the third step of a previously announced plan by MSCI to increase the weighting of Chinese A shares in its various emerging markets indexes and was among several changes announced by the index compiler as part of its November semiannual review.
U.S. Equities
The Dow Jones Industrial Average joined the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes in record territory, as optimism grew about a “phase one” trade deal between the U.S. and China. A sharp increase in longer-term bond yields and the continued release of third-quarter corporate earnings reports also drove markets. On a sector basis, financials outperformed as rising long-term interest rates favored banks’ lending margins. Increasing bond yields weighed heavily on real estate and utilities shares, however, as their typically above-average dividends became less appealing in comparison.
The week’s economic data offered some conflicting signals. Weekly jobless claims fell more than expected, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary gauge of consumer sentiment in November rose a bit. On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management reported that its gauge of U.S. service sector activity rose sharply in October. In contrast, IHS Markit’s rival service sector index declined and reached its lowest level since early 2016, while its composite index stood just barely in expansion territory.
US Bonds
Recession worries also receded notably in the bond market. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note surged for the second week in a row, bringing it to its highest level since the end of July. (Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.) It would appear that hopes for a trade deal and technical factors appeared to be behind the surge in yields.
While weighing on Treasury bond prices, trade optimism supported the investment-grade corporate bond market, which saw a contraction in credit spreads, or the extra yield offered over similar-maturity Treasuries—an inverse measure of the sector’s relative appeal. Sentiment in the high yield market also benefited, and the heavily represented energy sector got a further boost from higher oil and natural gas prices following predictions for a cold winter in much of the country. However, somewhat mixed corporate earnings reports later sparked volatility in the sector.
Europe
Equity markets in Europe were mostly higher, buoyed by a rally on Wall Street, optimism about a U.S.-China trade deal, and generally solid corporate earnings reports. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index rose for the fifth week in a row, gaining about 1.4%. France's CAC40 jumped 2.2% with the German DAX up 2.1%, Spain's IBEX 35 equities index up 0.7% and Italy's FTSE MIB index surged 2.6%.
As earnings season winds down, 80% of the STOXX 600 have reported 3rd quarter numbers and 50% of companies have surpassed consensus estimates on both the topline and bottom line (the highest level in the last six quarters). The health care and basic materials sectors have beaten the most on earnings per share so far, while utilities and consumer goods have trailed.
In economic news, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that the eurozone is likely to grow less than expected in 2019 and that the recession in the manufacturing sector could spill into the services sector. The IMF forecast that the eurozone would grow by 1.2%, down from its April estimate of 1.3%. That comes after a 1.96% expansion in 2018. The IMF largely attributed the slowdown to slow growth in Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, and stagnation in Italy, the region’s third-largest economy. The IMF also revised lower its growth forecast for Germany to 0.5%. To alleviate the slowing, the IMF has called on eurozone governments to respond with fiscal measures.
In Germany, exports rose a higher-than-expected 1.5% in September after adjusting for seasonal and calendar effects, according to the Federal Statistics Office. Factory orders moved 1.3% higher compared with the previous month, after falling for two months.
UK
UK’s FTSE 100 Index gained about 0.8% on the week. The UK All Sector Output Index was released during the week (a weighted average of the UK Manufacturing Output Index, the UK Total Construction Activity Index and the UK Services Business Activity Index) and showed continued weakness. The Index remained below 50.0 for the third month running in October, the longest negative sequence for ten-and-a-half years and signaling a further contraction in total private sector output. That said, the Index rose to 49.5, from 48.8 in September, indicating a slower, marginal rate of contraction.
All three sectors continued to register lower intakes of new business in October, the first successive broad-based decline since March-April 2009. Total new work fell for the third month running, and at one of the fastest rates for over a decade.
Japan
Japanese markets were closed on Monday for the Culture Day holiday. In the holiday-shortened trading week, the Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 2.4%, while the broader measures of the Japanese market, the large-cap TOPIX Index and the TOPIX Small Index, also advanced but slightly lagged the Nikkei 225.
Equities advanced amid signs of improving U.S.-China trade relations and hopes that their trade representatives would soon finalize the phase one partial trade deal. While there is growing optimism that a U.S.-China trade deal and this year’s interest rate cuts from various global central banks could have a favorable impact on global growth next year, economic data in Japan remain discouraging. As reported by the Financial Times, the Japanese services sector—as measured by the Jibun Bank Japan Services Purchasing Managers’ Index—contracted in October for the first time in about three years. One of the main factors behind the contraction was the October 1 increase in the consumption tax, from 8% to 10%. On Thursday, the Reuters Tankan survey of Japanese manufacturers in November showed that sentiment in the sector was at its lowest level in more than six years.
China
Chinese stocks advanced for the week, as hopes rose for a comprehensive U.S.-China trade agreement following news that both sides agreed to roll back tariffs on each other’s goods as part of a so-called phase one trade deal. For the week, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index edged up 0.2%, and the large-cap CSI 300 Index, which tracks blue chips listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, rose 0.5%. Both indexes fell Friday, however, as Beijing and Washington sent mixed messages about the likelihood of an imminent breakthrough and reports surfaced of fierce internal opposition within the White House to any tariff rollback. Nevertheless, news of a plan to remove tariffs in stages boosted sentiment, as investors viewed it as a sign of de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade war that is increasingly dragging on the global economy.
Buying ahead of a widely expected announcement from MSCI to boost the weighting of mainland Chinese stocks in its influential Emerging Markets Index also supported Chinese stocks. On Thursday, MSCI said that A shares—yuan-denominated shares of companies that trade on China’s domestic exchanges—would rise to a weight of 4.1% in its widely used Emerging Markets Index from a current 2.6% weight. The increase marked the third step of a previously announced plan by MSCI to increase the weighting of Chinese A shares in its various emerging markets indexes and was among several changes announced by the index compiler as part of its November semiannual review.
Weekly Significant Macro Events
Trade Optimism (or not)?
November 7 – Reuters (Yawen Chen and Jeff Mason): “China and the United States have agreed to roll back tariffs on each others’ goods as part of the first phase of a trade deal, officials from both sides said on Thursday, offering a new sign of progress despite ongoing divisions about the months-long dispute. The Chinese commerce ministry, without laying out a timetable, said the two countries had agreed to cancel the tariffs in phases. A U.S. official… confirmed the planned rollback as part of a ‘phase one’ trade agreement that President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping are aiming to sign before the end of the year.”
November 7 – Financial Times (Sun Yu): “An agreement between the United States and China to roll back existing tariffs as part of a ‘phase one’ trade deal faces fierce internal opposition in the White House and from outside advisers, multiple sources familiar with the talks said. The idea of a tariff rollback was not part of the original October ‘handshake’ deal between Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and U.S. President Donald Trump, the sources said… But there is a divide within the administration over whether rolling back tariffs will give away U.S. leverage in the negotiations… The Chinese Communist Party is trying to ‘re-trade’ the agreement, said Stephen Bannon, former White House adviser. He added that rolling back earlier tariffs ‘goes against the grain’ of the original October agreement. ‘There’s nothing that Trump hates more’ than someone backtracking on a deal, he said.
China Bank Runs
November 7 – Bloomberg: “Signs of stress within China’s legion of small banks are cropping up across the country. On Thursday, Guangdong Nanyue Bank made a rare decision to skip early redemption on its local tier-two bond without giving a reason, sparking fresh concern about its financial strength. Two other banks have faced runs at some branches in recent days… Many other lenders are embarking on efforts to bolster capital. The drumbeat of news is heightening investor concerns about China’s more-than 3,000 small banks, many of which are coping with a mountain of bad loans and a government crackdown on risky funding practices. To prevent panic, authorities are considering a package of measures to shore up any cracks in the world’s largest banking system -- a complex challenge.”
November 7 – New York Times (Alexandra Stevenson and Cao Li): “One bank failed. A second and third were bailed out. Worried depositors of two more banks then rushed to pull out their savings for fear of losing them in a spectacular failure. These stumbles, which have occurred in quick succession since May, would stir fears of a financial meltdown had they happened in the United States. But this is China, where the government is trying to suppress any potential panic while the country’s banking system goes through a painful but much needed cleanup. The latest in China’s series of banking woes came this week when a city in the country’s northeast urged depositors in a local bank to ‘avoid unnecessary losses by withdrawing cash blindly,’… More than a hundred police officers were dispatched to six bank branches… They arrested four people for what people described as ‘publicly spreading rumors on the internet.’”
November 7 – Financial Times (Sun Yu): “A spate of bank runs has highlighted the growing challenges facing China’s financial sector, with local lenders particularly vulnerable due to the slowing economy and a crackdown on shadow banking. This week, police in Yingkou, a city of 2.5m people in the north-eastern province of Liaoning, arrested nine residents for posting ‘inappropriate remarks’ on social media that Yingkou Yanhai Bank, a local lender, was in a ‘deep financial crisis’. The online comments prompted local residents to flock to the bank’s branches to withdraw their savings. ‘Everyone says YYB is running into trouble,’ said a Yingkou resident. ‘There must be an element of truth in it.’ The incident follows a bank run last week in Yichuan, a city in the central province of Henan, in which depositors withdrew their savings after news that the lender’s president was under investigation.”
November 7 – Reuters (Yawen Chen and Jeff Mason): “China and the United States have agreed to roll back tariffs on each others’ goods as part of the first phase of a trade deal, officials from both sides said on Thursday, offering a new sign of progress despite ongoing divisions about the months-long dispute. The Chinese commerce ministry, without laying out a timetable, said the two countries had agreed to cancel the tariffs in phases. A U.S. official… confirmed the planned rollback as part of a ‘phase one’ trade agreement that President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping are aiming to sign before the end of the year.”
November 7 – Financial Times (Sun Yu): “An agreement between the United States and China to roll back existing tariffs as part of a ‘phase one’ trade deal faces fierce internal opposition in the White House and from outside advisers, multiple sources familiar with the talks said. The idea of a tariff rollback was not part of the original October ‘handshake’ deal between Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and U.S. President Donald Trump, the sources said… But there is a divide within the administration over whether rolling back tariffs will give away U.S. leverage in the negotiations… The Chinese Communist Party is trying to ‘re-trade’ the agreement, said Stephen Bannon, former White House adviser. He added that rolling back earlier tariffs ‘goes against the grain’ of the original October agreement. ‘There’s nothing that Trump hates more’ than someone backtracking on a deal, he said.
China Bank Runs
November 7 – Bloomberg: “Signs of stress within China’s legion of small banks are cropping up across the country. On Thursday, Guangdong Nanyue Bank made a rare decision to skip early redemption on its local tier-two bond without giving a reason, sparking fresh concern about its financial strength. Two other banks have faced runs at some branches in recent days… Many other lenders are embarking on efforts to bolster capital. The drumbeat of news is heightening investor concerns about China’s more-than 3,000 small banks, many of which are coping with a mountain of bad loans and a government crackdown on risky funding practices. To prevent panic, authorities are considering a package of measures to shore up any cracks in the world’s largest banking system -- a complex challenge.”
November 7 – New York Times (Alexandra Stevenson and Cao Li): “One bank failed. A second and third were bailed out. Worried depositors of two more banks then rushed to pull out their savings for fear of losing them in a spectacular failure. These stumbles, which have occurred in quick succession since May, would stir fears of a financial meltdown had they happened in the United States. But this is China, where the government is trying to suppress any potential panic while the country’s banking system goes through a painful but much needed cleanup. The latest in China’s series of banking woes came this week when a city in the country’s northeast urged depositors in a local bank to ‘avoid unnecessary losses by withdrawing cash blindly,’… More than a hundred police officers were dispatched to six bank branches… They arrested four people for what people described as ‘publicly spreading rumors on the internet.’”
November 7 – Financial Times (Sun Yu): “A spate of bank runs has highlighted the growing challenges facing China’s financial sector, with local lenders particularly vulnerable due to the slowing economy and a crackdown on shadow banking. This week, police in Yingkou, a city of 2.5m people in the north-eastern province of Liaoning, arrested nine residents for posting ‘inappropriate remarks’ on social media that Yingkou Yanhai Bank, a local lender, was in a ‘deep financial crisis’. The online comments prompted local residents to flock to the bank’s branches to withdraw their savings. ‘Everyone says YYB is running into trouble,’ said a Yingkou resident. ‘There must be an element of truth in it.’ The incident follows a bank run last week in Yichuan, a city in the central province of Henan, in which depositors withdrew their savings after news that the lender’s president was under investigation.”
Weekly Market Monitor
U.S. Indices
Dow +1.2% to 27,681. S&P 500 +0.9% to 3,093. Nasdaq +1.1% to 8,475. Russell 2000 +0.6% to 1,599. CBOE Volatility Index -1.9% to 12.07.
S&P 500 Sectors
Consumer Staples -0.6%. Utilities -3.4%. Financials +2.4%. Telecom +0.8%. Healthcare -0.5%. Industrials +1.7%. Information Technology +1.1%. Materials +1.6%. Energy +2.8%. Consumer Discretionary -0.3%.
World Indices
London +0.8% to 7,359. France +2.2% to 5,890. Germany +2.1% to 13,229. Japan +2.4% to 23,392. China +0.2% to 2,964. Hong Kong +2.% to 27,651. India +0.4% to 40,324.
Commodities and Bonds
Crude Oil WTI +2.2% to $57.44/bbl. Gold -3.4% to $1,459.6/oz. Natural Gas +2.8% to 2.79. Ten-Year Treasury Yield -1.4% to 128.27.
Forex and Cryptos
EUR/USD -1.33%. USD/JPY +1.01%. GBP/USD -1.26%. Bitcoin -5.5%. Litecoin +3.5%. Ethereum -0.1%. Ripple -5.7%. Bitcoin-Cash flat.
Dow +1.2% to 27,681. S&P 500 +0.9% to 3,093. Nasdaq +1.1% to 8,475. Russell 2000 +0.6% to 1,599. CBOE Volatility Index -1.9% to 12.07.
S&P 500 Sectors
Consumer Staples -0.6%. Utilities -3.4%. Financials +2.4%. Telecom +0.8%. Healthcare -0.5%. Industrials +1.7%. Information Technology +1.1%. Materials +1.6%. Energy +2.8%. Consumer Discretionary -0.3%.
World Indices
London +0.8% to 7,359. France +2.2% to 5,890. Germany +2.1% to 13,229. Japan +2.4% to 23,392. China +0.2% to 2,964. Hong Kong +2.% to 27,651. India +0.4% to 40,324.
Commodities and Bonds
Crude Oil WTI +2.2% to $57.44/bbl. Gold -3.4% to $1,459.6/oz. Natural Gas +2.8% to 2.79. Ten-Year Treasury Yield -1.4% to 128.27.
Forex and Cryptos
EUR/USD -1.33%. USD/JPY +1.01%. GBP/USD -1.26%. Bitcoin -5.5%. Litecoin +3.5%. Ethereum -0.1%. Ripple -5.7%. Bitcoin-Cash flat.
WEEKLY ASSET CLASS MONITOR
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Asset Class
|
Region
|
ETF Ticker
|
Weekly
Return |
Year-to-Date
Return |
|
Equities
|
World
U.S. Europe Asia Pacific Emerging Market |
VT
VTI VGK VPL VWO |
+0.88%
+0.85% +0.34% +0.97% +0.82% |
+21.76%
+24.83% +19.22% +16.65% +14.89% |
|
Bonds
|
U.S. Bonds
International Bonds |
BND
BNDX |
-1.02%
-0.86% |
+7.75%
+7.57% |
|
Real Estate Equities
|
U.S. Real Estate
International Real Estate |
VNQ
VNQI |
-3.38%
-1.03% |
+25.21%
+17.48% |
|
Precious Metals Equites
|
Global Gold Miners
Global Junior Gold Miners |
RING
GDXJ |
-7.41%
-7.79% |
+31.91%
+20.22% |
RETURNS SINCE GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET PEAK (26 JAN 2018)
As shown below, global equities peaked 26 Jan 2018 and remained range-bound through the first 9 months of 2018 until the U.S. began its decline in early Oct. The have since recovered dramatically off their 24 Dec 2018 lows and have now exceeded previous peak (including dividends) set on 26 Jan 2018.
A breakdown of current regional divergences in equity performance is as follows:
A breakdown of current regional divergences in equity performance is as follows:
- Global equities remain above the last significant price decline (red dotted line) which occurred in May 2019. Price is above the rising 200 day moving average. (Bullish)
- U.S. equities remain above the last significant price decline (red dotted line) which occurred in May 2019. Price is above the rising 200 day moving average. (Bullish)
- European equities remain above the last significant price decline (red dotted line) which occurred in May 2019. Price is above the rising 200 day moving average. (Bullish)
- Asia Pacific equities remain above the last significant price decline (red dotted line) which occurred in May 2019. Price is above the rising 200 day moving average. (Bullish)
- Emerging market equities remain above the last significant price decline (red dotted line) which occurred in May 2019. Price is above the rising 200 day moving average. (Bullish)
Below is the percentage returns for each of the previously discussed monitored equity regions since the global equity peak in 26 Jan 2018 (peak shown by horizontal thin green line on the charts).
As can be seen, despite the volatility over the past year global equities have essentially gone nowhere over the past 21 months. However, they have now marginally exceeded their 26 Jan 2018 peak on a total return basis (inc. dividends) which is a welcome change. However, regional performance continues mixed with only U.S. equities remaining above the Jan, 2018 peak. It remains unclear if other global regions ex-U.S. can begin to catch-up to U.S. out-performance (balanced global equity performance among all regions is preferred to only 1 region carrying the performance burden).
As can be seen, despite the volatility over the past year global equities have essentially gone nowhere over the past 21 months. However, they have now marginally exceeded their 26 Jan 2018 peak on a total return basis (inc. dividends) which is a welcome change. However, regional performance continues mixed with only U.S. equities remaining above the Jan, 2018 peak. It remains unclear if other global regions ex-U.S. can begin to catch-up to U.S. out-performance (balanced global equity performance among all regions is preferred to only 1 region carrying the performance burden).
RETURNS SINCE EQUITY MARKET BOTTOM (24 DEC 2018)
Below are the returns for the various monitored equity regions since the global equity market bottom on 24 Dec 2018. All regions have advanced significantly off their 24 Dec 2018 lows with global equities up +27.87%.
Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
"I skate to where the puck is going to be; not where it has been."
Wayne Gretzky
Wayne Gretzky
As we appear to be approaching a potential turning point in global growth, we continue to utilize global macroeconomic data provided by our data partners at Hedgeye Risk Management. Their data remains one of the most accurate available when attempting to forecast future macroeconomic shifts globally so we use their data to anticipate where the "puck" may go in global macroeconomics.
The Hedgeye Growth/Inflation/Policy (GIP) model uses 90 high frequency inputs per quarter within a Bayesian Inference algorithm to adjust in real-time for the current quarter along with 24 month rate-of-change base effects for future quarters. The forecast is subject to actual economic data as it is released in real time within the quarter so we continue to monitor each data point. They classify each countries model outputs according to the following:
Quad 1 (Dark green):
The Hedgeye Growth/Inflation/Policy (GIP) model uses 90 high frequency inputs per quarter within a Bayesian Inference algorithm to adjust in real-time for the current quarter along with 24 month rate-of-change base effects for future quarters. The forecast is subject to actual economic data as it is released in real time within the quarter so we continue to monitor each data point. They classify each countries model outputs according to the following:
Quad 1 (Dark green):
- Growth rising/Inflation falling.
- Overweight equites/credit; underweight fixed income.
- Growth rising/Inflation rising.
- Overweight equites/credit; underweight fixed income.
- Growth falling/Inflation rising.
- Overweight fixed income; underweight equites/credit.
- Growth falling/Inflation falling.
- Overweight fixed income; underweight equites/credit.
Below is a "zoomed-in" view of the monitored countries with their specific Quad outputs. The current data points to a potential strengthening in a select number of European countries (Quads 1 or 2) with the U.S. forecast to be in Quad 3 or 4 over the next 6 months.
Below we continue to show the latest Ned Davis Research Global Recession Probability model which triggered a "high risk" global recession warning in the 3rd quarter of 2018. This is a seriously negative indication which drastically increases the probability (92.68%) a global recession is either currently occurring or forthcoming.
Adding to our concern about potential recession concerns, below is the latest US recession probability model published by the New York Federal Reserve. The reading at the end of June 2019 rose above 30% for the 1st time since 2007; the threshold that has accurately predicted a pending recession within the US in the following 12 months since 1960 (chart notations are ours; official US recessions are shown in shaded blue).
Below is a study for each occurrence when the NY FED Recession Probabilities model has been above 30 for 2 consecutive months. As can be seen, at 6 months and later the market returns (S&P 500 index) are poor.
While U.S. stock market performance has been strong (leading global equities higher), a growing concern is the lack of "enthusiasm" from Chief Executive Officers (CEO's). As shown below, the CEO Confidence Survey peaked in 2017 and has now reached levels last seen at stock market peaks in both 2000 and 2007. This is concerning as typically CEO's are best positioned to evaluate corporate performance and current lack of confidence is now approaching critical levels which in the past precluded bear market equity declines.
In general, stocks tend to perform below average in the year leading up to and during a recession and perform above average in the 1, 3, and 5 years following the end of a recession. As such, we are keenly monitoring our 5-factor model to begin reducing equity exposure in the face of this potential catalyst. Our high frequency recession models have yet to signal pending recession so we remain vigilant.
As global macro conditions continue to deteriorate, we continue to see Central Banks quickly reversing previously tightening interest rate cycles. Below it can be seen of the 12 major Central Banks we monitor, 10 are now in a dovish rate-cutting cycle (with only the Bank of England and Bank of Canada yet to begin a rate-cutting cycle). This is clearly in response to global growth declining and the risk of global recession increasing.
Major Central Bank Rates
Expanded Central Bank Rates
Asset Class Return Monitor
(for week ending 08 November 2019)
(for week ending 08 November 2019)
Equities Legend:
Bonds Legend:
Currencies Legend:
Commodities Legend:
- Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT): (Cyan)
- Vanguard Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (VTI): (Red)
- Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK): (Lime Green)
- Vanguard FTSE Asia Pacific ETF (VPL): (Dark Blue)
- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO): (Pink)
Bonds Legend:
- Vanguard Total U.S. Bond Market ETF (BND): (Black)
- Vanguard Total International ex-U.S. Bond ETF (BNDX): (Green)
Currencies Legend:
- U.S. Dollar Index (Cash Settlement EOD) ($USD): (Orange)
- Euro (Philadelphia Index) ($XEU): (Maroon)
Commodities Legend:
- PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC): (Purple)
- SPDR Gold ETF (GLD): (Sky Blue)
Past Week Asset Class returns
- Over the past week world equities (as measured by the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (shown in CYAN) gained +0.88%.
- Asia Pacific market equities were the top performing equity region this past week with European markets lagging.
- U.S. bonds (Black) and International bonds (Green) were lower on the week.
- Commodities were flat on the week with the USD strongly higher.
Year-to-Date (2019) Asset Class returns
- Thus far in 2019 global equities (as measured by the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (shown in CYAN) have gained +21.76%.
- US equities have been the top performing equity region thus far in 2019 with Emerging markets lagging.
- Bonds have shown positive returns thus far in 2018 with International Bonds (Green) under-performing U.S. bonds (Black).
- Commodities have had positive returns with the USD index modestly higher for 2019.
We remain concerned about excessive equity valuation (especially in the U.S.) relative to historical values. Markets continue to be priced for perfection and and any one of the following events (which we refer to as the 6 Horsemen of the Apocalypse) could quickly bring on a recession and a rapid reduction (40%+) in equity prices:
- a central bank policy mistake (slow to respond to slowing growth through interest rate reductions)
- a major disruption to international trade (trade wars or tariffs)
- a surge in inflation
- a surge in yields
- significant US dollar appreciation
- a geopolitical shock (region military conflict, war)
* Note for the 1st time one of our major event triggers (potential trade disruption due to trade tariffs) has triggered. This has the potential to escalate rapidly into international trade and currency wars which NEVER result in increased equity prices. This is a major concern we continue to monitor over the near term.
Typically bull/bear markets follow a cycle of investor psychology which peaks with euphoria.
In the big picture, it is apparent we saw signs of investor exhilaration/euphoria in early Jan 2018 and have now since retreated towards the "unease" zone.
It must be reemphasized a complete market cycles is composed of 2 distinct cycles/phases: a Bull phase and a Bear phase. We are currently within the the final innings of the "bull 1/2 cycle" and the "bear 1/2 cycle" is oncoming. The key to long term investment success is to protect the majority of those bull 1/2 cycle gains when the bear market comes calling.
We illustrate current market overvaluation via 3 charts produced by Crestmont Research (as of 01 October with data from 1871-to-present). While it is not necessary to understand exactly how the data is plotted, it is important for every investor to realize where current valuations stand relative to this 149 years of history.
In the following graphs note the following:
While valuations have improved marginally from their Sep 2018 peak, clearly it can be seen equities remain very richly valued relative to 149 years of historical data (and have been for a long period of time).
What would it take for us to become extremely bearish on equities? It is a rise or fall in inflation. As can be seen on the 2nd chart below, historically higher valuations can be supported as long as U.S. inflation remains within a 0%-3% inflation corridor. Should inflation move outside this corridor we believe this would be the trigger for a massive repricing of equities lower. This is why our model so closely monitors inflation data (which currently remains benign).
We illustrate current market overvaluation via 3 charts produced by Crestmont Research (as of 01 October with data from 1871-to-present). While it is not necessary to understand exactly how the data is plotted, it is important for every investor to realize where current valuations stand relative to this 149 years of history.
In the following graphs note the following:
- the Crestmont Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio is at 32.6 and remains near the most expensive market valuation in U.S. stock market history (since 1871). It peaked well above both the 2007 peak (24.7) and 1929 peak (26.4) as shown on the 1st chart.
- when compared to inflation the current Crestmont P/E remains within the very top region of the bubble zone defining the 1998-2000 bubble peak as shown on the 2nd chart.
- the current Crestmont P/E is 143% above its geometric mean; well above the 2007 peak (89%) and 1929 peak (99%) as shown on the 3rd chart. In September 2018 it reached the same level as the 2000 bubble peak at 153% (the absolute maximum in history).
While valuations have improved marginally from their Sep 2018 peak, clearly it can be seen equities remain very richly valued relative to 149 years of historical data (and have been for a long period of time).
What would it take for us to become extremely bearish on equities? It is a rise or fall in inflation. As can be seen on the 2nd chart below, historically higher valuations can be supported as long as U.S. inflation remains within a 0%-3% inflation corridor. Should inflation move outside this corridor we believe this would be the trigger for a massive repricing of equities lower. This is why our model so closely monitors inflation data (which currently remains benign).
Outside of inflation concerns, we remain within the very dangerous period near the end of bull markets where only a minor change in either investor risk appetite or economic performance would be all it takes to "upset the apple cart". Unfortunately valuation measures are a "blunt instrument" when it comes to market timing. Each bull market is different in character and market sentiment can remain bullish long past metrics of reasonable valuation. However, from a risk-reward perspective it is essential to understand risk remains highly elevated and long term equity returns (on a buy-and-hold basis) remain extremely low.
It cannot be overstated how important it is to protect the bulk of one's market gains during the bear market half-cycle. As can be seen below, as the percentage losses increase the required returns to get back to breakeven move in an exponential manner:
It cannot be overstated how important it is to protect the bulk of one's market gains during the bear market half-cycle. As can be seen below, as the percentage losses increase the required returns to get back to breakeven move in an exponential manner:
- a 20% loss requires a 25% gain
- a 30% loss requires a 43% gain
- a 40% loss requires a 67% gain
- a 50% loss requires a 100% gain
This is why it is so important to not let losses continue in the face of a bear market and why we advocate phased movements into cash as our 5-factor model reverts towards Red. The below graphic represents how we move within equity markets through a complete market cycle:
Given current market valuations and our expectation of a -40% or greater decline during the next bear market, "careful and cautious" remains our game plan. When we enter this sort of environment we can play the game on the long side but carefully eye the door for when the music stops. We have no intention in participating in the substantial downside yet to come to complete this current market cycle.
World Regional Equity Monitor
We use the following U.S. exchange traded funds to monitor equity performance for the various world regions:
- World Equities: Vanguard Total World ETF (Cyan)
- U.S. Equity: Vanguard Total Market ETF (Red)
- Asia Pacific Equity: Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF (Blue)
- European Equity: Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF: (Lime Green)
- Emerging Market Equity: Vanguard FTSE Emerging Market ETF (Pink)
1 Year Rolling Regional Equity Performance
- Over the past 12 month rolling period regional equity performance has been positive for the various monitored regions.
- The strongest equity region over the past 12 month has been U.S. Markets with Asia Pacific market equities lagging.
- Overall world equity performance (as measured by the Vanguard Total World ETF) have returned +11.47% (including dividends) over the past 12 month rolling period.
3 Month Rolling Regional Equity Performance
- Over the past 3 month rolling period the strongest performing world equity region has been Asia Pacific markets with U.S. markets the weakest.
- Strong regional equity returns have been evident over the past quarter (3 months).
1 Month Rolling Regional Equity Performance
- Over the past 1 month rolling period the strongest performing world equity region has been European markets with U.S. markets the weakest.
- Positive global equity returns are evident over the past month for all monitored regions.
Past Week Regional Equity Performance
- Over the past week major equity regions were higher with Asia Pacific markets outperforming other regions.
Latest Global Equity "Big Picture"
World equity market returns are monitored via the following index and ETF equity charts:
Dow Jones Global Market Index
(market cap weighted index)
For the week the Dow Jones Global Index has a gain of +0.77%. As can be seen on the 1st line chart above chart, price remains above the 65 week moving average and closed above the previous price resistance zone (which must now act as support).
On the 2nd weekly "zoomed-in" candlestick chart it can be seen the resistance @ 406-408 was broken several weeks ago for the 1st time in almost 2 years. This level must now hold on any pullback to keep the bullish momentum necessary to attempt a run at the all time highs set in Jan 2018 @ 425.30.
On the 2nd weekly "zoomed-in" candlestick chart it can be seen the resistance @ 406-408 was broken several weeks ago for the 1st time in almost 2 years. This level must now hold on any pullback to keep the bullish momentum necessary to attempt a run at the all time highs set in Jan 2018 @ 425.30.
Value Line Geometric Index and Global Dow Index
(equal weighted indexes)
The Value Line Geometric Index ($XVG; top panel) is the median price performance of 1700 U.S. companies equal weighted (as opposed to most indexes which are market cap weighted) into an index. Below that is the Global Dow index ($GDOW; bottom panel). It is a measure of the top 150 international companies equal weighted within the index.
These indexes are important as they equal-weight the price performance of all the companies held within the respective index. This removes the distortions associated with a small group of highly valued companies (which may be performing well) masking the performance of struggling companies and represents a good overview of overall equity performance.
These indexes are important as they equal-weight the price performance of all the companies held within the respective index. This removes the distortions associated with a small group of highly valued companies (which may be performing well) masking the performance of struggling companies and represents a good overview of overall equity performance.
The below chart is the daily line chart of both indexes. Both indexes remain above the lows visited in May 2019 (shown as a red dashed line) which now must hold. They have essentially remained range-bound for all of 2019 year-to-date and do not yet reflect the positive global equity breakout discussed previous for the cap-weighted ETF's.
Below are weekly charts of the same indexes. As can be seen, the Value Line index closed the week above the very important 508-520 area and remains below the trendline from the 2009 bottom while the Global Dow remains above the trendline from the 2009 lows.
Shown on the chart is a red dotted line defining the recent trading rage top. Should both the XVG and GDOW put in a weekly close above this level it would be a very bullish development (not as of this week).
Shown on the chart is a red dotted line defining the recent trading rage top. Should both the XVG and GDOW put in a weekly close above this level it would be a very bullish development (not as of this week).
Below is a 38 year daily chart of $XVG which clearly shows the critical price support/resistance @ 508-523 (1st achieved in 1998!). Also shown is the 2 previous corrections within the bull market from 2009 to put the current decline into context.
Price remains below the trendline from the 2009 bottom until a daily close > 593.57. As such, the current technical trend remains mixed.
Price remains below the trendline from the 2009 bottom until a daily close > 593.57. As such, the current technical trend remains mixed.
iShares MSCI ACWI ETF
(market cap weighted ETF)
The iShares MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) ETF is used as a benchmark to compare the performance of the various broad-based equity funds available in the Emirates Group Provident Scheme (EGPS) A/B/C accounts. It serves as a benchmark to determine how equity markets are performing on a worldwide basis. This assists in determining 2 parameters; whether to be invested in equities and also which funds within the EGPS offer the best performance relative to the benchmark.
The ETF is composed of the following regional components/weightings:
The ETF is composed of the following regional components/weightings:
ACWI Monthly Chart (since 2009)
As shown on the monthly chart above, world equity markets remained below the Jan, 2018 monthly closing price for almost 2 years until the breakout at the end of Oct, 2019. This is a potentially significant development but this breakout must hold over the next several months (there is always the possibility of a "bull-trap" which reverses quickly so the next few months are critical to the continued bull market).
For the month of November ACWI has gained +1.85%. It closed the month of October above the 12 month simple moving average (bullish) and ar new all-time highs..
For the month of November ACWI has gained +1.85%. It closed the month of October above the 12 month simple moving average (bullish) and ar new all-time highs..
ACWI Weekly Chart
This past week ACWI gained +0.82%. Price closed above the 65 week simple moving average (which acted as support throughout the 2014-2015 topping process) and closed above the previous resistance @ 74.99-75.06. This area must now hold as support on any future pullbacks.
Of note is the potential for a bearish descending wedge pattern (shown in RED). Should support not hold it opens the door to a decline back to the lower trend-line. Something to monitor closely into the end of 2019.
Of note is the potential for a bearish descending wedge pattern (shown in RED). Should support not hold it opens the door to a decline back to the lower trend-line. Something to monitor closely into the end of 2019.
World Equity Market Regional Relative Rotation Graphs
Below is a graph of 25 major regional equity market ETF's + ACWI (our world equity benchmark) shown on a Relative Rotation chart measured weekly with a 10 week look-back period (which forms the "tail" of the ETF). This graph allows us to observe over time how various regional ETF's are moving relative to both each other and also relative to cash.
- Leading (Green): (Momentum Positive + Price Relative Strength Positive)
- Weakening (Yellow): (Momentum Negative + Price Relative Strength Positive)
- Lagging (Red): (Momentum Negative + Price Relative Strength Negative)
- Improving (Blue): (Momentum Positive + Price Relative Strength Negative)
Given the cyclical nature of momentum and price within equity markets, in general the RRG charts will cycle in a clockwise manner (though not necessarily will each pass through all 4 quadrants as it is possible to rotate through an adjacent quadrant only).
Weekly Regional (Country) Relative Rotation Graphs (long term)
As can be seen on the above table, a large number of the monitored countries have transitioned into either the BLUE "Improving" quadrant or the GREEN "Leading" quadrant. In addition, ACWI (our world equity fund benchmark) remained within the GREEN "Leading" quadrant this week (the 1st time it has gone directly from the RED to GREEN quadrant in the past 10 years). This is a very positive sign for global equities.
The RRG trend analysis status is BULLISH for world equities:
- ACWI price Relative Strength (horizontal axis): POSITIVE
- ACWI price Momentum (vertical axis): POSITIVE
Coincident Equity Market Indicators
Crude Oil
Crude oil was modestly higher over the past week and continues to hold above the important $50 level. Firm crude oil prices typically point to increasing demand on the back of world economic growth improvement and the recent breakdown from the 2018 peak remains equity neutral. A close below the ascending price channel from the 2016 lows would be very concerning.
Gold
Gold was strongly lower over the past week. It was broadly lower through 2018 but began to turn bullish in late October as the global equity decline occurred. It remains above the support (ex-resistance) @ $1382-$1396 this past week.
Since bottoming in April the advance in Gold indicates increased market concern in equities with a move to the safety of gold. As long as gold continues to advance it remains equity bearish.
Since bottoming in April the advance in Gold indicates increased market concern in equities with a move to the safety of gold. As long as gold continues to advance it remains equity bearish.
Commodities
Commodities were almost unchanged over the past week. Since topping in May 2018 commodities have been on a steady (but not overly steep) decline indicating decreased demand (and thus decreased world growth). This remains equity bearish until the downtrend reverses.
U.S. 30 Year Treasury Bond
U.S. 30 year bonds were strongly lower on the week and broke below the 3 year long support (near $146-$148). They broke below the short-term uptrend line from late 2018 changing their trend to bearish. Rising bond prices indicate a "flight to quality" trade associated with weakening economic data and the current trend reversal is equity bullish.
Current 5-Factor Model Indications
The combined 5-Factor quantitative model is currently YELLOW (neutral). This indicates a balanced level of risk at present. However, the continued decline in global macroeconomic indications remains a worry as we move towards year-end. Any deterioration in the model will shift to a reduced risk recommendation.
The 5-Factor model currently has the following sub-model readings:
The 5-Factor model currently has the following sub-model readings:
Economic Model
The Economic model switched to YELLOW in early August 2018 (it was GREEN from May 2016) on the back of subtle but gradually declining world growth. It is unclear if trade tariffs are to blame or something more systemic but it is a growing concern world equities may become vulnerable. The model is composed of numerous inputs including data from the following sources:
Forward Forecast Data:
Current Data:
Forward Forecast Data:
- OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI)
- BlackRock Macro GPS Growth/Inflation forecast monitor
Current Data:
- J.P. Morgan Global Purchasing Managers (PMI) Index
- World Bank Global Economic Reports
- International Monitory Fund (IMF) World Economic Report
- OECD Economic Outlook
- CASS Global Freight Shipping Index
- Recession Alert: World Recession Report
OECD Composite Leading Indicators (12 November 2019)
The OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is designed to provide a 6-9 month lead time on turns in economic performance. As such, it is a useful "look-forward" tool we use to attempt to predict regional economic weakening/strengthening turn points.
The latest readings suggest subtle stabilization in economic activity but the large number of countries with readings under 100 indicates below average economic growth is forecast to continue over the next 6-9 months.
Latest Overview:
"Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend
six to nine months ahead, continue to anticipate stable below-trend growth momentum in the OECD area as
a whole.
Within OECD economies, stable growth momentum remains the assessment for France and Canada and is
now also anticipated in Japan and Italy, with similar signs now also emerging in the euro area as a whole.
On the other hand, the CLIs for the United States and Germany continue to point to easing growth
momentum, which is now also the assessment for the United Kingdom, although large margins of error persist
due to continuing Brexit uncertainty.
Among major emerging economies, the CLIs continue to signal stable growth momentum in China (for the
industrial sector) and Brazil and now, also, in Russia. In India, easing growth momentum remains the
assessment".
The latest readings suggest subtle stabilization in economic activity but the large number of countries with readings under 100 indicates below average economic growth is forecast to continue over the next 6-9 months.
Latest Overview:
"Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend
six to nine months ahead, continue to anticipate stable below-trend growth momentum in the OECD area as
a whole.
Within OECD economies, stable growth momentum remains the assessment for France and Canada and is
now also anticipated in Japan and Italy, with similar signs now also emerging in the euro area as a whole.
On the other hand, the CLIs for the United States and Germany continue to point to easing growth
momentum, which is now also the assessment for the United Kingdom, although large margins of error persist
due to continuing Brexit uncertainty.
Among major emerging economies, the CLIs continue to signal stable growth momentum in China (for the
industrial sector) and Brazil and now, also, in Russia. In India, easing growth momentum remains the
assessment".
The OECD (Total) Composite Leading Index topped in Dec 2017 @ 100.74 and is now well below 100 (indicating global economic growth below average). Critically, it is now below the previous correction lows of 2012 and 2016 and continues lower as of the last reading. This continues to be a major concern until it can bottom and reverse course.
ECAM Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) Heat Map
6-9 Month Business Cycle Lead Time
(color code shows respective CLI trend)
Below is our latest heat-map of the Composite Leading Indicators for various monitored regions.
The CLI is designed to predict business cycle changes 6-9 months in advance so the Peak/Trough dates can be used to predict turning point months for the various regions.
As can be seen, the map indicates very few regions/countries with CLI's > 100. This indicates weak world economic growth is projected over the next 6-9 months. Until we see a trough/reversal in the major regional signals, it is premature to anticipate a return to global synchronized growth.
- Red/Green boxes indicates CLI rate of change month/month and year/year.
- Readings < 100 indicate projected below average economic growth.
The CLI is designed to predict business cycle changes 6-9 months in advance so the Peak/Trough dates can be used to predict turning point months for the various regions.
As can be seen, the map indicates very few regions/countries with CLI's > 100. This indicates weak world economic growth is projected over the next 6-9 months. Until we see a trough/reversal in the major regional signals, it is premature to anticipate a return to global synchronized growth.
BlackRock Macro GPS Growth/Inflation Forecast (31 October 2019)
The BlackRock macro-GPS aims to give a forward forecast on the growth & inflation outlook for G7 economies. It combines new sources of information using new "big-data" sources – including internet searches and text mining of corporate calls - as well as traditional economic data. Other big data inputs include online job postings, inflation chatter, satellite images, e-invoicing and traffic patterns.
The BlackRock GPS forecasts the following:
The BlackRock GPS forecasts the following:
- the potential year-over-year GDP reading versus current consensus 3 months forward.
- the potential year-over-year Inflation reading versus current consensus 6 months forward.
BlackRock GDP Growth Forecast vs. Current Consensus
BlackRock Inflation Forecast vs. Current Consensus
J.P. Morgan Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (06 November 2019)
The Global Composite PMI Report is based on the results of manufacturing and service sector surveys covering over 18,000 purchasing executives in over 40 countries. Together these countries account for an estimated 89% of global gross domestic product (GDP).
Questions are asked about real events and are not opinion based. Data are presented in the form of diffusion indices, where an index reading above 50.0 indicates an increase in the variable since the previous month and below 50.0 a decrease. As such, using the PMI data gives us a real-time look at global growth.
Questions are asked about real events and are not opinion based. Data are presented in the form of diffusion indices, where an index reading above 50.0 indicates an increase in the variable since the previous month and below 50.0 a decrease. As such, using the PMI data gives us a real-time look at global growth.
- readings > 50 indicating economic expansion
- readings < 50 indicate economic contraction.
Latest Updates
Global Manufacturing (04 Nov):
"The global manufacturing sector contracted for the sixth successive month in October, according to the latest global PMI™ surveys. The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI – a composite index produced by J.P.Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – posted 49.8 in October, remaining below the neutral mark of 50.0. That said, a third successive rise in the PMI provided a further sign that the downturn may have bottomed out in July."
Global Services:
TBA
Global Composite (06 Nov):
"The global economy made a weak start to the final quarter. The rate of output growth slowed to its joint second-weakest during the current seven-year sequence of expansion. New order inflows also rose at a weaker pace, while job losses were registered for the first time in almost a decade. The J.P.Morgan Global Composite Output Index – which is produced by J.P.Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – posted 50.8 in October, its lowest reading since February 2016 and consistent with only a mild increase in economic output. The level of the headline index has moved lower in each of the past three months."
"The global manufacturing sector contracted for the sixth successive month in October, according to the latest global PMI™ surveys. The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI – a composite index produced by J.P.Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – posted 49.8 in October, remaining below the neutral mark of 50.0. That said, a third successive rise in the PMI provided a further sign that the downturn may have bottomed out in July."
Global Services:
TBA
Global Composite (06 Nov):
"The global economy made a weak start to the final quarter. The rate of output growth slowed to its joint second-weakest during the current seven-year sequence of expansion. New order inflows also rose at a weaker pace, while job losses were registered for the first time in almost a decade. The J.P.Morgan Global Composite Output Index – which is produced by J.P.Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – posted 50.8 in October, its lowest reading since February 2016 and consistent with only a mild increase in economic output. The level of the headline index has moved lower in each of the past three months."
The Global Composite Output Index is shown below (darker thick blue line). As can be seen, global manufacturing (thin red line) remains in contraction (below 50) while global services (thin light blue line) continue to show modest expansion (above 50). We would like to see the global manufacturing data begin to improve in order to feel confident we are not on the cusp of a global recession. This has yet to happen so the global economy remains fragile at present.
Global Output Index (Composite/Manufacturing/Services)
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Global Composite Output Index vs. Global GDP
Below is our PMI monitor for selected regions/countries.
- values > 50 indicate economic expansion
- values < 50 indicating economic contraction (shown in RED)
- trend GREEN indicates improvement over the past month with RED indicating a decline over the previous month.
The latest data continues to point to weak economic output globally (especially in manufacturing). However, we have noted a subtle improvement in trend in a number of regions (note the Green boxes) so it is encouraging that the worst may be over as far as economic contraction.
World Bank Global Monthly Outlook (October 2019)
IMF World Economic Report Summary (October 2019)
"Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook. Growth is projected to pick up to 3.4 percent in 2020 (a 0.2 percentage point downward revision compared with April), reflecting primarily a projected improvement in economic performance in a number of emerging markets in Latin America, the Middle East, and emerging and developing Europe that are under macroeconomic strain. Yet, with uncertainty about prospects for several of these countries, a projected slowdown in China and the United States, and prominent downside risks, a much more subdued pace of global activity could well materialize. To forestall such an outcome, policies should decisively aim at defusing trade tensions, reinvigorating multilateral cooperation, and providing timely support to economic activity where needed. To strengthen resilience, policymakers should address financial vulnerabilities that pose risks to growth in the medium term. Making growth more inclusive, which is essential for securing better economic prospects for all, should remain an overarching goal."
OECD Interim Economic Outlook (September 2019)
Cass Freight Index Report (October 2019)
(Sept. 2019 data)
(Sept. 2019 data)
U.S. Outlook:
"Continued deterioration in the Cass Freight Shipments Index concerns us:
Global airfreight Outlook:
"Airfreight volumes in Europe continue to suggest that the region’s economy continues to cool. Airfreight volumes in Asia suggest that the region is on the verge of, or is already entering, a recession. As we’ve highlighted before, when trade tariffs slow the rate of growth for our global trading partners, it poses a real threat to the U.S. rate of economic growth."
"Continued deterioration in the Cass Freight Shipments Index concerns us:
- When the December 2018 Cass Shipments Index was negative for the first time in 24 months, we dismissed the decline as reflective of a tough comparison. In January and February 2019, we again made rationalizations. When March was also negative (-1.0%), we warned that we were preparing to “change tack” in our outlook; when April was down (-3.2%), we said, “we see material and growing downside risk to the economic outlook.”
- With the -3.4% drop in September, following the -3.0% drop in August, -5.9% drop in July, -5.3% drop in June, and the -6.0% drop in May, we repeat our message from the previous four months: the shipments index has gone from “warning of a potential slowdown” to “signaling an economic contraction.”
- We acknowledge that: all of these negative percentages are against extremely tough comparisons, and the Cass Shipments Index has gone negative before without being followed by a negative GDP. However, weakness in demand is being seen across most modes of transportation, both domestically and internationally, with many experiencing increases in the rates of decline.
- We know that freight flows are a leading indicator, so by definition there is a lag between what they are predicting and when the outcome is reported. Nevertheless, we see a growing risk that GDP will go negative by year’s end.
- The weakness in spot market pricing for many transportation services, especially trucking, is consistent with the negative Cass Shipments Index and, along with airfreight and railroad volume data, strengthens our concerns about the economy and the risk of ongoing trade policy disputes. Weakness in commodity prices, and the ongoing decline in interest rates, have all joined the chorus of signals calling for an economic contraction."
Global airfreight Outlook:
"Airfreight volumes in Europe continue to suggest that the region’s economy continues to cool. Airfreight volumes in Asia suggest that the region is on the verge of, or is already entering, a recession. As we’ve highlighted before, when trade tariffs slow the rate of growth for our global trading partners, it poses a real threat to the U.S. rate of economic growth."
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"European airfreight volumes have been negative since March 2018, but only by small single-digit margins (-1% to -3%), until November 2018. Unfortunately, since then, volumes have started to further deteriorate. Our European Airfreight Index was down an alarming -7.2% in April, recovered slightly and was only down -2.6% in May, before dropped back to more concerning rates of contraction (-7.5% in June, -5.8% in July, and -8.6% in August) which are consistent with the deteriorating Eurozone PMI. While the August overall drop in London airfreight volume (-9.9%) suggests that economic headwinds from Brexit are real and remain a headwind, particularly since the some of the largest rates of decline (down -11% to -25%) have been experienced in the lanes between (to and from) London and other EU airports. Although the European data is by itself distressing, it’s the Asian data that has become the most alarming."
"Asian airfreight volumes were essentially flat from June to October 2018, but have since deteriorated at an accelerating pace (November -3.5%, December -6.1%, January –5.4%, February -13.2%, March -3.6%, -10.2% in April, -8.5% in May, -7.4% in June, -6.8% in July, -8.2% in August, and our preliminarily September index fell -9.4%). If the overall volume wasn’t distressing enough, the volumes of the three largest airports (Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Incheon) are experiencing the highest rates of contraction."
"Even more alarming, the inbound volumes for Shanghai have plummeted. This concerns us since it is the inbound shipment of high value/low density parts and pieces that are assembled into the high-value tech devices that are shipped to the rest of the world. Hence, in markets such as Shanghai, the inbound volumes predict the outbound volumes and the strength of the high-tech manufacturing economy. Hence, in markets such as Shanghai, the inbound volumes predict the outbound volumes and the strength of the high-tech manufacturing economy."
"Whether it is a result of contagion or trade disputes, there is growing evidence from freight flows that the economy is beginning to contract......
"Each of these data sets supports our assertion that the Cass Shipments Index is indicative of economic retrenchment bordering on contraction. Our confidence in this outlook is emboldened by the knowledge that since the end of World War II (the period for which we have reliable data) there has never been an economic contraction without there first being a contraction in freight flows. Conversely, during the same period, there has never been an economic expansion without there first being an expansion in freight flows. Bottom line: the volume of freight in multiple modes is materially slowing and suggests an increasingly bearish economic outlook for the U.S. domestic economy."
"Asian airfreight volumes were essentially flat from June to October 2018, but have since deteriorated at an accelerating pace (November -3.5%, December -6.1%, January –5.4%, February -13.2%, March -3.6%, -10.2% in April, -8.5% in May, -7.4% in June, -6.8% in July, -8.2% in August, and our preliminarily September index fell -9.4%). If the overall volume wasn’t distressing enough, the volumes of the three largest airports (Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Incheon) are experiencing the highest rates of contraction."
"Even more alarming, the inbound volumes for Shanghai have plummeted. This concerns us since it is the inbound shipment of high value/low density parts and pieces that are assembled into the high-value tech devices that are shipped to the rest of the world. Hence, in markets such as Shanghai, the inbound volumes predict the outbound volumes and the strength of the high-tech manufacturing economy. Hence, in markets such as Shanghai, the inbound volumes predict the outbound volumes and the strength of the high-tech manufacturing economy."
"Whether it is a result of contagion or trade disputes, there is growing evidence from freight flows that the economy is beginning to contract......
"Each of these data sets supports our assertion that the Cass Shipments Index is indicative of economic retrenchment bordering on contraction. Our confidence in this outlook is emboldened by the knowledge that since the end of World War II (the period for which we have reliable data) there has never been an economic contraction without there first being a contraction in freight flows. Conversely, during the same period, there has never been an economic expansion without there first being an expansion in freight flows. Bottom line: the volume of freight in multiple modes is materially slowing and suggests an increasingly bearish economic outlook for the U.S. domestic economy."
Recession-Alert
World Recession Report (15 October 2019)
Current Country-specific GDP Growth Quarter-on-Quarter (41 country data-set):
- Expansion = 37
- Negative = 2 (1 quarter negative GDP growth)
- Recession = 2 (2 or more quarters of negative GDP growth)
Forward Projected Growth-OECD Composite Leading Index (38 country data-set):
- Expansion = 8
- Contraction = 30
U.S. Economic Growth & Inflation
Year-over-Year GDP growth
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 2 percent in the third quarter of 2019 over the same quarter of the previous year. GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.20 percent from 1948 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 13.40 percent in the fourth quarter of 1950 and a record low of -3.90 percent in the second quarter of 2009.
Quarter-over-Quarter GDP growth
The US economy grew by an annualized 1.9 percent in the third quarter of 2019, beating market expectations of 1.6 percent and following a 2.0 percent expansion in the previous three-month period, the advance estimate showed. Household consumption, government spending and exports were the main drivers of growth while business investment fell and imports made a negative contribution to GDP. GDP Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.21 percent from 1947 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 16.70 percent in the first quarter of 1950 and a record low of -10 percent in the first quarter of 1958.
Annualized Inflation
The US annual inflation rate was unchanged at 1.7 percent in September 2019, slightly below market consensus of 1.8 percent, as a pick up in food inflation was offset by a further decline in energy prices. Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.26 percent from 1914 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 23.70 percent in June of 1920 and a record low of -15.80 percent in June of 1921.
Eurozone Economic Growth & Inflation
Year-over-Year GDP growth
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) In the Euro Area expanded 1.10 percent in the third quarter of 2019 over the same quarter of the previous year. GDP Annual Growth Rate in the Euro Area averaged 1.69 percent from 1995 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 5 percent in the first quarter of 1995 and a record low of -5.50 percent in the first quarter of 2009.
Quarter-over-Quarter GDP growth
The Eurozone economy grew 0.2 percent on quarter in the three months to September 2019, the same pace as in the previous period and slightly above market expectations of 0.1 percent, a flash estimate showed. Among the bloc's largest economies, France's GDP expanded 0.3 percent and Spain's economy grew 0.4 percent. GDP Growth Rate in the Euro Area averaged 0.39 percent from 1995 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 1.30 percent in the second quarter of 1997 and a record low of -3 percent in the first quarter of 2009.
Annualized Inflation
The annual inflation rate in the Euro Area is expected to slow to 0.7 percent in October 2019 from 0.8 percent in the previous month and matching market expectations, a preliminary estimate showed. It was the lowest inflation rate since November 2016, as cost of energy dropped further. Inflation Rate in the Euro Area averaged 1.98 percent from 1991 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 5 percent in July of 1991 and a record low of -0.60 percent in July of 2009.
Japan Economic Growth & Inflation
Year-over-Year GDP growth
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Japan expanded 1 percent in the second quarter of 2019 over the same quarter of the previous year. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Japan averaged 1.97 percent from 1981 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 9.40 percent in the first quarter of 1988 and a record low of -8.80 percent in the first quarter of 2009.
Quarter-over-Quarter GDP growth
Japan's quarterly economic growth was revised lower to 0.3 percent in the second quarter of 2019 from a preliminary estimate of 0.4 percent and compared to the previous period's 0.5 percent growth. There was a sharp downward revision of capital expenditure amid weakness in the global economy and worsening trade protectionism. GDP Growth Rate in Japan averaged 0.49 percent from 1980 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 3.20 percent in the second quarter of 1990 and a record low of -4.80 percent in the first quarter of 2009.
Annualized Inflation
Japan's consumer price inflation fell to 0.2 percent year-on-year in September 2019 from 0.3 percent in the previous month and well below market expectations of 0.4 percent. It was the lowest inflation rate in seven months, mainly pushed down by lower gasoline prices. The latest reading raises the chances of further stimulus after the Bank of Japan decided to leave policy unchanged during its September meeting but left the window wide open for easing, calling for a review of prices and the economy in October. Annual core consumer inflation, which excludes fresh food, was at 0.3 percent in August, the lowest since April 2017. Inflation Rate in Japan averaged 2.96 percent from 1958 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 24.90 percent in February of 1974 and a record low of -2.50 percent in October of 2009.
China Economic Growth & Inflation
Year-over-Year GDP growth
The Chinese economy advanced 6.0 percent year-on-year in the September quarter of 2019, slowing from a 6.2 percent expansion in the previous quarter and compared with market expectations of 6.1 percent. It was the weakest growth rate since the first quarter of 1992, amid persistent trade tensions with the US, weakening global demand and alarming off-balance-sheet borrowings by local governments. GDP Annual Growth Rate in China averaged 9.39 percent from 1989 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 15.40 percent in the first quarter of 1993 and a record low of 3.80 percent in the fourth quarter of 1990.
Quarter-over-Quarter GDP growth
The Chinese economy expanded by a seasonally adjusted 1.5 percent on quarter in the three months to September 2019, following a 1.6 percent growth in the previous period and matching market consensus. GDP Growth Rate in China averaged 1.77 percent from 2010 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.40 percent in the first quarter of 2011 and a record low of 1.40 percent in the first quarter of 2016.
Annualized Inflation
China's annual inflation rose to 3.8 percent in October 2019 from 3 percent in the previous month and above market expectations of 3.3 percent. This was the highest inflation rate since January 2012, mainly due to persistently high pork prices following an outbreak of African swine fever. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.9 percent in October, the same as in September, and higher than market estimates of 0.7 percent. Inflation Rate in China averaged 5.13 percent from 1986 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 28.40 percent in February of 1989 and a record low of -2.20 percent in April of 1999.
Valuation Model
The Valuation model remains RED/negative due to overvaluation of equity markets at current prices relative to historical data. We continue to update forecasts from a number of historically reliable sources (see section titled "Market Valuation"). Long term equity returns vary inversely with market valuation and at current price levels forward returns will be much lower than historical average returns (projected to be approximately 2% per year ex-inflation over the next 10 years).
Technical Model
The Technical model remained GREEN this past week. World Equity markets continue to remain near their most recent peak with with most technical indicators and market breadth now positive.
Sentiment Model
The Sentiment model remained YELLOW this week on the back of a neutral sentiment among retail and institutional investors (sentiment acts as an inverse trading indicator).
Economic Stress Model
The U.S. Economic Stress model remains GREEN this week with very little U.S. financial stress indicated. Our 1 year forward U.S. recession indicators for the U.S. remained "Low Risk" but our Global ex-U.S. 1 year forward recession indicators recently moved up to "High Risk".
World Bond Asset Class Return Monitor
We use the following U.S. exchange traded funds to monitor bond performance for the various bond asset classes:
Total Market Bond Basket:
- U.S. Total Bond Market (BND): (Red)
- International (ex-U.S.) Total Bond Market (BNDX): (Blue)
- U.S. Gov't Treasury Bonds (GOVT): (Orange)
- Foreign Developed Market Gov't Treasury Bonds (BWX): (Pink)
- U.S. Corporate Bond (LQD): (Maroon)
- International Corporate Bond (PICB): (Black)
- U.S. High Yield Bond (JNK): (Purple)
- International High Yield Bond (IHY): (Green)
- U.S. Gov't Inflation Protected Bonds (TIP): (Lime Green)
- International Gov't Inflation-Protected Bond (WIP): (Cyan)
1 Year Rolling Bond Performance
- Over the past 12 months rolling period the top performing bond asset class has been U.S. Corporate Bonds with Int'l Corporate Bonds the worst performing.
- The U.S. Total Bond Market (RED) and the International (ex-U.S.) Total Bond Market (BLUE) have delivered positive returns over the past year.
3 Month Rolling Bond Performance
- Over the past 3 month rolling period the top performing bond asset class has been Int'l High Yield Bonds with Int'l Inflation Protected Bonds lagging.
- U.S. Total Bond Market (RED) and International (ex-U.S.) Total Bond Market (BLUE) having delivered negative returns over the past quarter (3 months).
1 Month Rolling Bond Performance
- Over the past 1 month rolling period the top performing bond asset class has been Int'l High Yield Bonds Bonds with U.S. Treasury Bonds lagging.
- The U.S. Total Bond Market (RED) and the International (ex-U.S.) Total Bond Market (BLUE) have delivered negative returns over the past month.
Past Week Bond Asset Class Performance
- Over the past week US High Yield bonds were the top performing bond class with Int'l Inflation Protected bonds lagging.
- The U.S. Total Bond Market (RED) and the International (ex-U.S.) Total Bond Market (BLUE) delivered negative returns over the past week.
Commentary:
It has been shown in repeated studies over many years a balanced portfolio consisting of both equities and bonds (with percentage holdings in each adjusted according to personal risk tolerances) remains the best methodology in managing a long term retirement portfolio (due to the independent/low correlated function each takes when navigating though various market cycles and economic conditions).
It is best to think of bonds and equities as 2 independent brains each looking at the market from a different perspective:
As such, both serve a useful purpose in a well balanced portfolio.
Bonds delivered flat returns throughout 2018 as rising inflation and strong growth persisted. However, recent economic weakness and subdued inflation has been favorable for both U.S. and International bonds throughout 2019.
We are very cognizant of the fact bond yields are at generational lows (bond prices overbought and at generational highs) and any significant economic recovery (with associated increases in inflation) has the potential to be very detrimental to bond fund returns. There is currently over $17 Trillion in negative yielding bonds globally (never before seen in 5000 years of history) so any sudden surge in global growth and/or inflation will have a devastating impact upon bond fund returns (hence the reason we place so much research into global macroeconomic conditions).
Rolling 12 month returns for bonds remain positive and we continue to monitoring closely US, German & Japanese rates to determine if (when) it may be appropriate to reduce bond positions. Our premise is these 3 bonds tend to be somewhat "tethered" due to capital flows so it would take a trend-change/breakout in all 3 key Treasuries in order to definitively state the global bull market in bonds is over.
It is best to think of bonds and equities as 2 independent brains each looking at the market from a different perspective:
- Equities: Corporate profits focused.
- Bonds: Economic growth and Inflation focused.
As such, both serve a useful purpose in a well balanced portfolio.
Bonds delivered flat returns throughout 2018 as rising inflation and strong growth persisted. However, recent economic weakness and subdued inflation has been favorable for both U.S. and International bonds throughout 2019.
We are very cognizant of the fact bond yields are at generational lows (bond prices overbought and at generational highs) and any significant economic recovery (with associated increases in inflation) has the potential to be very detrimental to bond fund returns. There is currently over $17 Trillion in negative yielding bonds globally (never before seen in 5000 years of history) so any sudden surge in global growth and/or inflation will have a devastating impact upon bond fund returns (hence the reason we place so much research into global macroeconomic conditions).
Rolling 12 month returns for bonds remain positive and we continue to monitoring closely US, German & Japanese rates to determine if (when) it may be appropriate to reduce bond positions. Our premise is these 3 bonds tend to be somewhat "tethered" due to capital flows so it would take a trend-change/breakout in all 3 key Treasuries in order to definitively state the global bull market in bonds is over.
ETF Bond Proxies
The current very strong bond bull market began 08 Nov 2018. Below is the performance of the 3 ETF's we use as "bond proxies" to monitor global bond performance:
- BND: Vanguard Total U.S. Bond market ETF (GREEN)
- BNDX: Vanguard Total International (ex-U.S.) Bond market ETF (BLUE)
- BNDW: Vanguard Total World Bond market ETF (RED)
As can be seen above, global bonds topped at the beginning of September and have been within a consolidation zone up to today. However, International (ex-US) bond have recently broken below their last significant bottom while both the U.S. and the "combined" bond ETF's remain above the lows (also note the dispersion between the US and ex-US ETF's as of early Oct). Should all 3 ETF's breaking below the last support this would be a technical change in trend.
U.S. 10 year Treasury Yield
After rates bottomed in mid-2016 (bond prices peaked as they are inversely correlated), rates rapidly rose to resistance on the perception of future economic growth + inflation. Importantly, price resistance near 2.6% (which had contained yields for almost 4 years) was broken in early 2018. A key resistance level at 3.006% - 3.036% was broken on May 15, 2018 (high 3.115%, daily close 3.109%) but was unable to hold for more than 1 trading day. The same level was broken upward in late Sept 2018 but broke down in mid-Dec.
Current resistance is at 1.977-2.056. A break above this would target the 2018 breakout level @ 2.597-2.648.
Current resistance is at 1.977-2.056. A break above this would target the 2018 breakout level @ 2.597-2.648.
German 10 year Bund Yield
German 10 year treasury yields have remained confined below 0.92% since 2014 with a bottom of -0.19% achieved in June 2016 (since broken lower in June 2019). Yields continue to fall from their early 2018 and this past week remained near all time lows.
A weekly close above -0.1890% and it is likely the bull market in German bonds is over. We are monitoring for such an event next week.
A weekly close above -0.1890% and it is likely the bull market in German bonds is over. We are monitoring for such an event next week.
Japanese 10 year Treasury Yield
Japan has been fighting deflation for decades and only recent unprecedented monetary policy by the BOJ appears to be having some effect upon deflation (and yields).
After bottoming at near -0.28% yields in mid 2016, a rapid rise to near 0.11% had held as resistance over the past 2 years. Yields have remained range-bound since (indicating deflation remains an ongoing problem in Japan) but this past week closed above -0.09%. Likely the bull market in Japanese bonds is over unless next week reverses this huge move upwards.
After bottoming at near -0.28% yields in mid 2016, a rapid rise to near 0.11% had held as resistance over the past 2 years. Yields have remained range-bound since (indicating deflation remains an ongoing problem in Japan) but this past week closed above -0.09%. Likely the bull market in Japanese bonds is over unless next week reverses this huge move upwards.
U.S. 30 year Treasury Yield
An extremely important longer-term chart we continue to watch is the yield on the U.S. 30 year treasury relative to its 100 month exponential moving average (red dotted line on the below chart going back to 1980) as well as the yield on the 10 year treasury with its 115 month EMA. As can be seen below, since the mid 1980's these moving average have acted as a cap on each attempted increase in yields.
Should any given month close with a yield higher than their respective moving average it would be strong confirmation the 35 year bull market in bonds is likely over.
* Note as of the end of Nov 2018 both the 30 year Treasury (top chart) and 10 year yield (bottom chart) closed above its long term moving average but have been unable to hold the breakout. We will continue to monitor this through 2019.
Should any given month close with a yield higher than their respective moving average it would be strong confirmation the 35 year bull market in bonds is likely over.
* Note as of the end of Nov 2018 both the 30 year Treasury (top chart) and 10 year yield (bottom chart) closed above its long term moving average but have been unable to hold the breakout. We will continue to monitor this through 2019.
Currencies
Below is the 12/3/1 month and weekly rolling returns for the 6 currencies that make up the U.S. Dollar index. The U.S. Dollar index is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value relative to the 6 currencies in the following list:
In addition, we also include the following for comparison purposes:
- Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight.
- Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight.
- U.K. Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight.
- Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight.
- Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight.
- Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight.
In addition, we also include the following for comparison purposes:
- The U.S. Dollar Index to allow comparison to its constituents.
- The Australian Dollar (not a part of the USD Index) as it is a popular commodity currency.
- Gold (priced in USD) as it typically acts more like a currency void of fiat printing.
1 Year Rolling Currency Performance
- Over the past 12 months rolling period the top performing major currency has been Gold with the Swedish Krona the worst performing.
3 Month Rolling Currency Performance
- Over the past 3 month rolling period the top performing currency has been the British Pound with Gold lagging.
1 Month Rolling Currency Performance
- Over the past 1 month rolling period the top performing currency has been the British Pound with Gold lagging.
Past Week Currency Performance
- Over the past week the top performing major currency was the U.S. Dollar with Gold lagging.
U.S. Dollar: (Neutral Bias)
Commentary:
The USD index was up +1.20% over the past week. The USD struggled throughout 2017 and into early 2018 as growth indicators had remained stagnant, U.S. officials complained about their "overvalued U.S. dollar", and rate expectation differentials between Central Banks began to narrow on gradual improvements in the Euro area economic data. However, since early 2018 this process has reversed with the USD remaining very bullish as weakening economic data out of the Eurozone have been offset by strengthening data (and rising relative interest rates) out of the U.S.
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon close):
Weekly: 94.25 / 98.18
Monthly: 94.58 / 100.21
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon close):
Weekly: 94.25 / 98.18
Monthly: 94.58 / 100.21
US Dollar Index Daily charts
The 1 year daily chart above shows the range-bound chop between 95-99 since Oct 2018. At weeks end the USD closed above the short term daily support @ 97.38-97.63 with the next support @ 96.90.
The 4 year daily chart above clearly shows the important daily close resistance for the USD over the past 3 years @ @ 97.21-98.43 (which was resistance this past week). It remains within an ascending price channel as shown on the chart.
Over the past week the USD closed above its short term trend 50 and 200 day moving averages.
(Short Term Bullish)
(Short Term Bullish)
US Dollar Index Weekly charts
The weekly chart shows the steady -15% decline the USD index experienced from late Dec 2016-early Jan 2018 (from 103.82 to 88.15). It remained in a consolidation zone (88.89-90.33) for 3 months and then in late April 2018 it broke out of its weekly consolidation box into its current uptrend.
Price ended the week at the strong resistance @ 97.55-98.18 and closed the week above the intermediate term trend 20 and 65 week moving averages. It appears to now be targeting the rising trendline from the Feb 2018 lows.
(Intermediate Term Bullish)
Price ended the week at the strong resistance @ 97.55-98.18 and closed the week above the intermediate term trend 20 and 65 week moving averages. It appears to now be targeting the rising trendline from the Feb 2018 lows.
(Intermediate Term Bullish)
A longer term 20 year look-back at the USD shows the 91.66-92.28 weekly close area (thick RED line) has been a very significant bull/bear battle zone over the past 21 years (since 1998). As long as price continues to hold above this significant price level the longer term USD call remains bullish.
It continues to hold the uptrend line from the 2011 bottom and appears to be within a large multi-year bullish ascending price channel.
It continues to hold the uptrend line from the 2011 bottom and appears to be within a large multi-year bullish ascending price channel.
US Dollar Index Monthly chart
For the month of November the U.S. Dollar index has gained +1.08%. Since bottoming in late 2011 the USD has been on a rollercoaster ride. It experienced:
Price closed October at the long term trend 10 month moving average maintaining the long term bias to bullish until months end. It remains within the middle of its past 3 year range and is range-bound between the previous monthly support @ 94.58-94.97 and resistance @ 98.66-100.21.
(Long Term Bullish)
- a large acceleration in 2014-2015,
- a consolidation in 2015-2017,
- a large drop in 2017-2018 back to support and its uptrend line from 2011, and
- its recent rise back to the top of its previous consolidation zone.
Price closed October at the long term trend 10 month moving average maintaining the long term bias to bullish until months end. It remains within the middle of its past 3 year range and is range-bound between the previous monthly support @ 94.58-94.97 and resistance @ 98.66-100.21.
(Long Term Bullish)
Euro (Bearish Bias)
The Euro lost -1.32% over the past week. It has shown remarkable longer-term resilience given ongoing European political uncertainty (Brexit, Spain, Germany, Italy) but has weakened since early 2018 due to eroding economic growth metrics out of the EU.
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon close):
Weekly: 107.99 / 114.62
Monthly: 105.25 /112.20
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon close):
Weekly: 107.99 / 114.62
Monthly: 105.25 /112.20
Euro Daily Charts
The Euro topped out in early 2018 @ 125.10 and has been on a steady decline since. It remains confined to a down-trending price channel established in late 2018 and remains near 2 1/2 year lows.
On the 2nd daily chart price it can be seen how important the yellow band daily resistance zone @ 114.61-116.04 is going back to 2015. It remains below this key resistance level and closed the week below the short term trend 50 and 200 day moving averages. It is now approaching daily support @ 108.24-108.66.
(Short Term Bearish)
On the 2nd daily chart price it can be seen how important the yellow band daily resistance zone @ 114.61-116.04 is going back to 2015. It remains below this key resistance level and closed the week below the short term trend 50 and 200 day moving averages. It is now approaching daily support @ 108.24-108.66.
(Short Term Bearish)
Euro Weekly Chart
The weekly chart shows the Euro had remained range bound for 2 1/2 years (January 2015-July 2017) between 104.96-105.95 and 114.47-114.62. A significant breakout occurred in the 2nd week of July 2017 when a weekly close above the trading range was established. However, this was lost in Oct 2018 and the Euro has remained weak since.
This past week the Euro closed back within the recent price support as shown on the chart (blue box). It closed the week below the intermediate trend 20 week + 65 week moving averages and above weekly support @ 107.99-108.46.
(Intermediate Term Bearish)
This past week the Euro closed back within the recent price support as shown on the chart (blue box). It closed the week below the intermediate trend 20 week + 65 week moving averages and above weekly support @ 107.99-108.46.
(Intermediate Term Bearish)
Euro Monthly
For the month of November the Euro has lost -1.22%. On a monthly closing basis it closed the month of October below the long term trend 10 month moving average keeping long term bearish until months end. It has broken below monthly support @ 112.12-112.20 and now looks to want to retest the monthly support @ 105.25-105.70.
(Long Term Bearish)
(Long Term Bearish)
UK Pound (Bullish Bias)
U.K. Pound Daily Charts
U.K. Pound Weekly Chart
U.K. Pound Monthly Chart
The British Pound lost -1.24% over the past week. Clearly the ongoing Brexit saga will continue to weigh heavily upon cable's performance over the next several years so it remains extremely volatile.
Critical levels to watch on the Pound remain the respective weekly and monthly reactionary closing prices following the Brexit vote in June 2016:
This past week the Pound closed the week above its short term trend daily 50 +200 day moving averages and above the intermediate term trend 20 + 65 week moving averages. For the month of November it has lost -1.28% and closed the month of October above its long term 10 month moving average.
(Short Term Bullish)
(Intermediate Term Bullish)
(Long Term Bullish)
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon close):
Weekly: 127.34 /129.50
Monthly: 125.09 /129.79
Critical levels to watch on the Pound remain the respective weekly and monthly reactionary closing prices following the Brexit vote in June 2016:
- 136.76 weekly close (weekly close 20 June 2016 following vote results)
- 133.09 monthly close (monthly close 30 June 2016 following vote results)
This past week the Pound closed the week above its short term trend daily 50 +200 day moving averages and above the intermediate term trend 20 + 65 week moving averages. For the month of November it has lost -1.28% and closed the month of October above its long term 10 month moving average.
(Short Term Bullish)
(Intermediate Term Bullish)
(Long Term Bullish)
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon close):
Weekly: 127.34 /129.50
Monthly: 125.09 /129.79
Australian Dollar (Bearish Bias)
Australian Dollar Daily Chart
Australian Dollar Weekly Chart(s)
Australian Dollar Monthly Chart
The Australian Dollar lost -0.71% over the past week. Price this past week remained below the critical 2 year weekly support @ 71.71-71.87 established as a consequence of the surprise RBA interest rate cut in late April, 2016 which led to a substantial 5 week decline of -8% and a subsequent 18 month consolidation (as shown in the blue box on the weekly chart). It remains in a firmly established downtrend and near 10 year lows.
For the month of November the Aussie dollar has lost -0.49%. It closed the week between the short term trend 50 + 200 day moving averages and between the intermediate term trend 20 + 65 week moving averages. It closed the month of October below the long term trend 10 month moving average.
(Short Term Neutral)
(Intermediate Term Neutral)
(Long Term Bearish)
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon close):
Weekly: 68.64 / 70.55
Monthly: 63.58 / 70.17
For the month of November the Aussie dollar has lost -0.49%. It closed the week between the short term trend 50 + 200 day moving averages and between the intermediate term trend 20 + 65 week moving averages. It closed the month of October below the long term trend 10 month moving average.
(Short Term Neutral)
(Intermediate Term Neutral)
(Long Term Bearish)
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon close):
Weekly: 68.64 / 70.55
Monthly: 63.58 / 70.17
Canadian Dollar (Neutral Bias)
Canadian Dollar Daily Chart
Canadian Dollar Weekly Chart
Canadian Dollar Monthly Chart
The Canadian dollar lost -0.62% over the past week. After topping in Aug, 2017, the Canadian Dollar has remained within a firmly established downtrend and has gradually returned to price levels last seen in early 2017.
The Loonie closed the week between the short term trend 50 + 200 day moving averages and below the intermediate term trend 20 + 65 week moving averages. It remains within the down-sloping weekly price channel from its mid-2017 peak.
For the month of November the Loonie has lost -0.50%. It continues to attempt to consolidate near recent lows and closed the month of October above the long term trend 10 month moving average.
(Short Term Neutral)
(Intermediate Term Bearish)
(Long Term Bullish)
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon close)
Weekly: 75.09 / 76.26
Monthly: 74.42 / 78.49
The Loonie closed the week between the short term trend 50 + 200 day moving averages and below the intermediate term trend 20 + 65 week moving averages. It remains within the down-sloping weekly price channel from its mid-2017 peak.
For the month of November the Loonie has lost -0.50%. It continues to attempt to consolidate near recent lows and closed the month of October above the long term trend 10 month moving average.
(Short Term Neutral)
(Intermediate Term Bearish)
(Long Term Bullish)
Support / Resistance Levels (based upon close)
Weekly: 75.09 / 76.26
Monthly: 74.42 / 78.49
Key Weekly Returns (week ending 08 November 2019):
|
Countries/Regions
World Equities ACWI (iShares MSCI ACWI Index Fund) North American Equities SPY (S&P 500 SPDRs) QQQ (PowerShares QQQ Trust) IWM (Russell 2000 iShares) EWC (Canada iShares) |
Characteristics
World Equity Fund U.S. Large Cap S&P 500 Index U.S. NASDAQ 100 Fund U.S. Russell 2000 Small Cap Fund Canada |
Week % Change
+0.82% +0.91% +1.19% +0.62% +1.48% |
Non-North America Equities
|
VGK (Vanguard European VIPERs) EPP (iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan ) EWJ (Japan iShares) EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets) ILF (Latin America 40 Index iShares) Bonds
BND (Vanguard Total U.S. Bond Market) BNDX (Vanguard International Bond ETF) TIP (iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund) PCY (PowerShares Emerging Markets Debt Portfolio) |
Europe/U.K Pacific ex-Japan (inc. Australia + NZ) Japan Emerging Markets Latin America US Total Bond (44% Gov't Tsy, 56%Corp) World Investment Grade Bonds ex-US Inflation Protected Gov't Bonds Emerging Market Sovereign Debt |
+0.34% +0.47% +1.13% +1.06% -3.11% -1.02% -0.86% -0.56% -1.19% |
|
Commodities
DBC (DB Commodities Tracking Index Fund) DBA (PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund) GLD (SPDR Gold Trust Shares) SLV (iShares Silver Trust) DBB (PowerShares Metals Fund) USO (United States Oil Fund) |
Commodity Basket Soft Commodity Basket Gold Bullion Silver Bullion Industrial Metals Light Crude Oil |
+0.00% +0.31% -3.63% -7.21% +0.19% +2.57% |
Currencies
|
UUP (PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish Fund)
FXA (Currency Shares Australian Dollar Trust) FXB (Currency Shares British Pound Sterling Trust) FXC (Currency Shares Canadian Dollar Trust) FXE (Currency Shares Euro Trust) FXY (Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust) |
U.S. Dollar
Australian Dollar U.K. Sterling Canadian Dollar Euro Japanese Yen |
+1.20%
-0.83% -1.21% -0.59% -1.34% -0.99% |
Important Charts to Watch
Commodity Basket Index
For the past 4 years the deflationary debt overhang has gripped world economies and equity markets have run up on the "hope" a return to world growth would begin soon. This would typically be reflected in a rise in commodity prices.
Commodities (as measured by the Reuters/Jefferies CRB index, a basket of 19 commodities) bottomed in early 2016 (along with equities) and have been on a gradual rise. In order to confirm world growth is firming we would like to see commodities moving higher but they have broken down in late 2018.
This past week price closed the week above the strong support @ 167.74-168.61 and above the uptrend line from the 2016 lows. However, it remains below the descending 65 week moving average which is concerning.
Commodities (as measured by the Reuters/Jefferies CRB index, a basket of 19 commodities) bottomed in early 2016 (along with equities) and have been on a gradual rise. In order to confirm world growth is firming we would like to see commodities moving higher but they have broken down in late 2018.
This past week price closed the week above the strong support @ 167.74-168.61 and above the uptrend line from the 2016 lows. However, it remains below the descending 65 week moving average which is concerning.
Equity Market Volatility
The Volatility Index (VIX) is a measure of expected price fluctuations of options on the S&P 500 index options over the next 30 days (technically the VIX is quoted in percentage points and represents the expected range of movement in the S&P 500 index over the next year, at a 68% confidence level i.e. one standard deviation of the normal probability curve). For example, if the VIX is 15, this represents an expected annualized change, with a 68% probability, of less than 15% up or down.
The VXV uses the same calculation but looks forward 3 months. When the VIX is greater than the VXV ($VIX:$VXV ratio > 1.0) the volatility structure is termed to be in "contango". It indicates traders are much more concerned about short term volatility than they are about longer term volatility and when that ratio returns to "normal" (< 0.93) it is typically a good sign market stress is easing (and a good time to add to equity positions).
As of this weeks market close volatility closed below the "VIX Trigger Event" area with the VIX below 16. The volatility structure is currently bullish for equities but it is important to note the VIX is now at the same levels (11-12) which have triggered market tops over the past 18 months (as noted on the chart below).
The VXV uses the same calculation but looks forward 3 months. When the VIX is greater than the VXV ($VIX:$VXV ratio > 1.0) the volatility structure is termed to be in "contango". It indicates traders are much more concerned about short term volatility than they are about longer term volatility and when that ratio returns to "normal" (< 0.93) it is typically a good sign market stress is easing (and a good time to add to equity positions).
As of this weeks market close volatility closed below the "VIX Trigger Event" area with the VIX below 16. The volatility structure is currently bullish for equities but it is important to note the VIX is now at the same levels (11-12) which have triggered market tops over the past 18 months (as noted on the chart below).
European Equities
Since the 2009 market bottom Europe has been the weakest major equity growth region. As such, we continue to monitor the German DAX index and French CAC index for indications of improving performance out of Europe.
For most of 2015-2016 Europe remained within a deflationary environment with poor stock performance. This changed in late 2016 when both the DAX and CAC were able to break above their respective trading ranges. The DAX topped out in Jan 2018 and remains well below this level. Contrarily, the French CAC has shown greater strength and has now exceeded its early 2018 peak.
This past week the DAX remained above its May 2019 lows but well below its 2018 peak. It remains above the key weekly closing support @ 11886-12014.
For most of 2015-2016 Europe remained within a deflationary environment with poor stock performance. This changed in late 2016 when both the DAX and CAC were able to break above their respective trading ranges. The DAX topped out in Jan 2018 and remains well below this level. Contrarily, the French CAC has shown greater strength and has now exceeded its early 2018 peak.
This past week the DAX remained above its May 2019 lows but well below its 2018 peak. It remains above the key weekly closing support @ 11886-12014.
We remain very concerned about European financial stocks. These are represented below using the iShares MSCI European Financials ETF. As can be seen below, European financial stocks were down 32% from their January 2018 highs to late 2018 lows and still remain well below their Jan 2018 peak. This is a significant concern as European banks are among the weakest globally and could be a focal point for global systematic risk. The support @ 15.89-16.03 must hold on any further pullbacks.
Of particular concern is Deutsche Bank which remains near 12 year lows (down over 94% from its 2007 peak!) DB has a massive derivatives exposure (currently estimated at $40T notional with net exposure near $100B) and should they be put forced into a position whereby they need to restructure it could potentially lead to a catastrophic ripple effects worldwide.
They announced a significant restructuring effort in the 2nd week of July, 2019 so we are keenly monitoring their price performance into the end of the year.
Chinese Equities
The Shanghai Composite index was fractionally higher this past week. It has broken above its downtrend line from the recent top and continues to test resistance @ 3050-3147.
Chinese growth remains key to both Emerging market performance as well as an indication of Developed markets demand. From its peak in mid-2015, the Shanghai index lost more than -50% to its recent lows. We would like to see significant strength return to China further indicating world economic growth continues to increase and the recent strength is encouraging.
Chinese growth remains key to both Emerging market performance as well as an indication of Developed markets demand. From its peak in mid-2015, the Shanghai index lost more than -50% to its recent lows. We would like to see significant strength return to China further indicating world economic growth continues to increase and the recent strength is encouraging.
PRECIOUS METALS
Precious metals (and their respective producers) remain an area we recommend all investors have at least a small position within. Precious metals perform well during times when real (inflation adjusted) interest rates are falling and/or when the USD is weak. Real global rates continue to fall (acting as a tailwind to PM's) while the USD has been strong (acting as a headwind to PM's). As such, PM's have risen but not at the rate they might once the USD reverses direction (something we expect may be forthcoming soon).
Below is a ratio price chart of gold stocks (HUI; the "Gold Bugs" Index) to gold bullion going back to 1996 when the HUI first came into existence. As can be seen, whenever the HUI:GOLD ratio dips to below approximately 0.14 (the GREEN zone on the chart) has been a low-risk opportunity to purchase gold stocks.
This past week gold stocks remained near the deep "low-risk vs. high-reward" range and remain near their cheapest valuations in 22 years. Historically purchases of gold equities when within this range have been a very good long term buying opportunities and it now appears gold stocks are attempting to play "catch-up" to the price of bullion.
This past week gold stocks remained near the deep "low-risk vs. high-reward" range and remain near their cheapest valuations in 22 years. Historically purchases of gold equities when within this range have been a very good long term buying opportunities and it now appears gold stocks are attempting to play "catch-up" to the price of bullion.
Even more bullish is Silver (chart below) which remains at a price ratio relative to gold (GREEN zone on the chart < .0130) which has historically been a low risk entry point over the past 38 years.
Silver remains near at its "cheapest" price since 2008 and 1995 (chart circles). Both previous moves to this ratio led to large silver price gains.
To put the valuation into a longer term perspective, below is a chart of the Gold/Silver ratio (the opposite ratio to Silver/Gold) going back to 1915. Clearly it can be seen a gold:silver ratio > 80 has historically been an outlier over the past 100+ years:
The current Gold:Silver ratio remains above 80 (Green line on the chart below) and near 26 year highs. It can be seen each instance in the past 40 years where the ratio has crossed above 80 has resulted in very good long term gains in silver.
There is no guarantee the ratio will not go higher (allowing for further silver losses or range bound trade as in 1991-1994) but it is now at a level that deserves attention (cautious traders may want to wait for a reversal < 80 to avoid a potential range bound episode as the 1990's)
EVEN MORE BULLISH is the price of Platinum (chart below) which has exceeded the "buy zone" last seen in 1982! Platinum is 15-20 times rarer than gold and has rarely in history traded at a price below the price of gold (only 9.7% of the time going back to 1971). It is now the cheapest it has been GOING BACK TO AUGUST 1971 WHEN THE U.S. LEFT THE GOLD STANDARD on a relative basis:
- The current Platinum:Gold ratio remains well below 0.85 (red line on the chart below).
- A Platinum/Gold ratio < 0.85 has only occurred 4.7% of the time back to 1971.
- Prior to recent lows, the lowest Platinum:Gold ratio since August 1971 (when the USD was removed from the gold standard) was hit on 20 Sept 1982 when it hit a ratio low of 0.689 (Platinum $300.40/Gold $436.00).
- If Platinum were to return to its most common ratio relative to Gold (1.0x-1.25x which has been common 35% of the time) it would imply a price rise of approximately 50-90% from recent levels.
Platinum now sits on a price support extending back to 2004 and, combined with its ratio relative to the price of gold, represents a compelling long term buy point.
The following charts and commentary (in italics; bold print is our emphasis) are sourced from Kitco from commentary sourced in Feb 2017 when the ratio was near 0.85 (Platinum has become even cheaper on a relative basis since the data was published):
Platinum to gold ratios show wide variance over the 46 year period ranging from highs above 2.5 before and soon after Nixon began taking the United States off the gold standard to periodic lows below 1.0:
Platinum to gold ratios show wide variance over the 46 year period ranging from highs above 2.5 before and soon after Nixon began taking the United States off the gold standard to periodic lows below 1.0:
Our data set covers 553 months beginning in January 1971. The distribution of ratios in both tabular and chart format follows:
Platinum/Gold Ratio: % of Months
Platinum/Gold Ratio: % of Months
- < 0.85: 4.7%
- .85-1.01: 5.0%
- 1.0-1.25: 34.7%
- 1.25-1.5: 19.3%
- 1.5-2.0: 15.4%
- 2.0-2.5: 8.9%
- > 2.5: 2.0%
From our data set and the distributions of monthly average platinum-gold ratios from January 1971 thru January 2017, I glean the following:
From a compendium of sources, the average crustal abundance of both metals is around 4 ppb. Based solely on this fact, platinum and gold should trade at about the same price.
And indeed, our compilation shows that for nearly 50% of the time since gold was decoupled from the world’s reserve currency and allowed to trade freely on exchanges, the price ratio has ranged from 0.85 to 1.25. That said, since January 1971, the average price of platinum has been $637/oz and gold has been $518/oz for an overall ratio of 1.23:1. Clearly there are other factors other than the nearly equal crustal abundances that account for this historic price relationship.
A variety of supply and demand factors cause platinum to trade at a premium to gold:
Fluctuations in the relative prices of platinum and gold are largely driven by:
Platinum functions both as a precious and industrial metal. It is usually tied to the price of gold in both short- and long-term trading patterns. In times of financial distress and economic turmoil, platinum tends to behave more like gold with widespread hoarding.
The platinum-gold ratio can be used to ascertain whether one metal is over- or undervalued with respect to the other. The current monthly average ratio below 0.85 is unusual and indicates that platinum is severely undervalued with respect to gold *
* The ratio recently hit 0.55 and remains near a record low.
- A ratio of less than 0.75 is a single outlier that occurred once during the second half of 1982 when overall ratios averaged 0.81.
- Ratios <0.85 are quite unusual at 4.7%. They occurred for two months in the first quarter of 1975, the aforementioned six months in 1982, in June-July of 1985, and for an ongoing run of 16 months that commenced in October 2015.
- Ratios from 0.85 to 1.0 constitute 15.0% of the record.
- Pt:Au from 1.0 to 1.25 is the most common range and comprises 34.7% of ratios since 1971.
- The ratios between 1.25 and 1.5 occur 19.3% of the time.
- Ratios from 1.5 to 2.0 make up 15.4% of the record.
- The 2.0-2.5 interval covers 8.9% of the months in our compendium.
- The 11 monthly outliers at >2.5 comprise 2.0% of the total record and have not occurred since 1971.
From a compendium of sources, the average crustal abundance of both metals is around 4 ppb. Based solely on this fact, platinum and gold should trade at about the same price.
And indeed, our compilation shows that for nearly 50% of the time since gold was decoupled from the world’s reserve currency and allowed to trade freely on exchanges, the price ratio has ranged from 0.85 to 1.25. That said, since January 1971, the average price of platinum has been $637/oz and gold has been $518/oz for an overall ratio of 1.23:1. Clearly there are other factors other than the nearly equal crustal abundances that account for this historic price relationship.
A variety of supply and demand factors cause platinum to trade at a premium to gold:
- Platinum is a much smaller market. Cumulative world production of platinum is estimated to be about 5% of gold (9400 tonnes versus 182,000 tonnes). From 1994-2014, 3700 tonnes of platinum were mined versus 52,600 tonnes of gold or about 7% (source: USGS).
- Platinum is largely an industrial metal. Catalytic converters, electronics, petroleum and chemical catalysts, medical technologies, and many minor uses constitute over 60% of its annual demand. Around 30% is used in jewelry and 10% for investment demand. Also, 30% of the annual platinum supply now comes from recycling, mostly from catalytic converters. Some demand is consumed and lost to the marketplace.
- Gold is overwhelmingly a precious metal; 90% is used in jewelry and investments and only 10% in industrial applications. An estimated 98% of all the gold ever mined in the world remains available and held in jewelry, by central banks, in private hoards, and as fabricated products (source: USGS).
- About 70% of yearly platinum mine supply comes from South Africa, a geopolitically risky country. Much new platinum is a by-product of nickel-copper mining and smelting; therefore, annual platinum production is dependent on the supply-demand fundamentals and prices of these primary metals.
Fluctuations in the relative prices of platinum and gold are largely driven by:
- the overall growth and health of the world’s economy and in the case of platinum, the automotive industry;
- labor, power, currency, and political issues in South Africa that cause major perturbations in the platinum supply;
- safe haven hoarding of gold and to a much lesser extent, platinum, in times of economic uncertainty and major geopolitical events; speculators moving in and out of paper markets of both metals (bullion exchanges, ETFs, and derivatives) and to a lesser extent, central bank trading of physical gold.
Platinum functions both as a precious and industrial metal. It is usually tied to the price of gold in both short- and long-term trading patterns. In times of financial distress and economic turmoil, platinum tends to behave more like gold with widespread hoarding.
The platinum-gold ratio can be used to ascertain whether one metal is over- or undervalued with respect to the other. The current monthly average ratio below 0.85 is unusual and indicates that platinum is severely undervalued with respect to gold *
* The ratio recently hit 0.55 and remains near a record low.
Elliott Wave
We use Elliott Wave theory in conjunction with cycle analysis to attempt to "crystal ball" what to expect going forward. We have included some basic information below for those who might be interested followed by our current interpretation/analysis.
The Elliott wave principle is a form of technical analysis that some traders use to analyze financial market cycles and forecast market trends by identifying extremes in investor psychology, highs and lows in prices, and other collective factors. Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871–1948), a professional accountant, discovered the underlying social principles and developed the analytical tools in the 1930s. He proposed that market prices unfold in specific patterns, which practitioners today call Elliott waves, or simply waves. Elliott published his theory of market behavior in the book The Wave Principle in 1938, summarized it in a series of articles inFinancial World magazine in 1939, and covered it most comprehensively in his final major work, Nature’s Laws: The Secret of the Universe in 1946. Elliott stated that "because man is subject to rhythmical procedure, calculations having to do with his activities can be projected far into the future with a justification and certainty heretofore unattainable."
The Elliott Wave Principle posits that collective investor psychology, or crowd psychology, moves between optimism and pessimism in natural sequences. These mood swings create patterns evidenced in the price movements of markets at every degree of trend or time scale.
In Elliott's model, market prices alternate between an impulsive, or motive phase, and a corrective phase on all time scales of trend, as the illustration shows. Impulses are always subdivided into a set of 5 lower-degree waves, alternating again between motive and corrective character, so that waves 1, 3, and 5 are impulses, and waves 2 and 4 are smaller retraces of waves 1 and 3. Corrective waves subdivide into 3 smaller-degree waves starting with a five-wave counter-trend impulse, a retrace, and another impulse.
In a bear market the dominant trend is downward, so the pattern is reversed—five waves down and three up. Motive waves always move with the trend, while corrective waves move against it.
In Elliott's model, market prices alternate between an impulsive, or motive phase, and a corrective phase on all time scales of trend, as the illustration shows. Impulses are always subdivided into a set of 5 lower-degree waves, alternating again between motive and corrective character, so that waves 1, 3, and 5 are impulses, and waves 2 and 4 are smaller retraces of waves 1 and 3. Corrective waves subdivide into 3 smaller-degree waves starting with a five-wave counter-trend impulse, a retrace, and another impulse.
In a bear market the dominant trend is downward, so the pattern is reversed—five waves down and three up. Motive waves always move with the trend, while corrective waves move against it.
Wave 1 (I): Wave one is rarely obvious at its inception. When the first wave of a new bull market begins, the fundamental news is almost universally negative. The previous trend is considered still strongly in force. Fundamental analysts continue to revise their earnings estimates lower; the economy probably does not look strong. Sentiment surveys are decidedly bearish, put options are in vogue, and implied volatility in the options market is high. Volume might increase a bit as prices rise, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts.
Wave 2 (II): Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and "the crowd" haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% (see Fibonacci section below) of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a three wave pattern.
Wave 3 (III): Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1.
Wave 4 (IV): Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three (see Fibonacci relationships below). Volume is well below than that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, fourth waves are often frustrating because of their lack of progress in the larger trend.
Wave 5 (V): Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received).
Wave A: Corrections are typically harder to identify than impulse moves. In wave A of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive. Most analysts see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market. Some technical indicators that accompany wave A include increased volume, rising implied volatility in the options markets and possibly a turn higher in open interest in related futures markets.
Wave B: Prices reverse higher, which many see as a resumption of the now long-gone bull market. Those familiar with classical technical analysis may see the peak as the right shoulder of a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The volume during wave B should be lower than in wave A. By this point, fundamentals are probably no longer improving, but they most likely have not yet turned negative.
Wave C: Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond.
Wave 2 (II): Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and "the crowd" haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% (see Fibonacci section below) of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a three wave pattern.
Wave 3 (III): Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1.
Wave 4 (IV): Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three (see Fibonacci relationships below). Volume is well below than that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, fourth waves are often frustrating because of their lack of progress in the larger trend.
Wave 5 (V): Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received).
Wave A: Corrections are typically harder to identify than impulse moves. In wave A of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive. Most analysts see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market. Some technical indicators that accompany wave A include increased volume, rising implied volatility in the options markets and possibly a turn higher in open interest in related futures markets.
Wave B: Prices reverse higher, which many see as a resumption of the now long-gone bull market. Those familiar with classical technical analysis may see the peak as the right shoulder of a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The volume during wave B should be lower than in wave A. By this point, fundamentals are probably no longer improving, but they most likely have not yet turned negative.
Wave C: Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond.
S&P 500 Weekly Elliott Wave Chart
For those who are new to Elliott wave, it is essential to understand as market participant psychology changes (and, as a consequence, the various waves unfold in specific patterns) objective analysis requires readjustment of counts as the waves unfold. Elliott wave is not a "crystal ball" but more a quantitative tool to analyze changes in market psychology as market conditions evolve. Elliott wave analysis can be quite confusing and intricate but in our experience we find it is best used as a "road map" towards the bigger picture.
Below is the current long term view of the equity market from 1929-Present. Clearly the 2008-2009 market decline was of such stature as to be historic (as "historic" as the 1929-1932 market crash). Given such, we have begun to think out of the box with respect to Elliott Wave as it has recently progressed.
In broadest terms markets cycle through 65-80 year "Grand Super-Cycles" (generally coinciding with generational demographic expansion/contraction). If one were to use the end of the 1929-1932 market crash/depression as the beginning point for a new Grand Super-Cycle, it could be argued a complete 77 year Grand Super-Cycle began in 1932 and ended in 2009. A 5 wave Super-Cycle advance (SC-1, SC-2, SC-3, SC-4, SC-5) occurred between 1932 and 2000 (68 years in length) followed by a 9 year Super-Cycle decline (SC-A, SC-B, SC-C) from 2000-2009 (culminating in the 2007-2009 market decline; the worst since the great depression). If this is the case we would have completed a full 77 year Elliott Wave Grand Super-Cycle pattern from 1932-2009 (5 wave Super-Cycle advance with a 3 wave Super-Cycle decline) and have embarked on a new 65-80 year Grand Super-Cycle beginning in March 2009.
We have marked this Grand Super-Cycle on the below chart with the 68 year SC-1 through to the SC-5 advance (1932-2000) followed by the 9 year SC-A, SC-B, and SC-C decline (2000-2009). If this is the case, an argument can be made the period from 2009-to-Present is unfolding as follows:
Below is the current long term view of the equity market from 1929-Present. Clearly the 2008-2009 market decline was of such stature as to be historic (as "historic" as the 1929-1932 market crash). Given such, we have begun to think out of the box with respect to Elliott Wave as it has recently progressed.
In broadest terms markets cycle through 65-80 year "Grand Super-Cycles" (generally coinciding with generational demographic expansion/contraction). If one were to use the end of the 1929-1932 market crash/depression as the beginning point for a new Grand Super-Cycle, it could be argued a complete 77 year Grand Super-Cycle began in 1932 and ended in 2009. A 5 wave Super-Cycle advance (SC-1, SC-2, SC-3, SC-4, SC-5) occurred between 1932 and 2000 (68 years in length) followed by a 9 year Super-Cycle decline (SC-A, SC-B, SC-C) from 2000-2009 (culminating in the 2007-2009 market decline; the worst since the great depression). If this is the case we would have completed a full 77 year Elliott Wave Grand Super-Cycle pattern from 1932-2009 (5 wave Super-Cycle advance with a 3 wave Super-Cycle decline) and have embarked on a new 65-80 year Grand Super-Cycle beginning in March 2009.
We have marked this Grand Super-Cycle on the below chart with the 68 year SC-1 through to the SC-5 advance (1932-2000) followed by the 9 year SC-A, SC-B, and SC-C decline (2000-2009). If this is the case, an argument can be made the period from 2009-to-Present is unfolding as follows:
- The market is currently within the early stages of Primary Wave III implying a long-term upwards trend for many more years.
- The market is currently within Major Wave ((3)) projecting upwards towards new all time highs.
- Intermediate wave ii wave completed in May 2019 and we are currently within intermediate wave iii expecting new all time highs.
Alternately, our original EWT weekly chart (shown below and our preferred count) we have been following since 2009 is annotated with "classic" Elliott Wave indications projecting we are within the ending stages of the 2009-present bull market (near the top of intermediate wave b of a wave IV 30% decline to be followed by a final wave V advance to new all-time highs to end the bull market from 2009).
At present we remained torn between 2 possible Elliott Wave counts:
- If the market is within Major Wave 3 as per the 1st chart, we would expect a large multi-year advance in Major wave 3. This would project much higher equity prices into the future.
- Alternately, if the have completed Primary Wave III of the entire bull market advance from 2009-2018, a Primary Wave IV is currently in process (a-b-c). At its conclusion (target near 2100); we would project a Primary Wave 5 advance to new all-time highs to end the bull market.
The difference between the 2 counts is either a continued "new" bull market (scenario 1) or the last stages of a 10 year bull market with a large bear market on the horizon (scenario 2).
Market Valuation
U.S. (NYSE) Margin Debt
We have been studying with interest the current margin debt on US markets. For those who are unfamiliar, margin debt is the amount of "loans" taken out by market speculators to leverage up their equity positions. During normal bull markets margin debt will increase as the market continues to climb. This increased margin debt amplifies equity market prices. However, at some point speculators become nervous and begin to reduce their margin positions. This reduction in margin is like letting the air out of a balloon and deflates equity asset prices.
As can be seen on the below graphic, both the 2000 and 2007 market tops were signaled in advance by tops in margin debt (margin debt not inflation adjusted on this chart):
As can be seen on the below graphic, both the 2000 and 2007 market tops were signaled in advance by tops in margin debt (margin debt not inflation adjusted on this chart):
The following chart (source: Doug Short) shows US equity margin debt adjusted for inflation. As can be seen, in both 2000 and 2007 inflation-adjusted margin debt peaked and then began to decline leading to the tops in the S&P 500 index. As such, margin debt rollovers acts as a good lead indicator of possible future market weakness.
Since peaking in early 2018 margin debt has shown a significant decline. A similar decline occurred in 2015 (and did not derail the bull market) but the recent decline is a concern given how late we are in the market cycle combined with the extreme levels of margin debt relative to past market cycles.
U.S. Equity market Valuation Models (as of October 2019)
(Source: D. Short)
Below is a graph representing 4 different long-term valuation measures plotted back to 1900 (118 years):
As of 30 September 2019 the average of these 4 measures places the U.S. stock market (S&P 500 index) as being 131% overvalued relative to its long term geometric mean. This remains the 2nd highest valuation in the history of the stock market going back to 1900. This level is well over 2 standard deviations above the mean and above the market peaks in both 2007 and 1929. It is only surpassed by the 2000 dotcom bubble peak.
- The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio
- The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
- The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
- The relationship of the S&P Composite price to a regression trendline
As of 30 September 2019 the average of these 4 measures places the U.S. stock market (S&P 500 index) as being 131% overvalued relative to its long term geometric mean. This remains the 2nd highest valuation in the history of the stock market going back to 1900. This level is well over 2 standard deviations above the mean and above the market peaks in both 2007 and 1929. It is only surpassed by the 2000 dotcom bubble peak.
Another popular valuation metric is know as the "Buffett-Indicator". In an interview with Fortune magazine back in 2001 Warren Buffett remarked "it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment."
The indicator measures the price of Corporate Equities (Mkt Cap) to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a ratio going back to the 1950's. As can be seen below, the ratio of equity prices relative to GDP currently stands at 142.1%. It recently exceeded the recent 2015 peak of 128.9% and is second only to the 2000 equity peak of 161.1% in terms of equity overvaluation relative to economic output.
The de-trended graph indicates it would take a -42% market decline to return valuations back to the long term detrended regression line (shown in red on the 2nd chart).
7-Year Asset Class Real Return Forecast
(Source: GMO LLC)
(Source: GMO LLC)
Each month GMO (Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co.) publishes a forward forecast for expected annual real rates of return (i.e. inflation adjusted) for a number of different asset classes with a 7 year forward outlook. They have historically had a very good track record (0.97 correlation) of estimating forward 7 year asset class returns based primarily upon current valuations combined with mean reversion. Charts are published following analysis of the previous months data.
I have followed GMO's methodology with interest for many years. In my experience I have found them to be conservative over the shorter term with a tenancy to make calls too early. HOWEVER, similar to Dr. John Hussman of Hussman Funds, they also tend to be right over the longer term. As such, I use their outlook as part of the valuation model within the ECAM 5 Factor model.
Above is their current forecast of expected real returns (after inflation) for the next 7 years broken down by asset class. It is clear based upon current market valuations GMO forecasts well below average annual investment returns in all asset classes with a 7 year forward time horizon (the dotted line is the historical real return of U.S. equities of +6.5% per year). This is important for those who may be soon retiring and expecting "average" returns on their equity and bond investments over the next 7 years. Current high market valuations make it a certainty forward returns over the next 7-10 years will be well below historical averages.
I have followed GMO's methodology with interest for many years. In my experience I have found them to be conservative over the shorter term with a tenancy to make calls too early. HOWEVER, similar to Dr. John Hussman of Hussman Funds, they also tend to be right over the longer term. As such, I use their outlook as part of the valuation model within the ECAM 5 Factor model.
Above is their current forecast of expected real returns (after inflation) for the next 7 years broken down by asset class. It is clear based upon current market valuations GMO forecasts well below average annual investment returns in all asset classes with a 7 year forward time horizon (the dotted line is the historical real return of U.S. equities of +6.5% per year). This is important for those who may be soon retiring and expecting "average" returns on their equity and bond investments over the next 7 years. Current high market valuations make it a certainty forward returns over the next 7-10 years will be well below historical averages.
12-Year US Equity Real Return Forecast
(Source: Hussman Funds)
(Source: Hussman Funds)
S&P 500 12 year forward projected annual returns (Mkt Cap-GVA)
S&P 500 12 year forward projected annual returns (margin-adjusted CAPE)
Balanced Portfolio 12 year forward projected annual returns
(60% in the S&P 500, 30% in Treasury bonds, and 10% in Treasury bills)
(60% in the S&P 500, 30% in Treasury bonds, and 10% in Treasury bills)
Dr. John Hussman uses a unique measure of estimating future equity returns over a 12 year period based upon market capitalization relative to gross corporate value added. He claims the measure has a 91.9% correlation to actual S&P 500 future returns over a 12 year horizon. As per his previous explanations:
"Across the scores of measures I’ve evaluated or created over three decades of research, the ratio of non-financial market capitalization to corporate gross value added (essentially corporate revenues, including estimated foreign revenues, excluding double-counting of intermediate inputs) is best correlated to actual subsequent market returns over a 10-12 year horizon".
As can be seen on the above chart, since 1950 his approach has correlated quite closely with future returns (blue line is his estimates and the red line the subsequent returns 12 years later). Currently his calculations project a "buy and hold" rate of return on the S&P 500 index of -0.6% nominal per year out to 2028 should one employ a "buy and hold" strategy. Clearly tactical asset allocation will be required as we transition to the back half of the current market cycle.
His recent conclusion:
" At present, the valuation measures that we find best correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 total returns are at the most offensive levels in history, matching or eclipsing the 1929 and 2000 extremes. Even considering the level of interest rates, economic growth, and other factors, the S&P 500 currently stands about 2.8 times the level that we believe the index will revisit over the completion of the current market cycle, implying an interim market loss something on the order of -64%. Moreover, the most reliable valuation measures uniformly imply the likelihood of negative total returns in the S&P 500 over the coming 10-12 year period."
Clearly the high level of current market valuations does not bode well for the "buy and hope" investor.
"Across the scores of measures I’ve evaluated or created over three decades of research, the ratio of non-financial market capitalization to corporate gross value added (essentially corporate revenues, including estimated foreign revenues, excluding double-counting of intermediate inputs) is best correlated to actual subsequent market returns over a 10-12 year horizon".
As can be seen on the above chart, since 1950 his approach has correlated quite closely with future returns (blue line is his estimates and the red line the subsequent returns 12 years later). Currently his calculations project a "buy and hold" rate of return on the S&P 500 index of -0.6% nominal per year out to 2028 should one employ a "buy and hold" strategy. Clearly tactical asset allocation will be required as we transition to the back half of the current market cycle.
His recent conclusion:
" At present, the valuation measures that we find best correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 total returns are at the most offensive levels in history, matching or eclipsing the 1929 and 2000 extremes. Even considering the level of interest rates, economic growth, and other factors, the S&P 500 currently stands about 2.8 times the level that we believe the index will revisit over the completion of the current market cycle, implying an interim market loss something on the order of -64%. Moreover, the most reliable valuation measures uniformly imply the likelihood of negative total returns in the S&P 500 over the coming 10-12 year period."
Clearly the high level of current market valuations does not bode well for the "buy and hope" investor.
Global Asset Class 10-year Expected Nominal Return Forecast
(data as of 30 September 2019)
(Source: Research Affiliates)
(data as of 30 September 2019)
(Source: Research Affiliates)
Below is the projected 10 year nominal (not inflation adjusted) returns for the majority of global assets.
Data continues to point to Emerging Market and EAFE (Europe, Africa and Far East) equities as providing the greatest returns over the next 10 years with Government Treasury bonds (worldwide) showing minimal returns due to low global interest rates.
Data continues to point to Emerging Market and EAFE (Europe, Africa and Far East) equities as providing the greatest returns over the next 10 years with Government Treasury bonds (worldwide) showing minimal returns due to low global interest rates.
Cycle Commentary
At left is a 20 year chart of the seasonal monthly performance of the Dow Jones Global Index.
The number at the top of the column is the percentage of time the month is positive and at the bottom is the average % gain/loss for the month.
As can be seen, over the past 20 years the period October-April yearly offers the highest potential global equity market returns (cumulative +5.5% average return) while the period May-September offers little in total return (-2.1% cumulative average return).
The number at the top of the column is the percentage of time the month is positive and at the bottom is the average % gain/loss for the month.
As can be seen, over the past 20 years the period October-April yearly offers the highest potential global equity market returns (cumulative +5.5% average return) while the period May-September offers little in total return (-2.1% cumulative average return).
In the interest of moving more towards more recent market action broken down by region, below is the past 10 years seasonal returns for our selected benchmark ETF's:
- Global Equities (VT)
- U.S. Equities (VTI)
- European Equities (VGK)
- Asia Pacific Equities (VPL)
- Emerging Market Equities (VWO)
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It is interesting to note over the past 10 years the month of September has begun to perform better than it has in the past. Also it is interesting to note the exceptionally poor equity returns in Europe during the month of June with very strong returns in July. This is an interesting phenomenon that can be used to potentially time regional equity exposure.
S&P 500 Seasonality (historical 50 year look-back annual seasonality)
"Turning to the months ahead, the performance for January and February is rather lacklustre compared to the months that bookend this start of year period. The S&P 500 Index has gained an average of 0.8% and 0.2%, respectively in the first two months of the year, based on the past 50 periods. These months are easily the weakest of the best six month trend for stocks. The large-cap benchmark has closed positive just over half of the time (56%) in January and February, making this winter lull little better than a flip of a coin in terms of the frequency of success.. Returns for January have ranged from a loss of 8.6% in 2009 to a gain of 13.2% in 1987. Performance tends to gyrate in the middle of January with the majority of the strength achieved in the first few days and last few days of the period".
Ned Davis Research 2019 Composite Model
Composite directional model forecast for the S&P 500 index based upon the following parameters equal weighted:
- 10 year Decennial Market Cycle (Year 9)
- 4 year Presidential Market Cycle (Year 3)
- 1 year Annual Seasonal Market Cycle
U.S. 4 Year Presidential Election Cycle
*2019 is Year 3
As can be seen on the chart above, historically since 1928 the 2nd year of the 4 year Presidential Cycle tends to provide the worst returns of the 4 year cycle.
While we do not make investment decisions strictly based upon cycle analysis, we are cognizant of the historical nature of these cycles and tend to be a bit more wary as they approach.
While we do not make investment decisions strictly based upon cycle analysis, we are cognizant of the historical nature of these cycles and tend to be a bit more wary as they approach.
Presidential Cycle S&P 500 returns (inc. dividends):
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1988-Year 4: +12.40%
1989-Year1: +27.25% 1990-Year 2: -6.56% 1991-Year 3: +26.31% 1992-Year 4: +4.46% 1993-Year 1: +7.06% 1994-Year 2: -1.54% 1995-Year 3: +34.11% 1996-Year 4: +20.26% 1997-Year 1: +31.01% 1998-Year 2: +26.67% 1999-Year 3: +19.53% 2000-Year 4: -10.14% |
2001-Year 1: -13.04%
2002-Year 2: -23.37% 2003-Year 3: +26.38% 2004-Year 4: +8.99% 2005-Year 1: +3.00% 2006-Year 2: +13.62% 2007-Year 3: +3.53% 2008-Year 4: -38.49% 2009-Year 1: +23.45% 2010-Year 2: +12.78% 2011-Year 3: +0.00% 2012-Year 4: +13.41% 2013-Year 1: +29.60% |
2014-Year 2: +11.39%
2015-Year 3: -0.73% 2016-Year 4: +11.96% 2017-Year 1: +21.83% 2018-Year 2: -4.38% 2019-Year 3: TBD |
U.S. Recessions and Equity Performance
Since 1929 there have been 14 recessions in the U.S. as follows:
Below is the equity performance during each of these periods:
